The Republican race is wide open. McCain, the media party favorite, is the clear front runner, but I think his appeal is all name recognition. Once primary voters are exposed to his recent record, they will have second thoughts. Has a nasty temper and is thin-skinned.
Guiliani has a huge problem in that his police commissioner, that thug that Bush wanted to appoint head of Homeland Security, just copped a plea to a bribery charge and seems to be mobbed up. Rudy is way too far left for Republican primary voters anyway.
Frist has been pretty much a failure as Majority Leader, lacks name recognition and, to me at least, doesn't seem to have much in the way of command presence. He's got some messy issues with the family business HCA as well.
Romney is an outstanding leader, super smart and has a record of success in the private and public arenas. He's a moderate to conservative who got elected in Massachusetts, so he has broad appeal. The issue with him is his Mormon religion, which should not be a factor but could prove troublesome with evangelicals.
George Allen is a favorite of conservatives, but his constant efforts to be Reaganesque often come off as merely mushy and are getting tiresome. Needs to find an issue that he can demonstrate some passion on.
Newt Gingrich is a smart guy and good commentator but was a disaster as Speaker. Out of the game too long now to be a serious contender.
Rice is a joke. Never held public office and no one knows her views on most issues. Plus, she is linked to the Iraq disaster.
The problem for Republicans is that they have turned off their core supporters on a host of issues from spending to immigration to Iraq. Their key winning bloc is the religious right, and they are not pleased with what they have received in exchange for putting Republicans in charge of all three branches of government. The election shapes up as a kind of game of chicken between them and the party regulars, with the regulars feeling they will never vote for the party of gay marriage and abortion on demand. The religious bloc by contrast knows that if they sit out, Republicans lose. Maybe they lose anyway.
This race probably shapes up as a lengthy fight between McCain and Allen, unless McCain scares voters with a temper tantrum. Romney odds on VP choice.
This business in CT is the funniest thing since the Commies in Soviet Union all became Social Dems.