Who is this dumb bitch that McCain picked as VP Nominee?

[ZZZzzzzzzz]

Facts are facts, your writings demonstrate racism and bigotry.

There is no reason to identify a person as a Jew or as a black, or any other racial or other ethnic quality.

However, you go out of your way to say they are a Jew, or black, when you don't like their actions.

The reality is that anyone's actions are not a product of the color of their skin nor their ethnicity, but a product of their mind.

There is no black mind, no Jew mind, no Mexican mind.

There is culture which helps to shape the mind, but people act against their culture all the time.

Racism and bigotry are the tools of someone who wants to blame the actions of others on that which they were born with and cannot change.

You are a racist and a bigot, and your "statistical analysis" is as far from color blind as possible.

Someone doesn't have to hate all blacks, or all Jews to be racist or a bigot.

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I don't "hate" ANYONE based on racial or ethnic criteria.

I make my money by accurately measuring probabilities. I'll make a trade that has a 90% chance of losing if I think the payoff is greater than 10-1. I'm an agnostic statistician. I view the expectation of outcomes through the lense of probability.

In Chicago the odds of an African-American sticking a gun in my face-which has happened to me twice-are statistically around 50 times greater than a white guy doing the same. I'd be pretty friggin' ignorant if I didn't assess my options more carefully when passing two black kids than when a white guy walks up to me. Given that at this moment one out of ten black males between 18-25 are incarcerated and that one out of three black males have been incarcerated my judgment/caution is validated by more than just empirical observations.

It's the same with secular Jews. Am i predisposed to being an anti-Semite? Hardly. My aunt is not only married to a Jew but my first cousin is a practicing Jew. My cousin is the sister I never had. Even still I'd be statistically ignorant to not recognize that the majority of American Jews and the VAST majority of non religious Jews are liberal, leftest socialists. Do I “hate” them? Yep. Do I hate them because they're Jewish? Not a bit. At the CBOT there was a substantial number of Jewish traders. By and large they were free market Reagan Republicans. Unfortunately those conservative, Milton Friedman schooled Jews are kicking back with their 2mil and not writing anti-Christian values opinion on ET and in the MSM......

 

[jonbig04]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I don't "hate" ANYONE based on racial or ethnic criteria.

I make my money by accurately measuring probabilities. I'll make a trade that has a 90% chance of losing if I think the payoff is greater than 10-1. I'm an agnostic statistician. I view the expectation of outcomes through the lense of probability.

In Chicago the odds of an African-American sticking a gun in my face-which has happened to me twice-are statistically around 50 times greater than a white guy doing the same. I'd be pretty friggin' ignorant if I didn't assess my options more carefully when passing two black kids than when a white guy walks up to me. Given that at this moment one out of ten black males between 18-25 are incarcerated and that one out of three black males have been incarcerated my judgment/caution is validated by more than just empirical observations.

Good points pabst. I agree. The last paragraph I don't know, but I've had similar experiences and I came to same conclusions above.

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

Quote from jonbig04:

Good points pabst. I agree. The last paragraph I don't know, but I've had similar experiences and I came to same conclusions above.

Well too bad then, because according to ZZZ that makes you a racist.

 

[jonbig04]

Quote from ZZZzzzzzzz:

Facts are facts, your writings demonstrate racism and bigotry.

There is no reason to identify a person as a Jew or as a black, or any other racial or other ethnic quality.

However, you go out of your way to say they are a Jew, or black, when you don't like their actions.

The reality is that anyone's actions are not a product of the color of their skin nor their ethnicity, but a product of their mind.

There is no black mind, no Jew mind, no Mexican mind.

There is culture which helps to shape the mind, but people act against their culture all the time.

Racism and bigotry are the tools of someone who wants to blame the actions of others on that which they were born with and cannot change.

You are a racist and a bigot, and your "statistical analysis" is as far from color blind as possible.

Someone doesn't have to hate all blacks, or all Jews to be racist or a bigot.

He may or may not be a racist or a bigot. i don't know, but facts are facts and there is nothing wrong with basing conclusions on facts. It's true what you say about the mind and culture and I agree, however its the black culture that I have problems with. And its that culture that needs to change and it starts with their families values. Pretty much quoting Obama verbatim there. I don't believe there is any inherent differences between us at all. Skin color is just skin color. However I believe that, for whatever reasons(s), black parents (or parent) are less likely to impress the importance of the fundamental values needed for success. I think the reason so many blacks are in jail or whatever begins with the lack of values instilled in them by their parents.

 

[ZZZzzzzzzz]

Based on self reported surveys, it is estimated that 75% or so of taxpayers cheat on their taxes.

Cheating on taxes is a crime, right?

Do you look at white folks and say "they are probably criminals."

By the way, I disagree with you on the parents being the problem. The root problem is more often found in the peer group pressures, and a situation where there are few choices.

Many black athletes have told stories where their athletic ability, good coaching, and opportunity kept them out of trouble.

Quote from jonbig04:

He may or may not be a racist or a bigot. i don't know, but facts are facts and there is nothing wrong with basing conclusions on facts. It's true what you say about the mind and culture and I agree, however its the black culture that I have problems with. And its that culture that needs to change and it starts with their families values. Pretty much quoting Obama verbatim there. I don't believe there is any inherent differences between us at all. Skin color is just skin color. However I believe that, for whatever reasons(s), black parents (or parent) are less likely to impress the importance of the fundamental values needed for success. I think the reason so many blacks are in jail or whatever begins with the lack of values instilled in them by their parents.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

...I make my money by accurately measuring probabilities. I'll make a trade that has a 90% chance of losing if I think the payoff is greater than 10-1. I'm an agnostic statistician. I view the expectation of outcomes through the lense of probability...

