Where will SPY be at the end of May?

[J.Joseph]

I have a few points that I've been watching out for and tomorrow may or may not be one of them. My plan is to bet against it with a small position as trends tend to go longer than you expect, but here's my view of it.

The top left chart is the whole run from March 2009 to present.
The middle chart zooms in on the last leg of that (November 16, 2012 to present) and shows a breakout.
The bottom right chart zooms in on the last leg of the middle chart (april 18, 2013 to present) and does not show a breakout.

The price is dangerously close to the support trend line and a drop in the price would mean the first breakout of a 5 week run. Again, I'm betting against it for statistical reasons, but it's a possibility. Another possibility is that it will hit that support and blow through the top resistance trend line to mark the end of this massive rally. Or it could just go up like normal and wait another few weeks to break out. Who knows. If it doesn't break through the support, I think the "sell in May" saying may not be accurate this year.

 

[TILT2]

Quote from J.Joseph:
I have a few points that I've been watching out for and tomorrow may or may not be one of them. My plan is to bet against it with a small position as trends tend to go longer than you expect, but here's my view of it.
The top left chart is the whole run from March 2009 to present.
The middle chart zooms in on the last leg of that (November 16, 2012 to present) and shows a breakout.
The bottom right chart zooms in on the last leg of the middle chart (april 18, 2013 to present) and does not show a breakout.
The price is dangerously close to the support trend line and a drop in the price would mean the first breakout of a 5 week run. Again, I'm betting against it for statistical reasons, but it's a possibility. Another possibility is that it will hit that support and blow through the top resistance trend line to mark the end of this massive rally. Or it could just go up like normal and wait another few weeks to break out. Who knows. If it doesn't break through the support, I think the "sell in May" saying may not be accurate this year.

there is no scientific evidence that sell in may works every time.

 

[BlueTurtle]

Quote from J.Joseph:



The price is dangerously close to the support trend line and a drop in the price would mean the first breakout of a 5 week run. Again, I'm betting against it for statistical reasons, but it's a possibility. Another possibility is that it will hit that support and blow through the top resistance trend line to mark the end of this massive rally. Or it could just go up like normal and wait another few weeks to break out. Who knows. If it doesn't break through the support, I think the "sell in May" saying may not be accurate this year.

so you are saying the market could:

1. go lower
2. go higher
3. wait
4. wait and go higher

and it's almost the last week in May....1/12th of the year.....if you use the whole month. pretty good odds selling will work one day. lol

With all this TA.....it's funny how we get 100000000 different observations......that tells us something!!!

if I see a full moon after a gann cycle with an Elliot wave, 5b, then I know between 11 a.m. and noon the market will likely reverse through the pivot to an oversold RSI engulfing candle that stops out
the scared longs and triggers institutions to sell covered calls....

I am the guru.

 

[J.Joseph]

Quote from BlueTurtle:

so you are saying the market could:

1. go lower
2. go higher
3. wait
4. wait and go higher

and it's almost the last week in May....1/12th of the year.....if you use the whole month. pretty good odds selling will work one day. lol

With all this TA.....it's funny how we get 100000000 different observations......that tells us something!!!

if I see a full moon after a gann cycle with an Elliot wave, 5b, then I know between 11 a.m. and noon the market will likely reverse through the pivot to an oversold RSI engulfing candle that stops out
the scared longs and triggers institutions to sell covered calls....

I am the guru.

LOL
Funny stuff. But whose account is 10% higher today than yesterday? Regardless of 4 possibilities, one was worthy of a bet because the risk and the reward made sense. Risk 1% to make at least 3% is a bet I'll take every time. I'll be right more than 1 in 3 times, and sometimes the win will be more than 3% like today. Who cares about "knowing?" Knowing is over-rated.