Who is Jack Hershey and what's his method?

The systems on Wealth Lab, as one of the best developers for that platform in the country, have a few fatal flaws.

Earlier versions would find the optimal set of values for the system on any stock you clicked on. You would find different values for every stock, and, in the end, you'd have a massively curve fitted system that would trick you into thinking that it had predictive value. It doesn't, no more going forward than watching one talking head on TV would.

The biggest flaw in the WL systems is that they allow some of them to remain on the site despite being self tuning curve fits. These can convince less than smart people that the systems work. They're just tricks.

They're all about stochk 5 2, stoch k 5 2 sma, stock 14 1, stochk 14 1 smas, MACDH whatever period works, MACDH curve fitted period winners.

They'll find the best value until something works. There's hundreds of values to manipulate until you find something that works. If you give it another 20 years it might finish it's self tuning and find you the next losing system.

Oh, and, Jack, it's nothing personal. Spydertrader wrote most of your scripts. They have the average statistics of losing money. A not very hard thing to do.
 
It's more about probability than anything. You're bound to find something that works if you give it 1 million combinations to work from. At least a few of those will make you think it works, when, in actuallity, they're fake outputs merely attributable to chance.

It has taken me a long time to know what curve fitting is.

In fact, I think every indicator ever created can be curve fitted or made to work on any dataset, given reasonable complexity in the variables. It has turned me off enormously to technical indicators because of this particular period on wl4.wealth-lab.com

On these Jack Hershey scripts, are some of the most verbose long winded scripts ever written. They have thousands of areas that could effect outcomes. With that level of intricacy, you will find something to work with, but it won't ever last.
 
Jack thinks stochastics is a leading indicator:
I see the Stoch 5, 2,3 fast line (blue for me) go up through 50%. It is a leading indicator of price and it tells me one thing only. Sentiment has shifted from Distribution to Accumulation.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1302778&#post1302778
Quote from bwolinsky:

The systems on Wealth Lab, as one of the best developers for that platform in the country, have a few fatal flaws.

Earlier versions would find the optimal set of values for the system on any stock you clicked on. You would find different values for every stock, and, in the end, you'd have a massively curve fitted system that would trick you into thinking that it had predictive value. It doesn't, no more going forward than watching one talking head on TV would.

The biggest flaw in the WL systems is that they allow some of them to remain on the site despite being self tuning curve fits. These can convince less than smart people that the systems work. They're just tricks.

They're all about stochk 5 2, stoch k 5 2 sma, stock 14 1, stochk 14 1 smas, MACDH whatever period works, MACDH curve fitted period winners.

They'll find the best value until something works. There's hundreds of values to manipulate until you find something that works. If you give it another 20 years it might finish it's self tuning and find you the next losing system.

Oh, and, Jack, it's nothing personal. Spydertrader wrote most of your scripts. They have the average statistics of losing money. A not very hard thing to do.
 
Quote from Trader666:

Jack thinks stochastics is a leading indicator:
I see the Stoch 5, 2,3 fast line (blue for me) go up through 50%. It is a leading indicator of price and it tells me one thing only. Sentiment has shifted from Distribution to Accumulation.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1302778&#post1302778

I'll be honest, Trader666, I don't know you, but what I've read in this thread I don't think I'd pay attention. No offense.

It'll be stoch 5 2 3 now, but years later, the combination might be 71 3. Just keep chugging on the 80 quintillionth combination....
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

You obviously didn't read the technicalities. There's much more to it than that.

LIKE: Curve fitting for you, automatically, and calling it a system.

Do you try door number one? Three? Eight Thousand? How about door number eight billion?

There's trillions of combinations to try with the scripts on wealth lab.

You are aware that none of those scripts are used in the manner you tested them for profitability? You are aware that the information they were developed to provide -which is unrelated to their buy and sell signals generated- is used as partial inputs in a multistep process?

As an aside you can see Spyders entry and exit signals/criteria, (which came from information off of those chart scripts, not the chart script buy/sell signals) posted the day before trades were taken in Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal. IIRC, Spyder had over 100% ROI for that journal (1 year), but you can prove that to yourself by looking at the journal postings.

