who is your fav trader to follow?

[Beyondbreakeventrading]

This is very true. So, doesn't it stand to logic that making random entries would work?

surf

I'm sorry, I overlooked your reply. I am in limited agreement. If you limit that question to whether you should buy or sell, I believe you are correct, and Peter Brandt said it best. Brandt, who has averaged around a 46% return for decades with a max drawdown of 8%, says that a trader could have made a very comfortable living taking the other side of his trades. By this he means predictions are a small part of the picture, primarily because you are on the right side half the time just by chance.

The decision to buy or sell is the easy part. I think the much more difficult side of the business is timing your trades. Entry/exit placement are definitely something that cannot be done randomly.

The final component is having a process that keeps your human instinct out of trouble spots where you can assume you won't follow your rules.

I think that most traders spend 90% of their time trying to get on the right side of the trade and 10% on everything else, when in fact the business works the other way around, opinions are easy to come by, timing, money management, and psychology are not.

 

[marketsurfer]

I'm sorry, I overlooked your reply. I am in limited agreement. If you limit that question to whether you should buy or sell, I believe you are correct, and Peter Brandt said it best. Brandt, who has averaged around a 46% return for decades with a max drawdown of 8%, says that a trader could have made a very comfortable living taking the other side of his trades. By this he means predictions are a small part of the picture, primarily because you are on the right side half the time just by chance.

The decision to buy or sell is the easy part. I think the much more difficult side of the business is timing your trades. Entry/exit placement are definitely something that cannot be done randomly.

The final component is having a process that keeps your human instinct out of trouble spots where you can assume you won't follow your rules.

I think that most traders spend 90% of their time trying to get on the right side of the trade and 10% on everything else, when in fact the business works the other way around, opinions are easy to come by, timing, money management, and psychology are not.

Thanks. I don't know who peter brandt is-- what service verified the 10 years of average 46% and what decade was this? Best, surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Don't you think it is ironic that you defend VN (even though he blew up twice), and you belittle Zanger's accomplishments (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Zanger) without hesitation. Then you get upset when people fairly criticize VN. Maybe you should take a look in the mirror and be honest with yourself about whether your biases are clouding your judgement.

I openly admit vn has tons of flaws. But his accomplishments speak for themselves.

Huh? You are comparing a newsletter writer who hasn't made more in his lifetime than VNs art collection cost? Not to mention the estate, trading for Soros, trading with jim rogers, teaching a dozen plus leaders in the money management field--not to mention being one of the fathers of stat arb. -

name just one world class hedge fund manager who credits zanger with anything. It doesn't exist.

There is zero comparison.


Have u seen Zangers results over the last 5 years?

 

[sprstpd]

Have u seen Zangers results over the last 5 years?

Did you see that one time, no wait two times, where VN went bust?

 

[Beyondbreakeventrading]

Thanks. I don't know who peter brandt is-- what service verified the 10 years of average 46% and what decade was this? Best, surf

No, I didn't do any due diligence on his track record. He started trading for his own company in 1980. The validation purportedly used his tax returns over a 20 year period. I was incorrect, he had a 41% rate of return, with the worst year an 8% drawdown. He has outrageous performance numbers but he's obsessed with risk management. I found him by accident, reading his book, Diary of a Professional Commoditity Trader.

I found this in a quick search but have to dig deeper to find out who did the accounting:



"Peter's performance as a proprietary trader stands for itself. Consider the following:
Average annual compounded rate of return (based on IRS tax reporting) = 41.56%
Average annual compounded rate of return (based on VAMI calculations) = 77.8%
Growth of initial investment of each $1,000 (through 2009) = $334,817
Profitable years = 14
Unprofitable years = 4
Best year = +604.7%
Worst year = (8.4%)
Ratio - size of average profit in profitable years divided by size of average loss in unprofitable years = 7.6 to 1
Ratio - Total gains in profitable years divided by total losses in unprofitable years = 26.8 to 1"

 

[volpunter]

Lol this site is so full of BS. Just unbelievable. The stories are getting more and more inventive. Hilarious.

Back in the 90s, I upgraded my seat(have done this few times in my life, LOL) to first class to be able to sit next to Jim Rogers for 2.5 hours and totally changed how I viewed long term trading, he didn't give me a system but gave me ideas that I never considered. Long term, I most likely be doing what most others do now if it wasn't for that chance meeting. So although Jim Rogers not day trader, he is the Only trader/investor I listen to now but often I am already in the commodities side of already, and he is often early when talking about stocks.

