As a true newbie to this forum, I am mystified as to why any trader wants to call a bottom. What we have in the market is a beautifully strong trend, eventhough it is pointing down. Clearly, the technical damage done to the markets means that when we DO reach a bottom, we will not enter a new bull market for some time.
Equally important, the lessons we learned from 1982 to 2000 really do not exactly fit this situation. A much closer analog would be the 1962 to 1974 time period, or even the 1966 to 1982 time period, complete with a somewhat murky war, growing budget decifits, and most importantly, a crisis of confidence in the government and the dollar.
I guess my point is that the macro picture is not very encouraging, and the market reflects this. Enjoy the trend and protect your profits.
Equally important, the lessons we learned from 1982 to 2000 really do not exactly fit this situation. A much closer analog would be the 1962 to 1974 time period, or even the 1966 to 1982 time period, complete with a somewhat murky war, growing budget decifits, and most importantly, a crisis of confidence in the government and the dollar.
I guess my point is that the macro picture is not very encouraging, and the market reflects this. Enjoy the trend and protect your profits.