Who is receiving/expecting TARP funds

The experience from Friday 27 Feb is that it looks like (as of 26 Feb) the share prices of US financials did not price in the conversion of preferred stock to common stock.

I am reviewing preferred stock investments made by the US Govt under TARP to provide examples of financials where the preferred stock investment is large when compared to the market cap of the company.

As an example, market cap of BAC at a share price of $3.95 at Friday's close is $19.82 billion. However the US Govt has already made a preferred stock investment in BAC of $45 billion ($25 billion in October 2008 under TARP and then anotehr $20 billion in the January 2009 bailout).

Web sites used to collate this information are

http://www.propublica.org/special/show-me-the-tarp-money

http://projects.nytimes.com/creditcrisis/recipients/table

http://bailout.uslaw.com/?page_id=353

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Assets_Relief_Program

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/list-companies-planning-participate-tarp/story.aspx?guid={A56A737D-0B6F-4C72-B97B-4CAFC806E83E}
 
The only that I know is, if Treasury doesn't make its move fast, the market is goingo to be just very very but very ugly.

Citibank today down at lower than a $, no way bros
 
Looks like someone beat me to it with this type of research:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/122514-pinpointing-the-most-attractive-tarp-investments?source=yahoo

however the obvious point is that the numbers change every time these companies' stock prices change.

For example, my calculations show that FITB's TARP investment was 425% at a stock price of $1.39 this afternoon, but reduced to 215% at the 26 February high of $2.75.

In any case, my analysis, for companies with a TARP investment of $400 million or over, shows that the following are the weakest financial services companies, and most likely to suffer "TARP overhang":

FITB, HBAN, CIT, WBS, BAC, MI
(all above 200%)

ZION, BPOP, RF, STI, (all above 140%)

CMA, SNV, COF (all above 97%)

KEY, PNC, WFC, DFS (all above 50%)

I excluded C and AIG from this list because of their "special situations".
 
It just didn't work. With all the free money they still crashed. Real money still wants out. It just wont work.
 
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