White House: Don’t Mention Temperature When Analyzing Global Warming

First rule about global warming: don’t talk global warming.

The White House quietly released a draft guidance telling federal agencies to consider the impact more carbon dioxide emissions will have on the environment, but only in terms of how much more carbon dioxide will be emitted.

When conducting environmental impact analyses on rules and projects, federal agencies should only talk about carbon dioxide emissions increases — not things like potential increases in temperature, precipitation, storm intensity and other environmental impacts that scientists warn about.

“In light of the difficulties in attributing specific climate impacts to individual projects, [Council on Environmental Quality] recommends agencies use the projected [greenhouse gas] emissions and also, when appropriate, potential changes in carbon sequestration and storage, as the proxy for assessing a proposed action’s potential climate change impacts,” the White House wrote in its guidance federal regulatory agencies conducting environmental reviews.

Why is that? Federal environmental assessments will likely show regulations have a negligible impact on the environment in terms of temperature rises, sea level rises and such — indeed if every industrialized country stopped emitting carbon dioxide tomorrow, temperatures would only be reduced 0.21 degrees Celsius by 2100.

“CEQ recognizes that many agency [National Environmental Policy Act] analyses to date have concluded that [greenhouse gas] emissions from an individual agency action will have small, if any, potential climate change effects,” the White House wrote.

Basically the White House is telling agencies not to make any predictions about how much an individual project or program will impact the environment through global warming because there’s too much uncertainty.

“In other words, it would prove that the assessment of climate change impacts of federal actions, as directed by the CEQ, to be a complete and utter waste of time,” writes Patrick Michaels and Chip Knappenberger, climate scientists with the libertarian Cato Institute.

The Cato scientists argue the White House’s order to agencies not to consider the actual environmental impacts of global warming allows the government to hide how little its actions will actually impact the climate.

Michaels and Knappenberger say climate models, which the federal government has spent billions of dollars developing, can be used to quantify the environmental impacts from higher carbon dioxide emissions.

But what the Obama administration doesn’t want you to see is just how small an impact individual federal actions will have on temperature increases, sea level rises, precipitation and other factors.

“So instead of assessing actual climate impacts (of which there are none) of federal actions, the CEQ directs agencies to cast the effect in terms of greenhouse gas emissions—which can be used for all sorts of mischief,” write Michaels and Knappenberger. “For example, see how the EPA uses greenhouse gas emissions instead of climate change to promote its regulations limiting carbon dioxide emissions from power plants.”

The EPA says its rule to cut carbon dioxide emissions from power plants 30 percent by 2030 will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by as much as 555 million metric tons per year in 15 years — sounds like a lot, but it will have a negligible impact on global temperatures.

Even if the EPA got rid of carbon dioxide from all power plants currently operating, global temperature rises by 0.03 degrees Celsius by 2100.

“Government action occurs incrementally, program-by-program and step-by-step, and climate impacts are not attributable to any single action, but are exacerbated by a series of smaller decisions, including decisions made by the government,” the White House wrote.

“Therefore, the statement that emissions from a government action or approval represent only a small fraction of global emissions is more a statement about the nature of the climate change challenge, and is not an appropriate basis for deciding whether to consider climate impacts under [the National Environmental Policy Act],” the White House added.
 
Interesting. But here is a tip for the future. When you are quoting verbatim, don't forget to give us the source!

I have said, based on CO2's absorption spectrum, concentration and shielding affect in the outer atmosphere, that if it has any net greenhouse effect, it must be a very weak one. Water is more important in its greenhouse gas function, and vastly more important as a moderator of Earth's surface temperature through other heating and cooling mechanisms. So I am not surprised that anyone would be cautioned to avoid predictions of how the climate might be affected by future increases in CO2. That only makes sense if you don't want to be proved a fool.

Those few who bother to read my posts know that I have steadfastly maintained that while I believe an argument can be made for cutting back on CO2 emissions, climate change is not one of them. It will be a waste of time and money to cut CO2 for that reason. Hanson's hypothesis that the thermal effect of small increases in CO2 would be amplified by positive feedback to produce runaway temperature excursion was disproved some time back and is no longer accepted as plausible by anyone, except perhaps the unquenchable and exasperating James Hansen himself. Without Hansen's positive feedback, we won't see any direct effect of moderate cutbacks in emissions when temperature is measured against a background of natural climate variation.So what is the point? If you want to be one of those who justifies wrong pursuits because they can lead to worthwhile, and useful fallout, as in technological advances driven by war; or new materials developed in the course of trying to land man on mars, I won't buy it. I'll simply point out that if you had the useful fallout from these wrong pursuits as your original goal, you'd have got there faster and at far less waste and cost.