When it comes to day trading, my last mentor who offered more in lines of disciple but he did teach patterns his own he discovered was John Brown out of Fairfield Iowa, now he teaches Tai Chi I believe most of the time. Think he has his first nickel, uncanny how price will stop in areas he would call beforehand, wished I learned that, LOL. Used very tight stops. Hard to understand and short on patience, in his youth he was world class surfer.

 

[Handle123]

Lol this site is so full of BS. Just unbelievable. The stories are getting more and more inventive. Hilarious.

I am so happy I can provide you entertainment, YOU MAKE MY DAY BABY. LOL

 

[Hooti]

First, a few disclaimers

I have never tried this.., so what I'm about say is my opinion...
In theory..., entering randomly.., with prudent risk management.., sounds doable. In practice..., I don't believe it is -
================

Anyone / everyone - feel free to pick this apart

RN

Alas I have over 30 people on "ignore" so I'm missing parts of the conversation. Over last weekend I suggested Jas-in-hbca try a homework assignment of random entries.

Linda Raschke initially provoked the thought. This is certainly not a way to trade live.

However, if you try this with sim trading -- it might reveal things about your trade management; and encourage one to improve it.

It might also help you not over-think or micro manage entries if your trade management is successful on it's own to any degree.
............................
...................
.......

As to the OP and this tread in general:

If you are a beginner...

Go to the general "forums" page near the upper left hand corner of this page. Then do a search (on the upper right hand side) though the forums for the member "Lajax" and look at his threads on NQ-price action.

You will see a process of learning from observing <--> back testing <--> forward testing <--> sim trading <--> live trading. And going back and forth as necessary until your stats carry across. You don't have to follow DB Phoenix (as Lajax did) to use this process. Whoever you follow, working a process like this... is what being a trader actually is.

And since you have to work out your own way to trade regardless, IMO the process is as much or more important than who you follow.

 

[Beyondbreakeventrading]

Alas I have over 30 people on "ignore" so I'm missing parts of the conversation. Over last weekend I suggested Jas-in-hbca try a homework assignment of random entries.

Linda Raschke initially provoked the thought. This is certainly not a way to trade live.

However, if you try this with sim trading -- it might reveal things about your trade management; and encourage one to improve it.

It might also help you not over-think or micro manage entries if your trade management is successful on it's own to any degree.
............................

As to the OP and this tread in general....

If you are a beginner...

Do a search in ET for "Lajax" and look at his threads on NQ-price action.

You will see a process of learning from observing <--> back testing <--> forward testing <--> sim trading <--> live trading. And going back and forth as necessary until your stats carry across. You don't have to follow DB Phoenix (as Lajax did) to use this process. Whoever you follow, working a process like this... is what being a trader actually is.

And since you have to work out your own way to trade regardless, the process is as much or more important than who you follow.

VERY interesting idea. Linda Raschke also said the following:

“I put a great deal of effort into getting the best entry price possible… If your entry timing is good enough, you won’t lose much even when you’re wrong.” - Linda Bradford Raschke

These would seem to conflict, but hey, it couldn't hurt to conduct some experimental training. I have always said a trader could improve their game by using a coin flip to choose whether to buy or sell. It teaches one to ignore what they think their probability should be and just do the right thing with the results.

I'll give her thought experiment it's due, it certainly would require you to trade what you see and stick to your money management.

 

[Hooti]

VERY interesting idea. Linda Raschke also said the following:

“I put a great deal of effort into getting the best entry price possible… If your entry timing is good enough, you won’t lose much even when you’re wrong.” - Linda Bradford Raschke

last week I posted a video by LBR in the tread in the "journals" section:
jasinhbca's quest for discipline, knowledge & profits

You can go there and see it, it's just a few min long. Actually, here it is

In the video she indicates that trade management is more impt than the entry, tho both matter of course.

IT's what you do with the concept that was interesting to me. I'm not going to repeat myself, the discussion around it is on J's thread. I do think this is a kind of cool idea and it has changed my trade management and increased my confidence, relaxation and trust level around my entries.


<<<<<<<<<..............>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Wait WAIT!!! Is that the right video????!
Or is that the one where she says that if you can't rub your tummy and pat your head at the same time... you'll never make it as a trader?

<sorry, just that's the first thought when I look at the video before it starts!>