Which one leads, index or future?

What we want to see is two markets and what is leading what.

It is very logical to want to see the rich smart guys making their moves all the time. Once you track this, you are in a very good place to see money piling up in your account.

We know the cash market is a continually adjusted weighted average of a group of stocks that tipify how the market and eonomy are going along.

The commodities futures index is a device used by producers and commercials to assure that they can plan and have business operating profits.

Because this stuff is dynamic others of us, called speculators, can continually gleen profitsout of this vast set of enterprises operating for other worldly purposes.

Some of us a called smart money. Others are called angry losers.


Do the stuff below on Tuesday am.

On qcharts make a graph of INDU using bar chart indications.

We are going to add ym04h to this chart. It will be a one period MA of price. To do this go to studies and bring down the menu. Select Overlay Expressions and activate it by clicking on Add...

Fill in the symbol for ym04H by typing YM04H. Go to the vertical scale method. Select Match Vertical Ranges.

When the markets are running you will have the two graphs set up with the same vertical magnitudes. This throws out the offset of the two and makes the neutral value (like in the attachment below it is about 19 to 21).

What you see are bars for the INDU and a line threading along that is a 1 period MA of YM04H.

For making money, you want to trade with the smart money. You must do trades to acheive this. You can see that the dashed line is on one side fo the cash INDU most of the time. The side it is on is the trend to be following.

As I mentor, the person says: "it crossed from long to short (or vice versa.)" Then he judged whether or not the new trend is going to stick. You can see from the attachment that that part is easy. I marked about 25 easy trade signals. At each time, you mosey over to IB and enter a trade as indicated. If you screw it up do a wash trade for pratice.

For trend fader, do not attempt any of this stuff. You are too angry to think clearly.
 

Attachments

Quote from pspr:

Sorry, Grub. Nitro is correct. Often you will see the cash start to move (up for instance) and the premium contract as the futures participants don't believe it is the actual start of a move. As soon as they realize there is more money coming in, the futures will catch up and the premium will expand. The opposite is the norm but it does happen this way fairly often (yeah, I would say 5% or 10% of the time).

The normal way is when big stock buyers buy the futures first then start buying the equities they intend to acquire. When they are through (and the market probably moved up on their stock buying) they close their long futures hedge. That operation is one reason the futures usually move first.

Then there are the program trades which can kick in and spike the market when the premium gets too high or too low. Sometimes the program spike marks the end of the move, other times it doesn't.

I agree with nitro.

I styped stall (meaning the 15% will not persist.)

The 15% is a very visible thing (you can see it like a sore thumb) that goes away.
 
Sorry, I misunderstood with the typo.

Quote from Grob109:

I agree with nitro.

I styped stall (meaning the 15% will not persist.)

The 15% is a very visible thing (you can see it like a sore thumb) that goes away.
 
Ive been hanging around this forum for quite awhile. It is a great place to study human nature. 95% of what is posted here is garb age but thats ok. Garbage needs love too. When really interesting stuff comes along I get paranoid because I dont want anybody else reading it. LOL. Greed and Fear. I dont think I need to worry tho. Something comes along that blows my mind and I eagerly keep checking for followups as the thread fades away. Not that theres anything particularly interesting in this thread.:)
 
A picture is worth a thousand words. In the case of some contributors, it is worth many more than a thousand words.

The candles are the NQ from Friday, 2 min bars. The blue line is the cash index NDX.X.
 

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The cash index time scale in your chart, is shifted 15 min. to
the right. The indexes close @ 15:00 CT. :confused:
Or am I a little thick and it was a joke? :D
 
It appears so, but I didn't do it on purpose.
I just plotted it in Q-charts. Why it put a 15 minute delay in the cash index, I have no idea.

I apologize to those furiously working on their new NDX/NQ crossover method...
:D
 
Quote from peterfigliozzi:

A picture is worth a thousand words. In the case of some contributors, it is worth many more than a thousand words.

The candles are the NQ from Friday, 2 min bars. The blue line is the cash index NDX.X.

most of time, you can't tell them apart, any diff will be quickly corrected
 

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Quote from nkhoi:

most of time, you can't tell them apart, any diff will be quickly corrected

Exactly! Can you believe how much effort is being spent on this topic?
 
Quote from nkhoi:

most of time, you can't tell them apart, any diff will be quickly corrected

note (after looking at grob's chart) the above apply to es only :D
 
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