-Au
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

You obviously didn't read the technicalities. There's much more to it than that.

LIKE: Curve fitting for you, automatically, and calling it a system.

Do you try door number one? Three? Eight Thousand? How about door number eight billion?

There's trillions of combinations to try with the scripts on wealth lab.


FYI

We archive scripts in various places. There are many many script writers. The scripts are used as add ons in various platforms that do not have the appropriate software support. This is being pointed out to you.

Below, in green, are the basic characteristics of the three applications (SCT, PVT and SR, from small to large capital application) of the pool extraction algorithm.

The opportunity defines the application of capital. Three applications provide for a complete financial investment and trading set that can handle an unlimited amount of capital. Profits are moved from the smallest most restricted application SCT) to the equities position trading (PVT) and then to the larger unlimited application (SR). SCT is used for conducting pool extraction at roughly five times the commodities index market offering capacity. The money velocity of trading is high and at a rate of up to forty profit segments a day. This leveraged trading yields a multiple of the ATR daily. PVT trading conveniently handles 100,000 share units of approximately 200 stocks in the US market at any given time. The PVT rotation of capital, optimally, is 100 cycles per annum. Each individual application is in the 2.5 million dollar range and the optimized hold period approximates 2 ½ days. SR trading is relatively slow at a rate of 4% a week and duration of 4 ½ weeks; unlimited capital may be applied since a sector rotation strategy is used. With this market opportunity knowledge acting as an incentive it is clear what the time value of money is. If and when doing the work of learning purposefully, it is very worthwhile to make a fully dedicated effort.

Many people in a lot of categories explore "Who is Jack Hershey and what's his method?". Some of them are gracious and some are demanding. There is a filter involved and it tends to separate people away from those who are in the "passing it forward stage". This is good because " passing it forward" is the step where a person really acquires excellent skills and knowledge about making money.

The relationship of a person's due diligence to that of the provider of due diligence is quite clear to those of us who have been purposeful learners and those who have passed it forward in the last four generations. Due diligence is done by the seeker and not the people who use the methods.

You did your wealth lab exercise. And its value has been explained to you along with why it has the value it does.

There are many whiners here and they make trite demands from the vacuum they occupy. If they don't get what they want, they demean as the OP did and the whiners continually do.

So you wind up in a trap of your making and misunderstanding. Why?

There are several approaches for coming to an understanding of how the pool extraction paradigm works. Analysis. Synthesis. They both work.

The principles are few.

1. Always be on the right side of the market.

2. To make money you have to be in the market. therefore, the optimum is to be in the market at all times.

3. You can only exceed the capacity of the market by so much. I use 500%.


The above is common knowledge in my opinion.

For 1., I find that most people, information and literature I read tells the story like yours and the OP's. The super key ingredient invloved is that as the right side of the market changes, there is a period of overlap.

Marshalling the reasoning power of the mind to discover and deal with this is uncommon, evidently. Most people cannot observe change in markets and the fact that it does not go on all the time in the sense of an operating point of a regime that has a lot of variables.

For 2. the principle is self evident. But I notice people spend time on the sidelines and these periods begin right after they do what is called an "exit". They have not reasoned out that they cannot make any more money if they exit. Your data is all based on exits. The algorithm and it's coding and scripts for its applications do not do exits and go to sidelines but instead it reverses or crosses over into a higher money velocity.

For 3, capacity determines how big you can play. In ES several things show the capacity clearly: tic volume, DOM depth; fractal volume; the T&S place holders: units, tens, hundreds and thousands; cascading; blow out rate; inbalance of the book; volatility; drift rate of premium; sideline levels of smart money; etc, etc. Sweeping idle capital out of accounts is a major activity as is tempering running at five times capacity. The latter is mostly a matter of harmonic analysis or synthesis.


What closes minds and what prevents minds from receiving input are very important issues.

You said you contributed on pages 24 and 25, if I remember. The OP is on a phishing expedition because he wants something.

You could not contribute and, still, you cannot figure that out.

The OP wants the wrong thing and he is going to get it in spades.

