Who are the idiots buying bonds for 1% interest?

The fact that Big D keeps incessantly stating that Bone has "lost" and needs to move on from this thread, yet he consistently ignores many of Martinghoul's critiscisms (most of which echo Bone's) speaks volumes.

Something tells me even being the most profitable trader in the US wouldnt save Big D from being a miserable fuck.

Anyways, hope the interesting discussion of rates can continue in this thread. Whether or not Bone has been profitable for 18 years or not, he offers food for thought on this subject.
 
The bulls of this thread were bullish on the exact days of the current top. Bonds did not trade above that high since then--- It has been more than a month now. When will they trade at a higher level if any?

If the top is final, the bulls had a practically impossible chance to buy at the top, and they did not miss it. Talk about perfect timing in reverse :)
 
tj, you truly know not what you speak of...

Pls try to understand that trading is not just about being having a particular view/conviction. It's also about finding the way to express that view that offers the best risk/reward. The point I was trying to convey (and you didn't listen) was that a) I disagreed with the reasoning behind the trade; b) I thought it offered poor risk/reward, compared to the alternatives.

Finally, I think you're a wee bit confused by the whole futures roll thing, so let's put futures aside, as they're a little too complicated. During the month of August when we were having our discussion, median yield on 2y UST was arnd 50bps (ranging between 47bps and 56bps; using official Fed H.15 release data here http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/Business_day/H15_TCMNOM_Y2.txt). Yesterday's close was 44bps. So, had I actually gone long 2y in August, I would have made arnd 6bps just mark-to-mkt, without taking positive carry and rolldown into account. I could explain to you what's going on with the 2yr futures and why you're confused, but I know you won't listen.

I just wanted to set the record straight, 'cause you're talking nonsense yet again.
 
Quote from asiaprop:

I am, just bought the 10 years this past Friday. I give this equity rally another 2% max before we roll over....then back to equity outflows into....guess what....

where do you think bond yields will go with those CPI figures, unchanged accommodating policy, low income and consumer spending levels......
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Your timing was perfect.Bonds bounced till Thursday afternoon and kind of fell on Friday when $SPX recovered last 4 days losses in 1 go.

Are you still in the trade? Any profit target/stop?
Iam trading TLT weekly options combined with monthly.

<a href="http://content.screencast.com/users/Zeroforever/folders/Default/media/88c19d27-f918-4fc9-9901-310b04ad660c/tlt1.png"><img class="embeddedObject" src="http://content.screencast.com/users/Zeroforever/folders/Default/media/88c19d27-f918-4fc9-9901-310b04ad660c/tlt1.png" width="500" height="350" border="0" /></a>

<a href="http://content.screencast.com/users/Zeroforever/folders/Default/media/f3c1c8d9-91d2-4173-b98d-378e6f43012c/TLT21m.png"><img class="embeddedObject" src="http://content.screencast.com/users/Zeroforever/folders/Default/media/f3c1c8d9-91d2-4173-b98d-378e6f43012c/TLT21m.png" width="1273" height="723" border="0" /></a>
 
Folks: re-read the entire thread. The bulls were bullish at the precise top, despite the reminder that they might be bullish at the top.

Only two individuals got it right!
 
Quote from tradingjournals:
Folks: re-read the entire thread. The bulls were bullish at the precise top, despite the reminder that they might be bullish at the top.

Only two individuals got it right!
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Huh? It's not enough that you don't listen, it also seems like you're not familiar with basic arithmetic...
 
bush-giving-the-finger.jpg
 
We need answers to the thread's question that was posed at the bond market top of August 2010. The question was: "who are the idiots buying bonds for 1% interest". There are those who answered the question, but the market says their answers are wrong.
 
TLT now at 95. Down from the top area of around 110. When the thread started, the market was indeed at the top.

People rushed to this thread to support the past as is typical in tops, forgetting that past is just that. Some even stated something like, "bond buyers are making a killing", otherwise brought Japan in the picture, while others made other fancy explanation and strategies that got hit on the nose.

Notice the bulls in their large numbers giving opinions and insulting the bears, and claiming their expertise with the highest voice they could speak. But the mighty price has burried them.

All the words and explanation did not save them from being wrong and the worse is that they only had a microscopic chance to be wrong, and the did not miss. They were large in number to do so.

Markets follow the minority. Real experts are the minority. Re-read the thread to sift stupidity from the opposite.

One last question: if bonds were good then, why is it that we did not yet see the same people jumping in to champion a bull case for bonds, now that they are at some 20% discount?
 
Quote from bone:

2rp74vq.png


When you print a couple of good solid closes below that trendline, then by all means please declare victory. But that condition has to be satisfied before you have the legitimate standing to having called a top. You can't make broad macroeconomic directional market calls, wax eloquently about rates, (what's a few hundred basis points between friends) and then declare victory when the market comes off a few tics. The good news for you is, that will indeed happen at some point in the future.
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Any comments on your post in hindsight? What went wrong? The guy was absolutely right. Could you plot the chart containing the bars that the future revealed?
 
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