Who else thinks a Correction or CRASH may be coming? My top call #2 1/9/2021

KCalhoun

KCalhoun

I think the froth ends soon and a major correction will occur within 2-3 weeks.

This is only the second time I've made a top call ... the first time I was right, last year a couple of weeks before the February/March crash.

I may be wrong, but I fully expect a major drop under 3550 by late January. Thoughts?

I found this interesting:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/car...ul-correction-and-is-hedging-accordingly.html

This is not trading advice nor recommendations, just my personal opinion.
 
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Good morning KCalhoun-I'm not allowed to make market calls or offer trading advice, so I can't respond to your question, even though I would love to. I would like to ask what trade you have placed to profit from this prediction. Or if you have not yet, what will you do and what will be the trigger?
 
KCalhoun said:
I may be wrong, but I fully expect a major drop under 3550 by late January. Thoughts?
More...

no up....is definite....how much, i do not know obviously but the trend is up......200 points up my wild guess ...but because of the bull up move, it may cool off a bit and then continue

obviously it is better to lose your opinion than your money and i will lose that opinion very fast, if the need ARISES

down side maybe 3550 if disaster strikes

nobody know what the market will do but if does go below 3550,then it will be bought and end up 5000-5500 by end of the year..or may next year.

if it hits 4123 by end of january then it will be 3200 by may and then 4800 by december....

this is one i favor.....

because the situation is not clear......and no one is going to aggressively sell the market down or buy it up
disclaimer: forgive me but i only spent 5 minutes on this analysis and none of my money....so do not commit capital on my account

in markets .....the weak are eliminated without mercy......so i try not be weak trade small
 
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Robert Morse said:
Good morning KCalhoun-I'm not allowed to make market calls or offer trading advice, so I can't respond to your question, even though I would love to. I would like to ask what trade you have placed to profit from this prediction. Or if you have not yet, what will you do and what will be the trigger?
More...

Hi - I never offer advice nor recommendations either, as I am a publisher not a registered investment advisor.

I am currently long several inverse ETFs and etns including UVXY SQQQ TZA SDOW FAZ small size as I posted yesterday.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/posts/5292664/

I will scale up at 2day highs. I traded inverses successfully during last year's drop but lost thousands trying to bottomfish them during the rally post-March.

My trading goal is to make winning day and swing trades during the next drop.
 
Trying to predict the direction of the stockmarket is a fool's errand. How many ET trolls have made bold predictions of a stockmarket crash and the stockmarket just roared even higher? When the big boys (brokers, mutual funds, hedge funds, banks) decide they will crash the stockmarket, it will go tumbling down. That is 100% sure. Worrying about a stockmarket crash wastes valuable time and trading opportunities. I will continue to trade and follow the trend. That is the only thing that matters. If the market crashes, you can always short stocks so, no biggie.
 
Thank you. I've been on Elite Trader for a long time. Once a month or more a member makes predictions for a market drop and then you find out they do not have the conviction to risk real money on those predictions. Anyone can blurt out predictions, it quite another thing to follow through and have a real cost for being wrong and to profit when right. For me, I have been wrong a high percentage of the time when I expect a drop, so now I just de-risk and wait, willing to miss out. I'm also not looking to make a living from trading or investing. If I were, I would feel the need to do something more proactive.


KCalhoun said:
Hi - I never offer advice nor recommendations either, as I am a publisher not a registered investment advisor.

I am currently long several inverse ETFs and etns including UVXY SQQQ TZA SDOW FAZ small size as I posted yesterday.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/posts/5292664/

I will scale up at 2day highs. I traded inverses successfully during last year's drop but lost thousands trying to bottomfish them during the rally post-March.

My trading goal is to make winning day and swing trades during the next drop.
More...
 
KCalhoun said:
I think the froth ends soon and a major correction will occur within 2-3 weeks.

This is only the second time I've made a top call ... the first time I was right, last year a couple of weeks before the February/March crash.

I may be wrong, but I fully expect a major drop under 3550 by late January. Thoughts?

I found this interesting:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/car...ul-correction-and-is-hedging-accordingly.html

This is not trading advice nor recommendations, just my personal opinion.
More...
I do not believe a crash or correction is imminent as long as fed backstop is in place and lawmakers continue pushing liberal relief packages. There is no place to park money other than capital markets. At the moment good news is good bad news is even better kinda deal. The more bad news the more money to print. Trade the market and reduce propensity to hold overnight. Looks like mkt is eagerly awaiting the 2000 stimulus. It seems like we have perfected how to engineer the markets from falling.
 
KCalhoun said:
I think the froth ends soon and a major correction will occur within 2-3 weeks.

This is only the second time I've made a top call ... the first time I was right, last year a couple of weeks before the February/March crash.

I may be wrong, but I fully expect a major drop under 3550 by late January. Thoughts?

I found this interesting:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/car...ul-correction-and-is-hedging-accordingly.html

This is not trading advice nor recommendations, just my personal opinion.
More...
When you say under 3550, you are referring to the SPX?
I've collected some reports about the Feb 2018 crash and have been analyzing them to find what common factors were involved. You can find them with some googling. I will consider your scenario in my monte-carlo rough-volatility simulator
 
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