Which book scared you the most?

[Specterx]

FWIW... I've read a lot of doom & gloom books over the years, not just about markets/econ but more general aspects of society.

My takeaway is that nobody can predict the future with even moderate accuracy/precision, unless the predictions being made are trivial or obvious. And even then, anything to do with politics or society often takes off in random directions.

 

[countryBoy641]

I haven't been reading any current "doom and gloom" books, but I pay very close attention to some of the stats on debt levels, especially for sovereigns.
Best current source on that are videos and writings from Luke Gromen.
He has many vids on Youtube.
From my POV, he's the current Guru.
Flashback to the last time analogous, was mid to late 1970's.
Bookstores were loaded with doom and gloom investment books.
Much more than today.
***
Analysis by Mr. Luke Gromen says that in the late 1970's U.S. had debt to GDP @ ~ 0.40%.
Currently it's at ~140%.
The debt cannot be serviced anymore.
Any FED "trump card play" is somewhere between unlikely and impossible.
***
In the late 1970's I didn't believe the rampant pessimism.
I got Series 7 registered in April 1982 (Dean Witter Reynolds).
Fast forward to today ... I think the pessimism is justified.
Everybody is playing their own hand of cards.
Act accordingly.

 

[zdreg]

It is not that the predictions are wrong. It is the timing of the predictions that are inaccurate. Nearly everything takes longer than you expect.

"markets can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent." Old Wall Street saying

 

[Laissez Faire]

It is not that the predictions are wrong. It is the timing of the predictions that are inaccurate. Nearly everything takes longer than you expect.

Lacking the timing aspect a prediction is more or less useless.

What's the value in knowing there will be a market collapse some time in the future? 1 year from now? 10 years? 50? 100?

"markets can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent." Old Wall Street saying

Actually, that's John Maynard Keynes.

Which also said that "In thew long run we are all dead."

 

[zdreg]

Actually, that's John Maynard Keynes.

No one can prove for certain that he originated the sayings.

 

[Sprout]

That's right. Which book in trading/finance/economics scared you the most? Either because of its Doom & Gloom outlook, or maybe the advice was just so terrible that it frightened you? lol.

I am continuing reading AFTERSHOCK -Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown

I do have to say, I haven't even read fiction books that have scared me as bad as this text. It does have some very negative and terrible predictions for the western world, and while their worst (that they were so sure about) has failed to happen (so far), some of their predictions did happen, and I have to say, currently with what I see happening, it's falling in line with the rest of the books' predictions.

Hoping I'm worried about nothing here... about 50 pages into it so far.

What was the methodology used to forecast - Scenario Planning?

 

[Sprout]

I haven't been reading any current "doom and gloom" books, but I pay very close attention to some of the stats on debt levels, especially for sovereigns.
Best current source on that are videos and writings from Luke Gromen.
He has many vids on Youtube.
From my POV, he's the current Guru.
Flashback to the last time analogous, was mid to late 1970's.
Bookstores were loaded with doom and gloom investment books.
Much more than today.
***
Analysis by Mr. Luke Gromen says that in the late 1970's U.S. had debt to GDP @ ~ 0.40%.
Currently it's at ~140%.
The debt cannot be serviced anymore.
Any FED "trump card play" is somewhere between unlikely and impossible.
***
In the late 1970's I didn't believe the rampant pessimism.
I got Series 7 registered in April 1982 (Dean Witter Reynolds).
Fast forward to today ... I think the pessimism is justified.
Everybody is playing their own hand of cards.
Act accordingly.

What is your source for ~140%? The following has 108%;
https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

 

[countryBoy641]

What is your source for ~140%? The following has 108%;
https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

source is Luke Gromen.
And I don't take numbers from any central Government too literally.
too many vested interests.
too many highly funded public sector jobs to protect.
and even at 108%, this country is probably way out over the ski tips.
Next recession will magnify all the leverage.
If you look through the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, he never admitted any problems until it blew up in his face.
I expect no different here.

 

[Zwaen]

After 2008 I was hooked on that site ( something with a hedge and a zero) and read every article. Not a book but close.

When I matured more I saw all the flaws in the bad analyses. It’s just a business model targeting a certain niche in customers. I also read they were exposed one time.

 

[The_Krakenite]

If you look through the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, he never admitted any problems until it blew up in his face.

One thing that annoys me in regard to that fellow who Made-Off with the money...

Everyone seems to think that Harry Markopolos was the one who figured it out. This is bullshit.

Way back to the beginning, Ed Thorp already figured this out in the early days of running his own hedge fund. In fact, he wrote an article about his findings, but no one was listening.

Jim Simons while running his own hedge fund also came to the conclusion that Madoff was running a ponzi scheme, when he tried to figure out a way to duplicate it with his own algos, and came to the same facts as Thorp did earlier.

Suddenly, years later Harry Markopolos is the super-sleuth? Like no one thought of this yesterday?

Also was sad to watch Harry Markopolos's unstellar performance in regard to the GE fiasco...