The thing I remember most about that period especially after the Lehman buyout was the weekly Monday Stock Market Crash threads. And after the QE implementation the refrain of "10 handles down is the new bear market" -- a reference to the PPT buying ES whenever the markets went down a little.
Which one of you guys were around for the 2008 crash?
- Thread starter SoyUnGanador
- Start date
Perhaps "this time it is different"?
I invested through the 2008 crash, and the 2000 crash. Oh yes. and the 1987 crash and the 1978 crash. I started in 1971, just in time to catch the 1973 crash. There were few mini-crashes and flash-crashes along the way too.
1973 was the big one. The others were just a walk in the park.
All of the booms leading up to these crashes were driven by different factors, but the greed/fear that drives the extremes is always the same. Each generation thinks they have discovered the secret of making money. Each boom has some new consensus thinking . . . that eventually proves wrong but you look like an idiot if you speak against it at the time (think "the Emperor's New Clothes". I'm pretty sure that folktale is really about investment booms!).
What have I learnt from 50 years of "making mistakes in the market"? I really don't know except:
1. NOTHING the market does should ever surprise you! (If something is unthinkable, it will probably happen next week - or next year!).
2. What is there to be afraid of? Nothing. Make a decision. Back your judgement. (If too many others agree with you, then you are probably wrong!) What is the worst that can happen? Your (unleveraged) portfolio might drop 25% or 50% or 75% in value. So what? Its not nuclear war. It not like losing a child or being told you have terminal cancer. And my portfolio is up 1000-fold over 50 years, so whatever happens I will still be way ahead! Each crash just created opportunities to make money before the next one.
I invested through the 2008 crash, and the 2000 crash. Oh yes. and the 1987 crash and the 1978 crash. I started in 1971, just in time to catch the 1973 crash. There were few mini-crashes and flash-crashes along the way too.
1973 was the big one. The others were just a walk in the park.
All of the booms leading up to these crashes were driven by different factors, but the greed/fear that drives the extremes is always the same. Each generation thinks they have discovered the secret of making money. Each boom has some new consensus thinking . . . that eventually proves wrong but you look like an idiot if you speak against it at the time (think "the Emperor's New Clothes". I'm pretty sure that folktale is really about investment booms!).
What have I learnt from 50 years of "making mistakes in the market"? I really don't know except:
1. NOTHING the market does should ever surprise you! (If something is unthinkable, it will probably happen next week - or next year!).
2. What is there to be afraid of? Nothing. Make a decision. Back your judgement. (If too many others agree with you, then you are probably wrong!) What is the worst that can happen? Your (unleveraged) portfolio might drop 25% or 50% or 75% in value. So what? Its not nuclear war. It not like losing a child or being told you have terminal cancer. And my portfolio is up 1000-fold over 50 years, so whatever happens I will still be way ahead! Each crash just created opportunities to make money before the next one.
Let it all burn in inflation. You can't just reboot the matrix.
I recognized we were in a new bull market fairly early and posted on here I believe in 2010 that most bull markets last at a minimum 4-5 years. That theme wasn't well received on here. I was quite comfortable holding 100% of my money in NA index funds passively for 5 years on that premise. Somewhere around the 6th-8th year I failed to capture any upside in the market because I went to cash for around a year. That was a bigger "mistake" then any time I have spent long in any correction since 2009 including March 2020. However, mistakes that simply are opportunity costs aren't really painful at all long term.
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The thing though is that during this time, we dropped rates to nothing and did QE. Now, rates are much higher, and they are doing QT. You said in the other thread that you think the market has already priced all this in. But I hardly see how this could be so when it isn't really that much lower. Plus, with rates staying where they are, its not going to be the same economy, nor will the consumer be able to keep the economy going.
I therefore think that the only thing the market has priced in is a dovish Fed and more printing in the future.
I spoke to her a few times over Skype and can attest that she was a "SHE".
If it happens again, I'd go on vacation for a week.