So the White house caution against predictions, if it is true, is both wise and absurd at the same time. Wise because any prediction has a better chance of being wrong than right -- if right it is purely fortuitous -- and absurd because the Whitehouse is taking an official position that we must cut back CO2 emissions, at great expense, because of harmful warming that will result if we don't. The current politically correct term for "harmful warming", is I believe "climate change".

This statement below reportedly uttered by Michaels and Knappenberger is ridiculous:

"Michaels and Knappenberger say climate models, which the federal government has spent billions of dollars developing, can be used to quantify the environmental impacts from higher carbon dioxide emissions."

Everyone knows, especially those whose business it is to model climate change, that there is, as yet, no climate model that has been shown to correctly predict future temperature, let alone climate! While not a single model has been shown to be correct, some have, however, been shown to be wildly incorrect!!! :D

I stand by and repeat my earlier remark that this "global warming" business started by James Hansen in the late 1970s, and fed by his out of control ego, will go down as one of mankind's greatest fiascoes, eclipsing in wasted time and money Eugenics, the Lysenko Affair, Polywater and dozens of other wild goose chases! At least, however, some greater understanding of the Earth's climate is likely to come out of this otherwise sad episode. But as I have already pointed out, a wrong pursuit can not be justified by chance, inadvertent good it may produce.
 
Well stated pie.

Bush should have shut Hansen down years ago but typical republican timidity let Hansen continue to exploit the credibility of NASA. Of course there is also the Goldman Sachs angle. Wall street saw big profits in carbon trading and liked the hysteria Hansen was promoting.
 
But the higher CO2 levels have caused a 1 1/2 degree rise in temps and is poised do much more as levels rise.

As per this chart....

global_warming_temperature_trends_projections.jpg
 
But the higher CO2 levels have caused a 1 1/2 degree rise in temps and is poised do much more as levels rise.

As per this chart....

global_warming_temperature_trends_projections.jpg

The projections have already proven to be completely faulty and all the IPCC models have failed. Why don't we simply chart the uncorrected raw temperature data.
 
Piehole seems to forget that CO2 is the most important GHG on earth and is responsible for setting the temp levels. Solar is actually just an initiating force. CO2 is responsible for around 80% of the greenhouse effect. Without which the earth would be much much colder.


Radiative modeling analyses of the terrestrial greenhouse structure described in a parallel study in theJournal of Geophysical Research(Schmidt et al., 2010) found that water vapor accounts for about 50% of the Earth's greenhouse effect, with clouds contributing 25%, carbon dioxide 20%, and the minor greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols accounting for the remaining 5%, as shown in Fig. 1. Thus, while the non-condensing greenhouse gases account for only 25% of the total greenhouse effect, it is these non-condensing GHGs that actually control the strength of the terrestrial greenhouse effect since the water vapor and cloud feedback contributions are not self-sustaining and as such, only provide amplification. Because carbon dioxide accounts for 80% of the non-condensing GHG forcing in the current climate atmosphere, atmospheric carbon dioxide therefore qualifies as the principal control knob that governs the temperature of Earth.

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/lacis_01/
 
But the higher CO2 levels have caused a 1 1/2 degree rise in temps and is poised do much more as levels rise.

As per this chart....

global_warming_temperature_trends_projections.jpg
Thank you, FC, for posting the above chart and not that ridiculous 3-D chart you used to post ad nauseum, where each parameter was plotted on a different y-axes scale. I'm serious, thank you! This chart is far more reasonable because it clear that concern about future temperature is based on model projections and the ranges of the various projections are shown.
 
Thank you, FC, for posting the above chart and not that ridiculous 3-D chart you used to post ad nauseum, where each parameter was plotted on a different y-axes scale. I'm serious, thank you! This chart is far more reasonable because it clear that concern about future temperature is based on model projections and the ranges of the various projections are shown.

Frankly I wish that 3-D chart was not so fancy. It does not need to be 3-D.

Well then maybe you will also like this one....note how CO2 rise precedes temp. That's because CO2 is an important GHG.


Global_temp_millennium.jpg
 
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