White Monday?
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
Black....White....
It is all GOOD if you are a smart trader.
HAPPY TRADES!
1flyfisher
It is all GOOD if you are a smart trader.
HAPPY TRADES!
1flyfisher
at the open. this would be great since my shorts will be offset by the longs i already have.The problem with Friday's action is that volume was light compared to October 10th; therefore we didn't see the capitulation. Interestingly, just before 9:30 AM EST on Friday, the sell orders were about 12,000.00 with no buyers in sight. At the last minute, about 11,800 sell orders were cancelled--very strange. Capitulation at the open and a move to 795 on the S&P (next limit down) would have been great for the buyers, but this didn't happen. Capitulation didn't occur on the close either. In any case, I did exit my short position on the S&P.
A little history. Back in July, 2002, the S&P made a low at 771.00 but bounced back. In October, 2002, the S&P bottomed at 767.25, which was a retest of the July low. By December, 2002, the S&P bounced to 955.25. The final retest of the October bottom occurred in March, 2003. If October 10 and October 24 (retest) is the bottom, we will get a bear trap rally, then retest the October lows. The retest must be with huge volume, though. I think that things now happen faster--we can bounce in one day or two, instead of taking two months.
A little history. Back in July, 2002, the S&P made a low at 771.00 but bounced back. In October, 2002, the S&P bottomed at 767.25, which was a retest of the July low. By December, 2002, the S&P bounced to 955.25. The final retest of the October bottom occurred in March, 2003. If October 10 and October 24 (retest) is the bottom, we will get a bear trap rally, then retest the October lows. The retest must be with huge volume, though. I think that things now happen faster--we can bounce in one day or two, instead of taking two months.
it doesnt have to re-test,it can just drop through old support at 840 on the sp500.It probably wont be a copy of the last bear market either.It can go down to 760 and just languish sideways for months.There doesnt have to be any bounce anytime soon.But it probably will go up to 1000 and then just sell off.I would think with the whole economy not emerging from this mess for the foreseeable future that your best off shorting every damn rally.Too many people are looking for bottoms.They have been doing this for the last year and have been proven wrong and slaughtered all the way down.Ask cramer.
Roulette doesn't have memory; markets do.
(Though I appreciate the grain of truth in your assessment. Keynes said "The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain liquid.") Thus, "The market's always right." Even when it's wrong.
True. A despite this continual call for a captiluation bottom (1000 point loss for the Dow, etc.), that never happened in 2002. In fact, it doesn't usually happen at major market bottoms. It's a myth for the most part.
Of coure, the current VIX readings and YTD loss % are capitulation enough. Even in the Great Depression, there were violent snapback rallies when stocks suffered declines like we've seen this year.
Of coure, the current VIX readings and YTD loss % are capitulation enough. Even in the Great Depression, there were violent snapback rallies when stocks suffered declines like we've seen this year.
Quote from asap:
back in late 2002 every reputable market technician was quite convinced the nasdaq would drop to 500 in the next few months, however the nasdaq was about to bottom right when those predictions were almost consensual among the so called "experts".