Which way? A Gold Timing exercise

[deaddog]

Gold at 1830 is getting interesting again. Stocks haven't really moved much yet waiting for some further momentum I guess. This is kind of the tipping point any higher the stocks will rally some; Copper same deal top of range.

Which stocks are you following? The big boys or the juniors?

 

[themickey]

Stocks haven't really moved much yet waiting for some further momentum I guess

Lacking in interest other than media talking heads forever crowing on about it.

 

[themickey]

At this point in time I have zero optimism.
Zero, nil, nix, 0, POS gold.
The stock market in general today the most bearish I've seen for quite some time.

 

[themickey]

 

[themickey]

Down day occured today as guessed, nearly 100% of gold and silver stocks were in red.
Tomorrow expecting an insipid bounce, likely a narrow range day.
Expecting Nasdaq up day tomorrow.

 

[themickey]

Looking at gold price action, a rocky road it travels on, very difficult to know its mind but foolishly will make the call there is still short term weakness dead ahead.

 

[themickey]

Trend lines I rarely use, it's not my method of trading but I do use support and resistance levels in a rough manner, using the term 'rough' because generally speaking S/R will be penetrated briefly or fall short of as it's the markets way of fooling the crowd, taking out stops.

With gold due to the high level of emotion/cultism and because it's basically a speculative commoditity, once momentum gets going then we see parabolic moves, not straight trend lines.

 

[themickey]

Log chart which is the correct method to present a long tem chart.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Trend lines I rarely use, it's not my method of trading but I do use support and resistance levels in a rough manner, using the term 'rough' because generally speaking S/R will be penetrated briefly or fall short of as it's the markets way of fooling the crowd, taking out stops.

With gold due to the high level of emotion/cultism and because it's basically a speculative commoditity, once momentum gets going then we see parabolic moves, not straight trend lines.
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Technicals on commodities rarely matter imo but I see a ton of traders and analysts who think they matter. The trade really is the miners because we are still in a situation where miners are far cheaper them they should be for where Gold is at. 1800 is close to old ATHs and some of the stocks are 20-40% of where they were at the old ATHs.

Now there are reasons for this problem I'm sure. Sentiment is one. Bitcoin talk is another. A last factor that I'm realizing now is perhaps mines are impacted more then other businesses due to Covid. The reason I say this is earnings in 2021 while not horrible underperformed the kind of growth that late 2020 suggested, Beyond just Gold not being $2000+. $1800 is still a rather healthy level but the earnings numbers are kind of mundane.

So I think the only good plays are jump in if Gold makes a big move, or play the range when miners get crushed on news but are still profitable.

 

[themickey]

Technicals on commodities rarely matter imo but I see a ton of traders and analysts who think they matter. The trade really is the miners because we are still in a situation where miners are far cheaper them they should be for where Gold is at. 1800 is close to old ATHs and some of the stocks are 20-40% of where they were at the old ATHs.

Now there are reasons for this problem I'm sure. Sentiment is one. Bitcoin talk is another. A last factor that I'm realizing now is perhaps mines are impacted more then other businesses due to Covid. The reason I say this is earnings in 2021 while not horrible underperformed the kind of growth that late 2020 suggested, Beyond just Gold not being $2000+. $1800 is still a rather healthy level but the earnings numbers are kind of mundane.

So I think the only good plays are jump in if Gold makes a big move, or play the range when miners get crushed on news but are still profitable.

The way I'm playing gold is only via gold mining stocks and two types; I have a small handful of very profitable gold producers and a couple of handfuls of penny stocks which have made large discoveries but not producing plus 1 silver ETF. Every one is currently underwater.
I was hoping silver would finally uncorrelate to gold due to heavier demand as we go into a battery material/Solarpanel era, but I was dreaming in lala land.