Where we are in gold today

[Debaser82]

Ignore the naysayers – gold is not in a bubble

Gold's headed for a bubble, but it's not there yet
We've heard it all before. Gold was in a bubble two years ago when it hit $650 an ounce, and before at $500. Gold will hit bubble territory one day but we are not there yet.

This bull market, which began in 2001, is now some eight years old. We are beyond the stealth phase and into the awareness phase.

Institutions have woken up to it, investors have woken up to it – but not all of them. We are not at the mania phase yet, there is no "new paradigm". That will come in several years' time - perhaps as governments and central banks start to talk about returning to a gold standard or similar.

Read full story here:

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/is-gold-in-a-bubble-94711.aspx

 

[morganist]

i think peilthetraveller will like this post.

can i ask debaser which newspaper do you work for. i think you might have told me before but i have forgotten.

 

[makloda]

So unless gold becomes a bubble it can't go down?

 

[Ivanovich]

Quote from makloda:

So unless gold becomes a bubble it can't go down?

Shh...don't spoil it!

 

[makloda]

Quote from Debaser82:

Institutions have woken up to it, investors have woken up to it – but not all of them.

Like all the smart money like sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and endowments that "woke up" to commodities as an asset class in early 2008 and put billions to work in index linked commodity swaps?

Commodities never went through the classic bubble playbook with hordes of bus drivers and nurses quitting their jobs because they made millions in long dated crude oil options. And despite of all that the CRB/GSCI commodity indexes still dropped 65-70% within 6 months.

 

[TrueRange]

I believe we are in the "new paradigm" area. Find me one gold bear and one dollar bull on TV, WSJ.com, bulge bracket analyst or any other newsource(all classic sentiment indicators) and i`ll buy you a dodo bird egg omellette for breakfast tomorrow. Not to say we cannot go higher. But we are most certainly closer to the top than most think.

 

[lrm21]

A popular upscale mall in south Florida closed a shoe boutique (which my wife loved) and instead put in a gold buyer store

I think gold is getting to a bubble stage
-there are gold commercials running 24/7 on evrey radio station
- everyone is talking about gold IRA why the fuck would you put something that produces no income in a long term retirement unless you expect an economic collapse and if that happens how long will tax shelters accounts last?
- nem just unwound all there hedges
- everyone knows the dollar is worhtless, or deficit is out of control yada yada, which means the pain will come if the FED raises rates.
- I get invites to gold parties at least once a week

this is getting to be 04/05 real estate mania.

I am not saying gold has topped, just that there is too much talk at this point, and its hard to seperate the fundamentals.

 

[achilles28]

Quote from Debaser82:

Ignore the naysayers – gold is not in a bubble

Gold's headed for a bubble, but it's not there yet
We've heard it all before. Gold was in a bubble two years ago when it hit $650 an ounce, and before at $500. Gold will hit bubble territory one day but we are not there yet.

This bull market, which began in 2001, is now some eight years old. We are beyond the stealth phase and into the awareness phase.

Replace "Gold" with the US Dollar, and the graph is accurate

 

[Anaconda]

Quote from lrm21:


this is getting to be 04/05 real estate mania.

The real estate mania started in 2003, really moreso in 2002. It lasted all the way till 2006.

And it's funny to see so many think that gold buyer shops are a sign of the bubble. The public are sellers of gold, not buyers. They are also buying at ripoff prices to smelt and resell via fut contracts to smart money.

When you see lots of gold seller shops, then it's a sign of a top.

 

[Debaser82]

Quote from makloda:

Like all the smart money like sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and endowments that "woke up" to commodities as an asset class in early 2008 and put billions to work in index linked commodity swaps?

Commodities never went through the classic bubble playbook with hordes of bus drivers and nurses quitting their jobs because they made millions in long dated crude oil options. And despite of all that the CRB/GSCI commodity indexes still dropped 65-70% within 6 months.

Gold isn't a commodity, it's money.

But anyway, on a more serious note, gold has been known for underperforming the commodity class in the early stages of previous commodity bull markets last century and this one.

Which is quite logical when you think of it given the difference in fundamentals on going into gold VS wheat or oil for instance.

Ofcourse past performance does not guarantee future profit but I am sure everyone on ET is aware of that.