My point is simply that sometimes it's possible to do a better analysis than what is reflected in the price of an option at a given point in time. The final outcome for the MM is irrelevant.
Quote from rew:
That depends. Did the underlying move steadily up or down, without a lot of large swings? Then the realized volatility was low, and the market maker should have had little trouble buying or selling shares of the underlying to keep the delta at 0. In that case he probably made money on the option sale, even if it is now worth 3x what he sold it for. So, no, the option wasn't necessarily under priced a week ago.
Of course sometimes the market makers get the volatility wrong and lose money. But you can't just look at the change in an option price to decide if they made or lost money, they aren't playing the same game as the retail traders.
