I wan't actually thinking of news when I wrote that.
Share price can be doing one thing but dumb money think its doing something else.
Being fooled by randomness is another instance.
Whispers Of An Emergency Fed Rate Hike As Soon As Tomorrow
- Thread starter Bugsy
- Start date
Share price can be doing one thing but dumb money think its doing something else.
Being fooled by randomness is another instance.
Yeah, because I'm currently trading and trying to speed type by mobile here.
No one knows why the market did what it did, how are two pros still arguing about that.
Traders all read the same news source(s). But the question on how we digest the news and come up with our own ideas. This may be the "edge".
The most important thing in trading/investing is to have our own ideas. Before, trend following was the "trend". But that has lost its edge. We do not want to follow the trends or trade ideas from Reddit etc. A lot of those are frauds.
In a chopping market, trend following will likely fail. Look at the volatility over the past a couple of days. Some of the stock/ETF intra-day moves are > 10%. Certainly some people were on the wrong side. If someone bought SOXL at $52 and had to close the day trade at $46, it is a 15% day trade loss.
That is why news is useless for practical purposes when you trade. The StockCharts reveal more about the intent of market participants by the price action and candlestick formations. Inspite of that, they pay the likes of Sara Eisen $700,000 per year on CNBC? Oh, she is a pretty face but, cannot handle hard questions? I asked her one time on Twitter based on what she said about the US economy. Asked her 2 questions, she never responded to my questions?
As to today's stock market, stock market got it totally wrong.
After the early drop at open, it was another "buy the dip" day. ES recovered all the early loss. But look at the bond market. It dropped like a rock from the CPI news. But stock traders ignored all of that. That was clearly wrong.
Bond market did not respond much to Bollard's comment since bond traders got it already priced into the market. But stock market started to pay attention. So stock traders were dumb and slow to respond. All wanted to buy QQQ, SPY, TQQQ or SPXL on dips. It is stock traders' greed that did not smell the danger.
After the early drop at open, it was another "buy the dip" day. ES recovered all the early loss. But look at the bond market. It dropped like a rock from the CPI news. But stock traders ignored all of that. That was clearly wrong.
Bond market did not respond much to Bollard's comment since bond traders got it already priced into the market. But stock market started to pay attention. So stock traders were dumb and slow to respond. All wanted to buy QQQ, SPY, TQQQ or SPXL on dips. It is stock traders' greed that did not smell the danger.
Todd Gordon says you can’t trade worth jack.
You are just a worthless ET troll. Go back in your hole.
Bullard has always been a bit of a hawk. The part that made news IMO was him saying 100bp by July and yet there are only THREE meetings in that span. Lots of folks felt like it was going to be .25 every meeting. Suddenly we had a math problem if his comment holds true. Either one of the meetings has to be .50 OR we get an inter-meeting move. It makes a good amount of sense that an inter meeting move may be prior to March as these things take a while to have the intended effect.
Lots of institutions have pricing models with assumptions built in. When you code in another possible interest rate hike that wasn't there, the model changes and gives you different asset allocations. The move yesterday was likely some asset shifting given that ONE Fed Governor is now publicly pushing for 100bp by July.
Lots of institutions have pricing models with assumptions built in. When you code in another possible interest rate hike that wasn't there, the model changes and gives you different asset allocations. The move yesterday was likely some asset shifting given that ONE Fed Governor is now publicly pushing for 100bp by July.