If a stock price = metric x multiple, what are the time varying characteristics of those two factors through your period?
From a relative standpoint, how do equities look as compared to other asset classes (namely fixed income)?
Who has Knowledge to read this SP 500 index chart ?
- Thread starter TradeTune
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From a relative standpoint, how do equities look as compared to other asset classes (namely fixed income)?
I saw a video where Raoul Pal discussed how he plotted prices of assets against money supply I think it was. It was consistent. Same thing with real estate. The only asset classes that outperformed was BTC and Nasdaq.
Point is that equities are just keeping pace with the money supply and hence inflation. In the past 2 years, the money supply has exploded.
I wonder what will happen when most people figure this out.
Point is that equities are just keeping pace with the money supply and hence inflation. In the past 2 years, the money supply has exploded.
I wonder what will happen when most people figure this out.
The Fed went ballistic printing more money under the Cares act than they had over the last 7 recessions going back to the 70's.
even if index goes up it is known which will go up and which will go the most.
it makes sense to buy the index.......not stocks
if you say something fishy and the index should not go up so much then you are deciding what the market should do.
looking at this chart alone there can be doubt that we are looking at another rise and probably 6900 will be hit in the same time frame or around that time...........
we can only trade in hindsight.....
if the index, let us say....stays in 300 point band for next one year THEN i will change my prediction
the big companies are getting bigger........size matters.........it is difficult to compete with Microsoft Walmart........so many small companies are disappearing which means stock supply is disappearing....
which means stocks as a whole has no place to go but up
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6900? On what time frame? You are the last person on this forum to be giving advice on what the stock indices are going to possibly do.
Have a steaming hearty cup of STFU on this subject. Thank you.
Your job as a trader is not to assess the craziness or sanity of the market or of a market index. That's the job of an analyst or a commentator. Your job is to take advantage of it the best way you can via trading.
You first said:
1. The gain from year end 2008 (beginning of 2009) to year end 2019: 2327,53 index points / 258 %.
To gain some perspective - this followed a massive sell-off in the market and was boosted by QE and unprecedented central bank support worldwide.
2. The gain for the last 2 years, i.e., year end 2019 to present date using Friday 26th closing price: 1363,84 index points / 42 %.
So, your claim that the S&P500 gained as much these last two years as the previous 11 years is not correct.
That said - the gains we've seen these last two years are incredible considering the state of the world economy. This year's high reading on the S&P marks a 26,30 % yearly gain making it the 3rd best year these last 20 years and among the best years ever.
PS: This is using closing prices. If you calculate the price change from the bottom in March last year it's closing in on the last 11 years in nominal points, but still considerably less in percentage change.