So, he's equating this to crash lows?
Who called the buy right when Russia struck?
- Thread starter dickey7
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So, he's equating this to crash lows?
Have to hold through the bs swings if anything the Oil stocks I trade were negatively correlated with WTI at times this week. Plus I was keenly aware of the earnings reports coming. In general, earnings reports often are followed by drops in the stocks lately, but not in Cdn energy. The public and analysts are badly underestimating the strength ( eg Baytex reported 0.98 vs 0.12 expected ). Plenty of volatility so I think the trick is dump the ones barely moving because they all drop on the bad days.
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To be fair, the market did drop considerably as tensions were increasing last week and did drop more than 100 points following the start of the invasion.
The rally started long after the invasion had started.
That’s why profitable trading and calls are very different from each other.
The rally started long after the invasion had started.
That’s why profitable trading and calls are very different from each other.
History suggests that in most geopolitical events markets go down initially then the entire move cancels within a few months if not sooner. The difference here is US markets already corrected and things happen quicker in this environment. Markets may bounce around on news still but getting overly biased on either direction is likely a -EV approach except maybe long volatility. I was unclear if my long Oil, long Nat Gas, long Gold exposure would work but I suspected it would be one of the better strategies in any outcome ( including a smaller loss if everything went south ). In theory long Gold would work on an invasion but so far it's been kind of a useless trade unless you sold within 2 minutes of open on the Tuesday. I'd still pile into that trade if things got ugly.
Count 55 days from the high in 1929 and 1987. What happened?
Well, I dunno. I guess there was some kind of climax low at day 55?
But 29 was a bear market... maybe not such correlation?? Besides, the major markets the US had different "top" days this time.
But 29 was a bear market... maybe not such correlation?? Besides, the major markets the US had different "top" days this time.
Might have a second chance here…. ??
Remember, you have to gamble right in this war time. Or you can get crushed.