Which way? A Gold Timing exercise

[themickey]

Sticking to original prognosis, just a little more to fall from here then upward, ~1920 was my floor.

Gold decided not to fall further but instead to go sideways, so my 1920 level not hit.
Overnight USA Gold price was tepid but today in Australia gold had a very strong day.

It appears gold will likely swing up from here, in this instance (and it does happen frequently) Australia leads USA.

 

[themickey]

Uh oh, gold and silver failure with collapse. Didn't expect that.

Silver cash

 

[PPC]

@themickey Gold is quoted in US dollars, therefore it might help you to keep an eye on US dollar index “DXY” which was suggesting temporary weakness in Gold (depending on your timeframe)

To make things easier, just invert DXY chart, and then you can often see where DXY it likely to stall, pullback or reverse. These price behaviours are then usually reflected in the Gold prices, and it should help you improve your accuracy.

I’m attaching few charts that you can study

PS: Obviously it’s much easier for me to describe things after the fact.

 

[themickey]

DXY only has partial influence. You've got to be careful of selective bias.
Lots of different factors pull gold about.
Gold is speculative, it operates slightly differently to other commodities on a T/A basis.
Gold is like fx, it breaks many T/A rules, it's not easy to grasp what it will do next.
Apparently the gold derivative market is huge and manipulated, well beyond my scope of intelligence.
God only knows why gold is such a popular commodity, good for nothing most of the time, too expensive for most industrial purposes, even as a conductor silver does a pretty good job at much less the cost.
The volatilty of gold makes for tricky trading and I avoid it these days, but I still try to suss out where I think it's going.
Buy yeah, DXY only works sometimes, like lots of things.

 

[themickey]

Ok all you Gold Bugs, which way is gold heading?
I'll explain here a theory.

When I trade, I trade gold stocks, and these gold stocks are mostly junior gold miners. So in otherwords, I'm not trading the price of gold ingots, but gold shovels.

The above is gold in USD, the trend is looking more or less to be rising, if it continues at this pace, price will break through resistance toward the end of October.
My experience, it will hit, then stall, then maybe retrace for another go.

On the other hand we have a chart of junior gold miners above.
If the trend continues upward, it will be the 2nd half of 2025 before it breaks through resistance.
Which way is current trend direction? Who knows, it could be up or down.

Then we have the gold miner seniors above.
If upward trend continues price should break through Sept 2024.
Similar to the juniors the trend direction could be subjective, is it up or down?

Conclussion: The price of currency gold and price of gold mining companies are two different scenarios.

 

[themickey]

If we compare charts, gold price USD black, seniors red, juniors blue.

It seems obvious to me, trading gold stocks should best be short term, not buy and hold.
Looking at gold price chart while trading the miners is deceptive.

 

[Cabin111]

View attachment 319874
If we compare charts, gold price USD black, seniors red, juniors blue.

It seems obvious to me, trading gold stocks should best be short term, not buy and hold.
Looking at gold price chart while trading the miners is deceptive.

I do as long as I can covered calls on RING and GDXJ. Very high prices, not wishing to be called away...Small income, but still try to hold for future inflation protection.

 

[themickey]

Be wary of gold, it has a reputation of playing dirty tricks, a bullish scenario is not in the bag yet.

 

[Ed48]

I've given up trying to fathom Gold. On the basis that it seems to go through 20-year bear/10-year bull cycles, we might get a new bull market before the end of the decade, especially if inflation proves to be sticky. But I could be dead by then.

 

[themickey]

I've given up trying to fathom Gold. On the basis that it seems to go through 20-year bear/10-year bull cycles, we might get a new bull market before the end of the decade, especially if inflation proves to be sticky. But I could be dead by then.

Gold is tricky but there are ways.
A) what the gold index does and what gold stocks do can be 2 different things.
B) the junior index GDXJ is more reliable than GDX.
C) most of the moves happen quickly then burn out, many dummy moves.
D) the metals indexes on a whole underperform. They have short term bursts then do nothing for the rest of the time.
E) I've stopped trading gold, there are better sectors elsewhere.