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who knows the star stocks in the great rebound of 1975?
- Thread starter henry
- Start date
Quote from henry:
I'm now studying the history of the America's stock market in 1975. But I found everyone lose the memory of this year, but all still remember the crash of nifty fifty in 1974. Anybody knows which sector leaded the rebound in 1975?
What I recall is that the "nifty fifty" were leaders in the move into 1976. That was about it though for most of these companies. Stocks I remember from the general period were oil stocks. These were big winners over the next number of years. Houston Oil and Minerals (HOI), Mesa Petroleum (MSA) are a couple that come to mind. Mesa was Boone Pickens company. Teledyne was a fantastic company (TDY) for many years. Henry Singleton the CEO was a near legend at the time. Tandy (TAN). I wonder how many guys remember Rival Manufacturing (RIVL), the inventor of the crock pot. Or some of the CB radio stocks like Hy-Gain (HYGN?) or Johnson Controls. Then there was the gambling stocks around the legalization of gambling in New Jersey....Bally Manufacturing (BLY), and Resorts International (RSI?).
Small computers became a "thing" back in the 70's. Not sure about 1975 though. One that I recall was Pertec...it was one fantastic stock. What ever happened to them?
In 1975 everthing was so cheap that many stocks doubled literally overnight if they were bought at the bottom...so it was hard to tell who the "leaders" were. The move from the bottom in December 1974 to the intermediate peak in July 1975 was about 60% in terms of the down alone.
OldTrader
Quote from henry:
I'm very interested in the rebound of 1975, but I found it's very difficult to find the materials depicting this rally. In his How to Make Money William O'Neil said the best acting industry sectors in 1974 were oil and catalog showroom. Anybody have an idea?
Best acting industry? I have no idea...but take a look at my post above.
Here's the thing: October thru December of 1974 was one of THE major bottoms of this the 1900's. Stocks were literally thrown away. The Dow was at 550. Seems cheap right? Except that no one knew if they would be in business tomorrow. There was lots of predictions around at the time of Dow 300.
So at the bottom almost any stocks you looked at was trading at an small PE, large dividend yield (if it paid one). Again, when the rebound started some stocks caught just right doubled practically overnight. There was a massive rally which lifted literally everything. Determining a leading group then, or now, was a joke. Nearly everything put in a major rally.
Certainly though the oils were a leader for quite a number of years. Specific stocks mentioned above. The nifty fifty were leaders...they were big companies that the institutions could get money into quickly. So that stocks like DEC, PRD, IBM, HWP (this was Hewlett Packard back then), XRX, etc had massive rallies.
Eventually out of that era stocks like TDY, TAN, BLY, HOI....these were some of the big winners of the day.
OldTrader
Quote from henry:
Did the crude oil and CRB drop in 1974 and rebound in1975? I can't found the materials in this period in Bloomberg terminal.
No one was following the CRB back then. I'm not even sure it existed. There were no crude oil futures. But chances are you can do a google on oil and find the cash prices over the era. People weren't actively following oil prices in those days. That came later.
OldTrader
I was rather young at the time, but one thing I noticed in my research was that the UK stockmarket went up literally 100% in about 6 weeks in early 1975. The market had fallen 75% over the previous 2 years, and at the bottom, the P/E of the FTSE all-share was 3.8, and the dividend yield was over 11%. Now that's what you call cheap!
cutten, do you know what happened at that time? Cheap shares alone would not trigger the rebounce. I know the federal rate was dropped by 2% in H1 of 1975, but why?
cutten, would you share your research on the stock market at that time, if you have? I'm now doing some research but know too little about this history.
cutten, would you share your research on the stock market at that time, if you have? I'm now doing some research but know too little about this history.
Quote from henry:
I get it. Thank you, old trader. BTW, how long have you been a trader? Nobody I met still know those day till now.
I made my first trade in 1966. Had some time off for Vietnam just after that. By 1974 I entered the brokerage industry....almost exactly at the bottom.
OldTrader