who are we playing against as retail traders?

It is pretty easy to see where stops will accumulate. A short term barrier will develop and people put stops just outside that barrier.

Suppose a "low" is 100" if you can use say 200 contracts to move past that barrier (overwhelm the book very short term) and hit the stops at 99-97, and then use 150 contracts to go the other way,

On the way down you clear all the shorts that covered, and they are not ready to short again before you cover your 200 and add 150 more long, so you run it back up. Then others see the low being tested "successfully" and jump in on the Long side, at least for awhile. Then you sell your 150 into the rally in parts.

It is called a "flush" I believe. There is also a "ramp job" where there is a false breakout. Then there is the counter moves to these. There are not that many players who can move a block trade of 200+ contracts. And there are those who do not bother because they move 1000 or 2000 contracts for other reasons. If you are the person who has a "team", you can make use of both.

Happens almost every day, and often several times a day on ES. It is a obvious Bot to write. There are a lot more nuances to code, but that is the basics of what I see every day. And it is just an algorithmic version of what people did before.

Just because there are "millions" of people does not mean they are all relevant. Also just because there is a lot of complexity does not mean there are not patterns amongst the noise.

Any sailor or surfer can tell-see the difference in the chop from the swells, or the wakes from the rouge waves. It is not a mystery, it is just incredibly complex and beyond 90% of the people because they lack the knowledge and, analytic skills and, intelligence, and ability, and time to work enough to "get it". (notice all the "and" in that statement :D) That is why there are so many people offering "solutions".

Of course, this is just one persons opinion.
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THAT'S one way stops are hunted. And most any one gets paid on volume\ so plenty of motivation.
Another way stock,ETFs stops are hit, but not really hunted/like IBD founder said /you can always tell when an elephant gets into a bathtub. Same with exits out of the bathtub .
Same way when a herd of elephants gets in or out of a waterhole:caution::caution:
That also can be a good thing \i want my exits orders hit............
 
You're trading vs yourself. Big money doesn't care what retail traders do, nobody is intentionally trying to shake anyone out.... it's random noise.

There is a ton of stuff happening everyday. Look at AAPL. It gapped down to 157 on no signficant news and suddenly shoots to 164ish.

Tutes shaking out retail in the premarket to buy lower. Pure manipulation.
 
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Still didn't get the answer. Look at the prop firms and HFT, all making record profits.

some one has to be on the losing side, like michael burry. and the ballooning Fed balance sheet.
 
your beliefs and the broker[age].

mainly the belief that the trend is your friend.

the trend does not exist.

what exists is the channel....it may be so tight that it looks like a trend or it may be broader.

once you understand this contra intuitive fact which is propagated by all those idiots who call themselves experts you will make money
 
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who are we playing against as retail traders?
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The CEOs of companies want to return maximum value to their shareholders. I do not think they give a damn about who they are...Retail OR institutional. It makes no logical sense for it to be otherwise.

Find a different source for your "info" besides YouTube, lol!

True! :thumbsup:
You're trading vs yourself. Big money doesn't care what retail traders do, nobody is intentionally trying to shake anyone out.... it's random noise.
Truer! :thumbsup:
 
Its almost impossible to tell what is causing the moves, the market is made up of millions of participants, it's like the wind and you may be getting fooled by randomness, think like a casino that offers blackjack which gives a house edge around 2%, just looking at a handful of bets will appear random results, but over time it will work out in favor of the house, as a trader you've got to do the same, lot's of small trades with a edge is key. Even in random data there will be lot's of losing and winning streaks, doesn't have to have meaning behind it.
Great analogy! Totally agree! :thumbsup:
 
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