who is still profitable in the forex?

[achilles28]

Quote from baron193:

Best thing i read here in a long time achilles, your last few posts,
i know what you're saying is right, because (even though we probably use different PA/TA techniques) it is exactly my expirience as well, what i like the most is your truthfull statement
that it takes years, not just a few months, as most new to this would expect.
10 second charts are incredible tools...at the right times

Thanks. I try not to give too much away, yet point newbs to the right universe of information.

The market is interesting in the sense that once a trader knows what they're doing, the market dictates which time frame to look at. Not the trader. Weird, eh?

Single time frame analysis leads to guaranteed losses (for anything under a 1-hourly). I recommend traders use second charts to learn price action, patterns, and basic mechanics, then apply those lessons to higher time frames. All patterns work on every time frame. Its like Russian dolls.

Every successful trader I know trades that way - long term for direction, short term for entries. Provides the best risk:reward, and doesn't fry the emotions like scalping. I don't scalp, btw. But certainly use 5, 10, 30 second charts for entries, when appropriate.

And yea, it takes years. I'm approaching year 7 (I think). It blurs after a while. Took a long time to really, really get it.

Best of luck.

 

[cabletrader]

Quote from achilles28:


Single time frame analysis leads to guaranteed losses (for anything under a 1-hourly).

Interesting posts achilles28 but sorry based on personal experience I'd have to disagree with the above.

If you said 'more time frames = more opportunities' then I'd agree (today is a good example, I've been sitting on my hands for the past 4 hours!) but that's just lost opportunity as opposed to loss.

I scalp trade the m15 pretty much exclusively intraday and by looking at other time frames it would contradict my short-term view too often, I don't think I would ever make a trade, I'd be forever talking myself out of it and be a typical victim of analysis paralysis!

For longer term positional trading it's probably a different story but that's not my field of expertise unfortunately, I'm too impatient

 

[achilles28]

Out of anyone here, I take your word for it, Cable.

Perhaps I could have been clearer in the sense that sticking to one time frame, leads to many (unnecessarily) missed opportunities, and perhaps, losses.

We might trade similar ways, but according to my strategy, on any given day, long-term signals might be generated on the half hour - exclusively - all session. Not on the 1 hour or 15. Granted, thats a rare exception, but if a trader were to theoretically focus on any one time frame besides the 30 mins, they'd be screwed. And could very well take trades in the wrong direction. My point is that the market is fluid, and that pinning down to one time frame - in my experience - misses valid signals and can lead to losses (since valid signals that cue the preponderance of desired direction), are missed or overlooked.

Granted, i'm just talking around the meat and potatoes, but u get my point, I'm sure.

 

[cabletrader]

Quote from achilles28:


We might trade similar ways, but according to my strategy, on any given day, long-term signals might be generated on the half hour - exclusively - all session. Not on the 1 hour or 15.

I return the compliment, there are only a handful of traders on these boards who are making it (or have the potential to make it) and I believe you're one of them.

You could have a very good point with the above, just looking across other time frames I've seen a few set-ups for my strategy today (I've given up for the day, interest kinda wanes after the first 5 hours of no trades, lol)!

I'm always cautious of advising people to change time-frames mid trade but I don't think you meant that.

No, I get your point and if I had the nerve to change my socks in the middle of the world series I would do it, I'm just scared in case I jinx the smoke-and-mirrors strategy which I seem to have got away with for so long



Edit: Wooohoooo, a trade for a mega 1 whole pip! I'm done!

 

[achilles28]

Quote from cabletrader:


I'm always cautious of advising people to change time-frames mid trade but I don't think you meant that.

No, I get your point and if I had the nerve to change my socks in the middle of the world series I would do it, I'm just scared in case I jinx the smoke-and-mirrors strategy which I seem to have got away with for so long



Edit: Wooohoooo, a trade for a mega 1 whole pip! I'm done!

Now thats keeping tight stops!

Yea, man. I wouldn't believe for a second there's anything to jinx. After looking at your blotters, seems you really know whats going on.