Closed minds and minds that cannot receive input.

A guy whose name includes "increase" got a wake up call. What tipped the balance? And what mission did he mount to satisfy his wants? Maybe seeing 44,000 dollars made on 20,000 dollars of capital tipped the balance. For most people this is patentedly impossible for an advanced beginner/intermediate to do. For even more people it has never been done nor ever will be.

What was increases mission for a few hours? He is suspicious that some people, over the last 50 years, have learned to do this. He is correct and a lot of them are also experts who can trade at the capacity of the market simply because they have the capital so to do.

This thread is a small blip on the time line of 50 years. It will return to complacency as have the others created by people with closed minds and minds that cannot receive input. How do forums and threads that get 1 to 2 million hits a year or 4 or 5,000 hits a day go on for the designated year or the designated syllabus (all the while having the detractors deleted out)? These are open minded forums on the part of the providers and the recievers. Roles advance too.

Exchange of information is of little value simply because that is not how learning occurs. Learning comes from drills. A drill is a purposeful thing that is repeated by the receiver.

The OP espouses that he "locked up" a PA method he thinks he figured out.

Its just like a guy in C2 says he does X, and Y. he is running a bait and switch. Humorously speaking, some people are following it and others are critiquing it. So none of these people can recognize it is a bait and switch. Why not? All are examples of closed minds and mnds that cannot recieve inputs.

Is there anyway to repair these minds that are on input IGNORE? Obviously not. That is not going to happen because it is too late.

Also look at the whiners whose esteemed purpose is protecting n00bs. They have closed minds that cannot accept input and they are advocates for those who show up with open minds to learn. Can the n00bs whose minds are undifferentiated recognize these kinds of protectors? As time passes the n00bs inference grows in direct proportion to his ability to differentiate as a consequence of the drills he is informally or formally undertaking.

Here the OP and you are each doing drills. You each made up your drill. You are beginning to differentiate more and moar according to the dictates of the inference your made up drills dictate. By now both of you are closed to most input and you are, inductively growing your long term memories to differentiate in ways that are counterproductive and become more and more of your inference in your perception.

Getting off these horses is not going to happen and it is a consequence of your past choices.

Always be on the right side of the market; always be in the market; use you earned capital to trade at the capacity of the market.

How do you think a broker feels at the end of the day when she had netted 1.7 million (on 100,000 shares in the sell range of 28 dollars) over 11 accounts, four of which she knew were in the name of adult mentally changed people? She was a little emotional (tears) on the phone after the 4 1/2 hours work.
 
Honesty is very important and its nice how you've come clean with ET about your obsession :)

Quote from Trader666:



Am I embarassed at myself for only posting about Jack? YES, but I still cannot help myself. I could have put him on ignore years ago but then I would never post on ET. I'm not capable of contributing anything else so I guess I will keep on following Jack where ever he posts. It's my mission, what else can I say.

 
Quote from jack hershey:


The opportunity defines the application of capital. Three applications provide for a complete financial investment and trading set that can handle an unlimited amount of capital. Profits are moved from the smallest most restricted application SCT) to the equities position trading (PVT) and then to the larger unlimited application (SR). SCT is used for conducting pool extraction at roughly five times the commodities index market offering capacity. The money velocity of trading is high and at a rate of up to forty profit segments a day. This leveraged trading yields a multiple of the ATR daily. PVT trading conveniently handles 100,000 share units of approximately 200 stocks in the US market at any given time. The PVT rotation of capital, optimally, is 100 cycles per annum. Each individual application is in the 2.5 million dollar range and the optimized hold period approximates 2 ½ days. SR trading is relatively slow at a rate of 4% a week and duration of 4 ½ weeks; unlimited capital may be applied since a sector rotation strategy is used. With this market opportunity knowledge acting as an incentive it is clear what the time value of money is. If and when doing the work of learning purposefully, it is very worthwhile to make a fully dedicated effort.

I don't think you've gone over sector rotation here, other than mention of it. Is it more of position trading a basket of stocks according to their sector, or using sector funds themselves?
 
Quote from jack hershey:

Use sector rotation.

