Uranium’s resurgence from 10 years of obscurity
Alex Gluyas Markets Reporter Sep 10, 2021
https://www.afr.com/markets/commodi...ce-from-10-years-of-obscurity-20210909-p58q44
Ten years ago, an earth-shattering magnitude nine earthquake sent a 15-metre tsunami crashing through the sea wall of the
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, disabling the power supply and cooling of three reactors, and triggering a nuclear meltdown.
The chemical explosions that ensued sent radioactive material leaking into the atmosphere and Pacific Ocean, creating what is known as the second-worst nuclear calamity in history, behind the Chernobyl disaster 25 years earlier.
Fukushima’s nuclear reactors were fuelled by uranium, which consequently suffered a demand shock and prolonged downturn as mines shut or entered care and maintenance. The spot price traded in a depressed range of $US20 to $US30 a pound – not nearly high enough to encourage production.
But after a decade in the shadows, the sector has been jolted back to life within just a few weeks thanks largely to the
Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT). The vehicle is in the midst of a buying frenzy of physical uranium, taking supply out of the market and boosting the spot price to $US40.40 a pound – its highest level in seven years.
“There’s been so much fuel on the floor of the uranium market given it’s been such an undersupplied commodity,” the portfolio manager of Tribeca’s global natural resources fund, Ben Cleary, said. “The match to set this on fire has been Sprott buying spot [uranium].”
The world’s largest energy consumer expects to reach 200 gigawatts by 2035, with six to eight new plants being approved every year from 2021 to 2025.
“This year has been a watershed year for uranium as a baseload power for the green economy and a decarbonising world,” Mr Cleary said.
Earlier this week, Taro Kono, who is a candidate to become the next prime minister of Japan, said restarting nuclear power plants was needed for the country to reach its net zero goals.
Local players
The surge in uranium’s spot price has sparked widespread upgrades for miners of the commodity that have already rallied this year.
In a sector report this week, Shaw&Partners upgraded its long-term price forecast from $US52 to $US60 a pound. It assumes a multi-year price spike at $US85 a pound.