Which way? A Gold Timing exercise

Silver has more industrial influences on price. Imo, silver is way undervalued atm, silver/gold ratio near historic levels and have been for many years. If we start to see gold and silver moving, inflationary pressures, silver should pop. fwiw.

You are correct in that currency strengths jade our true perception of gold/silver’s actual cost. Dollar’s strong atm across the board. Put the Dollar at it’s swap levels say 10+ years ago and your $2500 gold.
 
Last edited:
Wallet said:
Silver has more industrial influences on price. Imo, silver is way undervalued atm, silver/gold ratio near historic levels and have been for many years. If we start to see gold and silver moving, inflationary pressures, silver should pop. fwiw.
You are correct in that currency strengths jade our true perception of gold/silver’s actual cost. Dollar’s strong atm across the board. Put the Dollar at it’s swap levels say 10+ years ago and your $2500 gold.
More...
upload_2021-11-5_14-15-47.png

Comparing Gold with silver since 1969 - that's as far back as I can go - gold has outperformed silver, 4,400% versus 972%, that's a wide difference.
There have been a couple of occasions where silver caught up, in 1980 & 2011, that's when gold was most bullish and where silver put on its acceleration. Note, when gold is bearish, silver plunges faster.

Personally, I may be slightly bullish gold but I doubt it will outperform for example Nasdaq going into the future.
Will silver outperform if gold doesn't?
Buggered if I know, my only observation, gold and silver are manipulated to hell imo and although silver may be in hot demand in electronics and solar panels, somehow and I don't know how, the powers to be will make life difficult for silver bugs.
In the meantime lets leave everyone in peace chasing rainbows and unicorns. :) (dreaming about gold and silver going to Mars and beyond)
 
Today Friday was certainly a better day, but imo still not a fully convincing day.
Pros:
The ASX had a good daily move on gold, rising 3.62%, volumes though were not spectacular.
GC up 1.48%, closed at daily high, closed above October high.
Silver up 1.55%, closed at daily high.
Both gold and silver rose steadily throughout the day.
The majority of gold and silver stocks are above MA50.
We are into November which historically becomes bullish.

Cons:
Stocks volumes not indicating a breakout style, Silver only matched gold in % move.
Silver not closed above October high.
The majority of gold and silver stocks are still below MA200.

Gold has a reputation lately of moving strongly, then plunging, I think many are a bit wary of being trapped by a dummy move.

Conclusion: Friday was looking good in terms of the intraday upmoves but volumes not strong and silver not jumping.
 
upload_2021-11-6_6-1-9.png

HUI Gold Index
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index is a modified equal dollar weighted index of companies involved in gold mining. BUGS stands for Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks. It is also referred to by its ticker symbol "HUI". The HUI Index and Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) are the two most watched gold indices on the market. The main difference between them is that the HUI Index takes into account only gold producer stocks whereas the XAU Index includes both gold and silver producers.[1] The Gold BUGS Index was designed to provide significant exposure to near term movements in gold prices by including companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years. The HUI Index was developed with a base value of 200.00 as of March 15, 1996. The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index currently consists of 15 of the largest and most widely held public gold production companies
 
Volume. There's been much debate on ET about volume and in effect there being two camps, some who swear by it, others who swear at it.
Some on ET prefer to totally ignore volume as they claim its deceptive and can throw them out.

As this thread is about gold timing, what does volume analysis have to do about it?
Well as I've mentioned volume in the post above, I thought it might be an idea on how I'm using it.

By and large I think volume is not helpful as a stock swing trader (that's how I trade gold) by looking at volume too intently. I think price action supplies more information than volume, also volume is a lot more deceptive.

But what I particularly look for are volume spikes, though even spikes are deceptive.
A spike may consist of 1 trade only by an institution which may be meaningless.
So it pays to drill down intraday to see what that spike consists of.

A volume spike from many traders can give a heads up in a trend change, often it does.

However, a trend change can be instigated on low volume as well as high volume.
Hmmmmm, ok you say, we're getting nowhere.

Well actually there is some logic imo.
A genuine volume spike (numerous trades) usually indicates players who have been sitting crouching for an attack or are suddenly becoming very interested.

A trend change (seen in hinsight) on low or just average volume indicates to me the trend move is more of a random affair, ie it happens because it coincidently happens.

Because gold has been languishing a while and falling a reasonable amount, I'm expecting many players are sitting crouching for an opportunity to get in as low as possible, shorts may cover.

Volume is not everything I'm watching, neither is gold price, there are several tricks up my sleeve which I'll use to gauge probability.
Gold is nasty piece of work to trade, more difficult imo to other commodities or sectors.
 
Last edited:
Monday 8th Nov, ASX gold index up 2.51%, usually leads USA, but I stick to my original hunch, the current gold rally does not have legs and will fail shortly - suckers rally, how's that for sticking my neck out and calling direction against what looks on the surface to be a highly likely breakout.
Just a calculated opinion, don't bank your bank (or a penny) on it as I aint a pro advisor. :)
 
Apart from Central Banks, who are the investment buyers of PMs these days?

Joe public only seems interested in cryptos and stocks.

Are PMs dead as an investment? Superseded and rendered obsolete by Bitcoin?
 
Last edited:
themickey said:
Monday 8th Nov, ASX gold index up 2.51%, usually leads USA, but I stick to my original hunch, the current gold rally does not have legs and will fail shortly - suckers rally, how's that for sticking my neck out and calling direction against what looks on the surface to be a highly likely breakout.
Just a calculated opinion, don't bank your bank (or a penny) on it as I aint a pro advisor. :)
More...
(Above post was made after ASX closed and prior to USA opening.)

US RTH mkt now closed Monday, what were the results? (for me it's overnight as where I am it's 5:50 am Tuesday morning).
Gold cash rose ~0.38%.
Silver cash rose ~1.3%.

There is a definite but shaky correlation between Gold price and the Metals index.
I'm heavily exposed to metals stocks as well as gold and silver stocks, I'm just bullish that inflation will have a positive effect on metals, plus the fact I'm drawn to a mental bias living in a region which is predominantly gold and metals mining, being close to the action I feel the pulse. However with gold, there is a perpetual ongoing hype of the commodity which one needs guard against (a bit like crypto and other types of cults :) ).

upload_2021-11-9_5-5-24.png

Here is a % comparison of Base Metals Index (black) versus Gold (blue), 10 years.

Monday was a good day for metals stocks, gold, silver, aluminium, copper, iron ore, diversified mining, nickel, lithium and uranium in particular strong.
Cobalt and Tin I don't follow because it's difficult to find these stocks which are not diversifed and other stuff like vanadium etc.

upload_2021-11-9_5-45-29.png

Gold cash up 0.38%, getting close to 1830 resistance.
I'm expecting a pullback shortly, but would not be surprised if I'm wrong because such is the nature of gold, it's a slippery tricky dirty dick. :)
I hope I am wrong and it jumps because I physically win $$, just lose my reputation. :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top