Observe the relative positions of the sectors in the context of time.

Use three periods (see the standards set by IBD). They use 197 sectors.

Track the rise of sectors vs the fall of sectors. The best processing combo is the Blocks Player drag and drop which lets you use EOD or longer Hemscott FA data on their 238 sectors as arranged in major and minor sectors.

The specific flow upward of sectors has a critical place where the price and P/E ratios of and in the sector is about to change. (rising).

Here you see the leader and lagger equities within sector.

The price delta begins to move just after this stage.

the usualy technique is the watch leaders in the sector and position trade the laggers.

The price action gives you an IT hold (use channel annotations) to see the phase change.

Phase change is better defined by WJO in HTMMIS. The TA characteristic is low volatility coupled with low volume. C and H is possible over half the time. Use 13 week duration for the C and H.

Once a new phase begins it looks like a "popularity contest. Well, it is.

The hold is for 4 to 6 weeks to creme the profits at a rate of 4% to 6% a week as the this transition ensues. There will be either a plateau or a pull back on lower vol and then lower volatility. It is shrt and the new channel traverse width is determined. You can cycle in and out peiodically.

The feature of this low velocity trading is that you can scale in and out with T&S size blocks over several days. Do not trade more than 10% of cumm vol on these moves.

For short term trading the limit of 100,000 shares per position does not apply. You can go as far as you want but do consider the institutional and management part of the float which is locked up. The more the better to assure a higher beta of the laggers of the sector.

Sorry this is brief. We are planning to cover this after expert levels of of PVT and SCT are in the bag by the end of 2007. Sweeping profits from SCT to PVT ultimately causes a need for sector rotation when sweeps of PVT are required due the the 100,000 share PVT limit. The same basic template of pool extraction applies to all three methods. See journals by going from PVT to SCT.

We are doing a conversion from IBD to Worden or a Worden supported alternative (As part of a new platform as yet not completed) over the year.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1385404#post1385404
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Sector analysis is a rich field and resource.


Unfortunately, I do not look at it in the area of interest that you have stated.

There are two areas that can be very profitable:

the first is the opposite of the reversion stuff. That is, sector rotation. If you watch some of the standard sources you can see how the reporting shows sectors coming into prominence and sectors going out of favor.

Considering that within sectors there are leaders and laggers there is another advantage.

P/E ratios can be used as part of this analysis.

The second area is a killer area for the reason that profits can be hyper for the first few cycles, well over twice the usual potential.

This is the phase change phenomena. The deal is to use an anticipatory indicator of phase change. The better indicators for this are "unusual" applications of existing work.

Most money making is a routine where the potential is an established thing. Both of these techniques come ino play as subordinate to the blunt force and high velocity trading.

A trader may reach capacity on his streams of capital running in position trading. At that time he can periodically go to sector rotation for his "big" money. Count on 2 to 4% a week with a 4 t 5 week trading cycle.

Sometimes a trader can wish to bear down for a couple of seasons (do not think Summer); here he can focus on the first several swings of a stock going through a phase change. what this means is that the daily take on a hold is often in the lowest of two digits. This is a kind of trading that is majorly influenced with odd harmonics and, therefore take a heavy hand to act in a timely manner.

Et sort of focuses on "trading" so as you say the sector business is kind of out of the ball park for most. If ET were more oriented to makig money and the strategies for a comprehensive view of a career (meaning doing it as an amateur over a long period of time to get rich), then this topic could replace several of the forums now part of ET.

At some point in time there may be enough people overlapping the HF kind of money andd yet they do not feel the traps that limit performance of hedge funds need to be placed upon them.

It would be like having Stevie money and no limitations like Stevie created for himself. You might need a few college students part time but you could do sector rotation like running the table in billiards (once a year). You would be doing 20 of 240 sectors and running 2 to three streams in each of the 20 sectors to handle 600 million.

No one has picked up on this in the either the trade nor the academic journals. As you suggest they are looking at reversion instead. Right now Fuqua, Sloan and Wharton are smelling something but it is tough to depart from the party line.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1308223#post1308223
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