Where would you invest if you think oil prices will go up in 1-2 years?

M

misterno

I looked at USO

USO exactly trails WTI. So looked at USO put options because call options were expensive

I want to sell Put options for USO but then what if the WTI keeps dropping and buyer wants to sell back the option to me before the expiration? Then I will be toast

So is there a European style option for USO or Brent?

Any suggestions on where to invest?
 
USO (as most commodity ETFs) is bad for long-term investment due to time/rollover decay. They have to roll over futures monthly, losing money in the process (unless market is in backwardation vs contango, which is most of them time). Even though USO is not as bad as most other ETFs since they split their investment between futures expiring over the next 12 months, not just the front, but still..

If you think oil is going to go up in 1-2 years- best thing is to buy oil futures with those expirations.
 
Both the leveraged instruments and the far dated futures will have the rolls build into them. A better way to do this is to get exposure to stocks/etf in the oil stocks and the related sectors (think oil producers, refiners etc).
 
XOM and/or XLE.

I would sell a long term put and buy a short term call, effectively making a forward contract without worrying to much about Oil contango.
 
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