Which stocks would you hold for 30 years?

[Handsome]

Quote from max401:

Oh, you did? Well... let's do a veracity check. Where, exactly, did you state this?

Look back about 9 posts Maxi...
DUH!!!!!

(Don't you even read the replies that have been posted by members in a topic BEFORE you make a reply?)

 

[max401]

Quote from Handsome:

Look back about 9 posts Maxi...
DUH!!!!!

(Don't you even read the replies that have been posted by members in a topic BEFORE you make a reply?)

OK, I now get which of the two possible meanings you meant. My bad. But who would have thought you were that dumb?

 

[Hooked2000]

I personally would hold any stock for 30 years. As a trader my mindset just will not allow for it.

If I was looking to hold for huge upside, it would have to be in small to midcaps.

 

[Slugabed]

Quote from eagle488:

I have the Mergent's Dividend Achievers list that I am working off of.

Save yourself work and just buy PFM, PEY or PHJ

 

[aresky]

Quote from runningman:

How about
PG
BDK
NSRGY (Nestle)
DEO
K

consumer products companies tend to do well over very long periods. People will always shave/drink alcohol/eat chocolate etc. even as various technologies change over time.
Look at TR (Tootsie Roll) over the last 20 years. Boring a heck, but a huge earner.

Monday, April 20, 2009, 9:40am EDT
P&G upgraded

An analyst following Procter & Gamble Co. upgraded the consumer products maker and said he expects its stock price will climb more than 25 percent.

Analyst William Chappell at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey upgraded his rating on P&G shares to “buy” from “neutral.” He said expected cost cuts in fiscal 2010 should benefit the Cincinnati maker of Tide and Pampers, according to an Associated Press story.


Chappell set a target stock price of $65, indicating a 26 percent rise in the next 12 months. But he also lowered his earnings-per-share outlook for fiscal 2009 by 9 cents, to $4.21, and for fiscal 2010 by 32 cents, to $3.85. He said that for the stock to climb, the estimates need to be reduced.

P&G has been maneuvering its costs structure and operations to offset a decline in consumer spending. An increasing number of shoppers, across the globe, have been trading down to private label products to reduce their bills.

But lower fuel and commodities costs should benefit P&G, Chappell said. He also cited an easier year-over-year exchange rate and volume comparisons in the fiscal second quarter.

“In our opinion, the stock now represents an attractive entry point for patient investors,” Chappell said in the AP report. “Looking into fiscal 2010 we expect business trends to stabilize and for the stock to trade at more normal levels.”


http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/stories/2009/04/20/daily2.html?ana=from_rss

 

[Illum]

0

At the end of the day it's only paper.

 

[Cutten]

IMO no stock, (excluding market/index ETFs) should be held for 30 years. You must always have an exit plan in case the investment case goes sour.

Very few businesses and stocks are so good each year that they are always a buy/hold. Either the business prospects turn south in a major way, or the stock becomes a market darling and reaches massive overvaluation due to excess speculation - in both cases it's a clear sell.

 

[Cutten]

Quote from brownsfan019:

Interesting post Eagle.

I don't trade stocks and this would be considered a 'long-term investment' - but with that being said my 5 would be (in no particular order):

Best Buy
Electronic Arts
Google
CME
Bank of America

That was actually kind of fun. I was a financial advisor years ago and that question took me back to that time - what stocks would you plan to own for years. Now, daytrading futures I think - will this trade last 45 seconds or 5 minutes?

I thought this would be an interesting exercise to compare the price of these stocks at this post time, and look at where they are now. This could give good insight into the merits of buy & hold, and give an idea how uncertainty affects investment planning.

BBY - from 55.5 then to 38.6 today (-30%)
ERTS - 59 to 17.7 (-70%)
GOOG - 594 to 380 (-36%)
CME - 629 to 223 (-65%)
BAC - 52.7 to 8.1 (-85%)

Return (dividends excluded) = -57%

Not trying to pick on this poster at all, but I wonder how many people back in October 06 thought that this portfolio could fall by 57% (actually the max drawdown was even bigger if we measured to the lows 6 weeks ago).

 

[short&naked]

Quote from eagle488:

Lets assume that you had to choose stocks to buy in the next two years. Once you purchase the stocks, then the stock certificates would be put in a safe deposit box. The safe deposit box would then be opened in 30 years and the securities sold.

You will have up to two years from today to buy the stocks. The reason why you have two years is so you can pick a suitable entry point. For example, P&G seems a little bit overbought at the current time. So you will be able to wait a few months to buy it.

Which 5 stocks would you pick based upon the above scenario?

You might as well put your money into an index or ETF, which has less chance of a default than individual stocks:

I can't even start to list the things that can go wrong when investing in individual stocks (aside from the fact that all companies go bankrupt over time). Why do you think that the SP500 keeps rotating stocks? Take advantage of this!

If however, you plan to go forward, I can tell you that the benefits to lessing the default risk are minuscule after around 20 stocks.

 

[eagle]

The DOW itself is sounding if entries/exits are made on the right time. But the problem is how to spot its flood tide and ebb tide early. It would have 3-4 major cycles during 30 years timeframe.