My logic for using multiple long term charts to key entries (15 mins, 30, 1 hr, 2 or 4 hour) is simple - market amplitude expands and contracts. Usually, if trend is present in a lightly trending market, a 1 hour or 2 hour will capture trend best (and therefore generate valid signals). In a fast trending market, a faster time frame - like 15 mins - might be best. Perhaps on those tidal wave days, a 5 mins may be best to capture the "long-term" intra-day moves (ie 50 pips).

The wider the range from swing high to low in the trend determines whether its safe to trade retracements. Personally, anything more than an expected 25 pip retracement is a gimmie, and not knowing whether the retracement will turn into a reversal, I'll ride the retracement and if i get another entry signal to get back in on the major trend, I'll get in.

I suppose it depends on the quality of TA/patterns/price action/ or entry signal generator used by the trader.

But thats just me. Seems like you're killing it man! Congrats.

 

[cabletrader]

Quote from achilles28:

Now thats keeping tight stops!

Yea, man. I wouldn't believe for a second there's anything to jinx. After looking at your blotters, seems you really know whats going on.

My logic for using multiple long term charts to key entries (15 mins, 30, 1 hr, 2 or 4 hour) is simple - market amplitude expands and contracts. Usually, if trend is present in a lightly trending market, a 1 hour or 2 hour will capture trend best (and therefore generate valid signals). In a fast trending market, a faster time frame - like 15 mins - might be best. Perhaps on those tidal wave days, a 5 mins may be best to capture the "long-term" intra-day moves (ie 50 pips).

The wider the range from swing high to low in the trend determines whether its safe to trade retracements. Personally, anything more than an expected 25 pip retracement is a gimmie, and not knowing whether the retracement will turn into a reversal, I'll ride the retracement and if i get another entry signal to get back in on the major trend, I'll get in.

I suppose it depends on the quality of TA/patterns/price action/ or entry signal generator used by the trader.

But thats just me. Seems like you're killing it man! Congrats.

Thanks for the insight, I really must try looking at longer time frames and holding trades for a bit longer than 30 seconds. I can see the same patterns on higher time frames but those wide stops scare me big time!

It's a psychological problem for me, if I see profit I just have to take it, it's like having a nervous twitch or something, and having a stop loss more than the price of a small car freaks me out, lol.

Trading is a snoozefest for me again today, it's just so sloooow

Anyway, have a great trading day!

 

[achilles28]

Quote from cabletrader:

Thanks for the insight, I really must try looking at longer time frames and holding trades for a bit longer than 30 seconds. I can see the same patterns on higher time frames but those wide stops scare me big time!

It's a psychological problem for me, if I see profit I just have to take it, it's like having a nervous twitch or something, and having a stop loss more than the price of a small car freaks me out, lol.

Trading is a snoozefest for me again today, it's just so sloooow

Anyway, have a great trading day!

Yea, I'm about to sleep. T'was a bit of a snore past 3am, today.

Its funny you mentioned small take-profits; I could have sworn i had seen blotters with 100, 200 and 300+ pip profits!

:eek: :eek:

 

[cabletrader]

Quote from achilles28:

Yea, I'm about to sleep. T'was a bit of a snore past 3am, today.

Its funny you mentioned small take-profits; I could have sworn i had seen blotters with 100, 200 and 300+ pip profits!

:eek: :eek:

Cumulative intraday pips sure, it's an exception if I'm in any longer than intraday for <10 or 15 pips per trade though.

My longest single trade and claim to fame was this Aud/Usd trade for 650 pips, I stayed awake for 17 days, lol (ok I slept but it was the first thing I thought about when I woke up!). True to form I came out too early as usual, I'm getting better though

 

[achilles28]

sitting on black trades, is a good problem to have.

 

[Brandonf]

I finished up my project with Bo and so I'm working with Tim now. Not exactly sure what it will be, or when it will be..but Bo just opened up a $500 FX account with the goal of bringing it to $10K.

He surveyed a bunch of traders to find out what type of problems real traders have, has done the process several times now and is going to do it in public. Should be interesting to watch. I'm not sure if he plans to create a product around it or not, if he pulls it off and he is smart he will..but anyway there are people who are making money in FX....