Accurately measuring probabilities, eh? Of future outcomes? That makes you quite special, particularly since an accurate probability distribution (or any probability distribution, for that matter) doesn't actually exist for future outcomes. That's the stuff of mathematical games, not markets. The best you can do with markets is go with a "balance of probability," which is better defined as a tendency without numeric specificity in an environment not of probability, but of uncertainty.

As for your willingness to accept a 90% chance of losing (however you may have arrived at that "accurate" probability estimate for future market outcomes) provided that the payoff is greater than 10:1 (ditto on the "accuracy"), you fail to recognize that risk involves more than just "expected" value, particularly when you are dealing with a finite account balance. Expected value, particularly when it relates to low probability outcomes, needs to be tempered with a better appreciation of variance in order to make an "accurate" assessment of risk/return and risk adjusted return. Stated differently, not all "expected values" are created equal. Although you speak of probabilities and such, I'm guessing you didn't actually study statistics in school.

Seems to me that you are making money in spite of yourself and your "numeric specificity."

 

[jonbig04]

Based on self reported surveys, it is estimated that 75% or so of taxpayers cheat on their taxes.
Cheating on taxes is a crime, right?
Do you look at white folks and say "they are probably criminals."

Cheating on taxes doesn't affect me because it...doesn't affect me. having read that and assuming its true, if i walk down the street than yes when I see a white person I would think "they probably cheat on their taxes". So yes it works the EXACT same way. What's your point?

By the way, I disagree with you on the parents being the problem. The root problem is more often found in the peer group pressures, and a situation where there are few choices.
Many black athletes have told stories where their athletic ability, good coaching, and opportunity kept them out of trouble.

Well I'm imply not an expert on the issue, but it will take a lot of facts to convince me that the root of the problem isn't in the home.

 

[RichardRimes]

Quote from Mercor:

My guess is the Fetus(child) agrees with Sarah.

fetus wouldn't care.....since everyone else seems to want to speak for fetus(s) thats my opinion

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Accurately measuring probabilities, eh? Of future outcomes? That makes you quite special, particularly since an accurate probability distribution (or any probability distribution, for that matter) doesn't actually exist for future outcomes. That's the stuff of mathematical games, not markets. The best you can do with markets is go with a "balance of probability," which is better defined as a tendency without numeric specificity in an environment not of probability, but of uncertainty.

As for your willingness to accept a 90% chance of losing (however you may have arrived at that "accurate" probability estimate for future market outcomes) provided that the payoff is greater than 10:1 (ditto on the "accuracy"), you fail to recognize that risk involves more than just "expected" value, particularly when you are dealing with a finite account balance. Expected value, particularly when it relates to low probability outcomes, needs to be tempered with a better appreciation of variance in order to make an "accurate" assessment of risk/return and risk adjusted return. Stated differently, not all "expected values" are created equal. Although you speak of probabilities and such, I'm guessing you didn't actually study statistics in school.

Seems to me that you are making money in spite of yourself and your "numeric specificity."

If a batter is hitting .330 the market will at some point value a 1 in 3 probability of him getting a base hit in his next at bat. It's then my job to quickly assess how well does he do against this pitcher, in this ballpark, with men on base ect. Maybe in like circumstances he's only a .167 hitter. A market example of how I ROYALLY fucked up is last Thursday. I had a major move completion level at 1145 basis Sept ES. A high risk/reward level. My work makes ZERO assumption (other than position sizing) if the market will indeed stop there-I'm only concerned with how big a move is possible to compensate for my stop. Since I'm generally a 3-1 bettor and since in this instance I needed a 12pt stop-confluence of support lower too-I looked for like days/trend reversals and saw that a 44pt rally was the probable bounce distance if I wasn't stopped out. There were other fractals suggesting 70pts. I started this thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=137014&highlight=1145

Did I make the right play? FUCK NO. The right r/r was buying OTM calls. The options market like you looks at price distribution based on a pretty narrow base of assumptions. The fact is we already had a solid fractal to decision make from:Aug/07 opex. Same friggin' play. What happened between Thursday and Friday's open? Many SPX calls increased100 fold! Even though I had a “good” day in terms of money my r/r assessment was so inept that I felt like quitting forever. As you know I have a much different style than you or how I traded in the pit. I'm a home run hitter and last week all I did was hit a double against the one pitcher I handle best.

And yes: No statistic courses (well one I sucked at it) and no doubt my success or lack of (I also had a 1.3 million dollar drawdown years ago) is predicated upon extreme volatility. In a churning choppy small range market I'm as bad as anyone could ever be.

 

[Mike805]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I don't "hate" ANYONE based on racial or ethnic criteria.

In Chicago the odds of an African-American sticking a gun in my face-which has happened to me twice-are statistically around 50 times greater than a white guy doing the same. I'd be pretty friggin' ignorant if I didn't assess my options more carefully when passing two black kids than when a white guy walks up to me. Given that at this moment one out of ten black males between 18-25 are incarcerated and that one out of three black males have been incarcerated my judgment/caution is validated by more than just empirical observations.

Please tell me you understand the difference between environmental circumstances versus genetic ones? This ties into the nature versus nurture argument. I'd venture to say the the statistics you claim are a result of poverty and social circumstance, not SKIN color and genetic predispositions as you seem to imply. Poverty and circumstance cause people to do very disturbing things - no work and no education will cause many to turn to crime.

Your entire premise ignores this fact of societal inequality regarding income and quality of life, hence you are making judgments based purely on skin color and/or ethnicity. This is what makes you a racist/bigot.