Quote from knifecatcher:
I am only speaking about intraday trading ES emini. All these trend traders would always say these dumb-ass counter-trend traders are throwing money at them to create this huge trend. Where do you think that money is coming from? They took it from the trend traders previously. It would be best if one can be a switch hitter but I think it is hard.
I don't think trading counter-trend is just an ego thing. The actual problem is counter-trend works and it is far more consistent than trend. When it doesn't work, people don't know how to stop themselves from pushing the buttons. The keys are good entry (small risk) and basic money management.
You can also go countertrend on a smaller time frame while going with the trend on the larger time frame if the trend is strong but you have to be extremely patient waiting for the pullback (good entry technique) because the price that everybody gets in is a bad price.
According to my numbers, it is statistically better strategy for intraday trading ES but people are not robots and they over-bet in adverse situation (when they are losing). My understanding is good countertrend strategy is dangerous because the trader is less attuned to taking losses. The best strategy I saw is not indicator-based so the computer can't help with automation.
If you know how to handling losses, there is a good chance your countertrend strategy works better than any statistics you read about anywhere because winners don't talk about it.
Just MHO.
You first have to specifically define the trend and then understand that specific trend only exists on that particular chart. Traders stumble when they start trying to read trends using multiple timeframes. What is a trend on one chart is countertrend on another.