Where the 47 Percent Live

[PHOENIX TRADING]

Quote from Mav88:

Dear idiot number 2,

Question: What kind of simpleton thinks there are no Obama voters in red states?

If only it were true.

 

[Mav88]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

Again RCG ,not so sure. Neo Nazis are the dumbest motherfuckers on the planet



http://www.adl.org/hate_symbols/numbers_88.asp

that may be so, too bad I'm not one of them eh? this is how I know I have won the real argument... So cliched... so stupid

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from RCG Trader:

88, knows this, I don't know why conservatives just live in an alternate reality from the rest of us.

Shaking head and rolling eyes.

 

[Mercor]

AK likes to use percents instead of numbers.

It's his only way to make his points look true.

 

[Mav88]

Quote from Mercor:

AK likes to use percents instead of numbers.

It's his only way to make his points look true.

Exactly, it is the democrat 'snake in the grass' way. Even the NY Times says the moochers are dominantly democrats.

Democrat dishonest trick: take red state- blue state numbers, pretend that states vote as a voting block, and never use weighted population averages when comparing states.

This is a much more honest viewpoint:

Paul Krugman is in puzzlement, having observed that Red States get more welfare funding, while Republican voters oppose the welfare state. He portrays Republicans as “Moochers” who are either hypocritical or too stupid to know their own best interest.

But as we know, states do not vote, individuals do. There is only a paradox if Republican voters receive welfare at above average rates while voting against it. From the Gellman-paradox we know that the low-income voters who drag down the Red States average tend to vote disproportionally for Democrats. Republican voters earn significantly more than Democrats, even though Red state earn less than Blue states.

Krugman reports no individual level data, so let me. The Maxwell Poll has detailed information about welfare use. The data is from 2004-2007. During this period in these polls a plurality of voters supported Democrats. I will graph the two-party vote, more data is at the end.


Hardly surprising, we see that in a two-party split, 60-80% of welfare recipients are Democrats, while full time Workers are evenly divided between parties.

You have similar results in this recent NPR-Poll. Among the Long Term Unemployed, 72% of the two-party support goes to Democrats.

It appears that once more common sense is right and the impression left by the New York Times wrong. Indeed, people who live off the government disproportionally support Democrats.

Given that Krugman is aware of the Gellman-Paradox, he should have reported the individual level data first instead of wasting everyone’s time with state-level aggregation that we already know is wrong. Instead he acknowledged that state level data is probably wrong (to get cover), then goes ahead and relies on the wrong method anyway, since it produces the results he wants. The false impression that Republicans use more welfare is already spread around the internet by liberals who still trust Krugman.

Appendix:

Share of Recipients of each program that self-identified as supporters of Republican party in 2004-2007 Maxwell Poll:

Gov. Subsidized Housing 12%
Medicaid: 16%
Food Stamps: 20%
Unemployment Compensation: 21%
Welfare or public assistance: 22%
Disability benefits from government 25%

http://super-economy.blogspot.com/2012/02/do-welfare-recipients-mostly-vote.html

 

[Mav88]

BTW RCG, how about another inconvenient fact, How about we plot the percent moochers by state versus percent black population?

I dare you

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Mercor:

AK likes to use percents instead of numbers.

It's his only way to make his points look true.

You conservatives use them every time you try to make a welfare or crime rate case, so why not use them now?

 

[Mav88]

Quote from RCG Trader:

You conservatives use them every time you try to make a welfare or crime rate case, so why not use them now?

It is like this RCG, it takes a certain amount of intelligent discretion to know when percentages are appropriate or not. If I ask what is the rate, then usually it is a percentage. If I ask where do they live then I count them up and see where they live.

The fact that this is lost on you is not surprising since you are on the left.

 

[jficquette]

You have to add government workers, union workers, government contractors working as employees to get the real picture.

For instance check out DC. Obama got 97% of the vote but only 23% are on government assistance.

Does anyone think that only 23% of DC depends on the government for their livelihood?

 

[Spike Trader]

Quote from Lucrum:

Shaking head and rolling eyes.

We haven't heard from Luke in quite a while, i hope he is ok..