Where's the inflation? US CPI unexpectedly drops 0.1%

Quote from trefoil:

So, just to make this abundantly clear, in bad times and when first coming out of a recession, the birth/death ratio and the survey where it is used, the Establishment Survey, will lead to a tendency to undercount the number of people actually employed, while in sustained expansions it becomes more accurate.

This is what the pros know. Which, of course, is different from what an Elite Trader knows. [/B]
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I.e. it is an inaccurate measure. Thanks for the corroboration, fellow Elite Trader.

"In our opinion, flawed BLS survey results, month-after-month, do the public a huge disservice. While its results point to a slowly recovering economy, TrimTabs’ results point to a dangerously weak economy."

http://www.businessinsider.com/trim...as-5x-worse-than-what-the-bls-reported-2010-2

... you say, tomato I say tomahto:D
 
The birth/death adjustment added about 2 million jobs during the months of 2009, which were included in the numbers those months, and cheered by all. At the end of the year they were all quietly adjusted out, just like the year before.

I do actually think the economy is generating jobs, now, in some states, but that doesn't make the government data anywhere near honest. They use it to pretend jobs are created.

If they wanted honest jobs numbers, it would be much cheaper to get them than the fake ones. All they'd need to do it would be a database by individual person, with flags to say what category they were in. They don't WANT honest numbers. They want GOOD numbers.
 
Quote from thriftybob:

If its fuels, its 30 or 40%.
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Talk about trying to exaggerate!

U.S retail gas prices - 6 year chart.
http://gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=3

You can see gas was about $2/gal 6 full years ago and is now about $2.86. At just your low of 30% annual, starting at $2 6 years ago, it would be $9.50+ now.

I have been mentioning on ET for a while now that inflation is and will remain tame for quite some time - you just don't get a tough job market and a so-so stock market and have prices take off. Inflation? It will come when the DOW hits 30000, NAS 10000, etc. Billions of $s of peoples money is tied up in stocks and they simply won't and can't pay more and more unless they get more at some point.

I can find value meals at fast food places cheaper then they were 5, 10 and maybe pushing 15-20 years ago. No, that's not the only measure of inflation - actually there are many things going down in price, as companies beat each other up to sell. I could go on and on - computers, living room sets, big screen tvs - just about everything. The only things not going down seem to be tickets to events and the associated parking - that is because the number of seats is limited, however that is OK because no one really HAS to go to a concert, baseball game, etc. (they still do in huge numbers though btw)

JJacksET4
 
the main cause of the depreciation of the US dollar would be world losing confidence in the USD and or not supporting the USD for international transactions, not increases in the CPI, I'm not saying CPI is not important, but how the world views the US and the USD has more effect on the USD than does the CPI rate
 
Quote from dtrader98:

I.e. it is an inaccurate measure. Thanks for the corroboration, fellow Elite Trader.

"In our opinion, flawed BLS survey results, month-after-month, do the public a huge disservice. While its results point to a slowly recovering economy, TrimTabs’ results point to a dangerously weak economy."

http://www.businessinsider.com/trim...as-5x-worse-than-what-the-bls-reported-2010-2

... you say, tomato I say tomahto:D
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That article confuses Establishment Survey and Household Survey methodologies. It would take more effort than it's worth to pick its mistakes apart, but here's one simple way of knowing that it's more polemic than data: do a search for the word "Establishment". You won't find it. Neither will you find the word "Household". But in some places it's referring to Household Survey results, while in other places it clearly is referencing Establishment Survey data.
Either they're confused or dishonest.
 
let me ask you back a simple question: How do you plan on repaying this massive amount of debt?

Even the best decade in American history , economically speaking, has hardly balanced the budget. Now a multiple of previous levels has been issued. Also, consumers will never ever be able to live a leveraged lifestyle as what we have witnessed before. Additionally, if you ever traveled to China recently you may have witnessed that the images of Expo 2010 are, just images. Demand for commodities will last another 20-30 years just to reach comparable levels of infrastructure that the West enjoyed decades ago. Yes it all looks modern and fancy right now but only in select cities and even there only in the "show-off" districts.

Everything that drives inflation is there, Kassz, everything that is needed is a last push, I dont know when its gonna happen but I know it will happen.

P.S.: You may have noticed that the US is actually completely behind the curve in terms of inflation. Inflation has massively pulled up in Asia and some other markets as well. Pretty much every central bank around the US and Europe is raising rates already or planning to do so soon, all Asia ex Japan, Australia, NZ, Canada, ....



Quote from Kassz007:

I get your point. But why do you assume nobody will be able to do anything to combat inflation in the future?
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Quote from peilthetraveler:

Look at the 18 month chart. Theres your 40% right there.
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LOL you love picking out strange time frames to support your opinion, don't you?

Why didn't you look at the 37 month chart? 87 month?
 
Quote from asiaprop:

let me ask you back a simple question: How do you plan on repaying this massive amount of debt?

Even the best decade in American history , economically speaking, has hardly balanced the budget. Now a multiple of previous levels has been issued. Also, consumers will never ever be able to live a leveraged lifestyle as what we have witnessed before. Additionally, if you ever traveled to China recently you may have witnessed that the images of Expo 2010 are, just images. Demand for commodities will last another 20-30 years just to reach comparable levels of infrastructure that the West enjoyed decades ago. Yes it all looks modern and fancy right now but only in select cities and even there only in the "show-off" districts.

Everything that drives inflation is there, Kassz, everything that is needed is a last push, I dont know when its gonna happen but I know it will happen.

P.S.: You may have noticed that the US is actually completely behind the curve in terms of inflation. Inflation has massively pulled up in Asia and some other markets as well. Pretty much every central bank around the US and Europe is raising rates already or planning to do so soon, all Asia ex Japan, Australia, NZ, Canada, ....
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I agree completely regarding the payback of USA debt. USA NEEDS inflation. Which is the reason for all of the printing. My complaint is with people who bitch about the Fed printing because it will bring inflation. Some would rather see deflation, which would be the end. Default city.

That being said, I do believe that hyperinflation is NOT inevitable, and that central banks will be able to combat it. If I played the crystal ball game like many others, I would predict moderate inflation is where we're headed. The article I posted clearly demonstrates that inflation is not here yet. It was meant as a counter argument to those on here who try to argue that inflation is already here and running rampant.
 
Quote from Covertibility:

If you belive the CPI then you also belive the birth/death model.... the Lochness Monster, Big Foot, Santa Claus, and that George Washington was America's first president. I know noone here knows who the first president was. And no, John Hancock was the 2nd, just in case someone guesses him.
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I noticed you did not stay president of the United States, so I am guessing that you mean Peyton "manning" Randolph and not John "muppetbabies" Hanson.

Or you might be going weird and saying there was an Iroquois or Cherokee president.
 
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