I didn't say $40 oil this summer, I said this fall, IF the US goes into recession. $70 oil is so far off the long-term trend line it can't be anything but a bubble, and recessions tend to pop bubbles.
When I invoked Bill Lipschutz, his philosophy is that he only
trades G8 currencies. And that's also what I trade, plus AUD and CHF. Point is, I only trade majors and don't mess around with NOK or SEK or Dinars or anything else, where (a) unless you're a specialist in those countries, you don't know what's going on, (b) there's no liquidity, and (c) the spreads are horrendous.
Whatever the dictionary definition of a cross is, what I mean by it is a trade that is constructed artificially out of two legs. You could, if you wanted to, play EURUSD as a cross, by say shorting EURGBP and longing GBPUSD. And in fact when I spread my bets around I end up doing a lot of that kind of thing, the advantage being that you can enter and exit the two positions separately. But if your actual intention is to short EURUSD, then of course it's a totally stupid way of playing it.
My actual intention back then was to short GBP against CAD, because USD was dropping against both currencies. I could equally well have split my bet in two and shorted both GBPUSD and USDCAD. So yeah, in that sense it was a cross. But it was also a play between two majors, where I felt I understood what was going on, and in fact successfully rode it down from 2.15, missing the bottom at 2.08 but catching it on the bounce at 2.11.
What's CADNOK going to do next? No earthly idea.