Where is the top?

Quote from killATwill:

after the fact analysis or not, i thought it was a pretty good post.
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My comments on that thread were not after the fact. My comments have nothing to do with what comes next. I'm not making any predictions in my post here or in the other related thread. I don't see how it is "after the fact" as jackbird says.

I appreciate your kind comment.
 
Quote from FuturesTrader71:

in an obviously uptrending market. What do you get by getting short here?
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very misguided post. as long as you don't bet the farm, one can accumulate shorts til the cows come home. The market is weak very weak. We may not be at a top, but with each successive high, the market weakens more.
 
killatwill, i am doing very well thank you.

and when the market turns bearish, so will i

all these people trying to fade a massive bull market are just fueling a further bull rise

it's frigging amazing

generally speaking, i'm a contrarian. i buy what everybody else hates (when it's cheap) and sell when it's expensive

but that does not mean i try to pick up pennies in front of a locomotive... the market is a bull market. when and until it changes

of course, all the momo jockeys are still in 20th century mode and playing the OLD bull market, when the new market has been in AMEX (not nasdaq), and in ER2 and TRANSports and GOLD etc.

positionwise, i have been adding to my longs on the Nikkei...

Nikkei is historically massively cheap compared to the US markets...

my longterm portfolio is 20% shorts right now. but none of those are index shorts.
 
In general, it just doesn't pay to predict markets. Just go with the flow. Right now its sideways and up. Why the hurry, if it is going to go down, it will, and you can short when it does break down.
 
Quote from FuturesTrader71:

Interesting reply. I don't get into these "who has the bigger stick" matches, so nice try.

I'm sure your extensive experience in picking tops has served you well in this market. My opinion is not something I learned in a book. It is from getting zapped trying to call tops and bottoms in the past.

As far as the call on the DAX, I don't recall making one. I am a trader not an analyst. My opinion changes at a moment's notice depending on what the market tells me. You seem to make no contribution to the thread with your comment, so I will leave you to deal with whatever it is that is bothering you.

As far as calling the only market (ie. ER2), I can also say the same for the YM, ES, NASDAQ composite (which also made a new 5-yr high today), FDAX which is near 4 1/2 yr highs, EuroSTOXX and so on and so forth. Do you need more ideas to show that the trend is either sideways or up across the board?

As far as recruiting, that is something I do very rarely. I do, however, trade this market every day for at least 6 hrs per day. I do so with high frequency and often enough to understand what price is telling me.

Again, thank you for trying to recommend what I should with my time and how I should comment on this board. I'm sure your post was well worth the time you put into it. Please feel free to give us your original analysis of the current action.

Best regards and happy shorting to you. :D
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Mostly like your comments FuturesTrader71;
usually BUT NOT always prefer prefer the long side in a bull market.

However QQQQ, with all the data has made an obvious top;
look @ all the data if you think not.
And it has not stayed above its 50 dma much this year;
it may make a higher high this year, but not near as strong as IWM,SPY/DIA & derivatives.:cool: QQQQ Could get stronger, like SPY.

Dont see much point of very early shorting strength in an uptrend,good way to get killed;shorting weaker QQQQ/tek /GOOG shorts has paid off this year.

Hardly a huge victory for bulls ,QQQQ finally closed 1 day above 50dma.:cool:
First- last weeks of month can be bullish
 
Quote from murray t turtle:

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Mostly like your comments FuturesTrader71;
usually BUT NOT always prefer prefer the long side in a bull market.

However QQQQ, with all the data has made an obvious top;
look @ all the data if you think not.
And it has not stayed above its 50 dma much this year;
it may make a higher high this year, but not near as strong as IWM,SPY/DIA & derivatives.:cool: QQQQ Could get stronger, like SPY.

Dont see much point of very early shorting strength in an uptrend,good way to get killed;shorting weaker QQQQ/tek /GOOG shorts has paid off this year.

Hardly a huge victory for bulls ,QQQQ finally closed 1 day above 50dma.:cool:
First- last weeks of month can be bullish
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I agree with you Murray. My comment is not a prediction that the market will continue to go up. Maybe I was ambiguous in what I said. My main point in my original post is to say that it is best to let things develop a bit - let the market tip its hand first - before getting into it. This naturally depends on which market you are in but, generally, we are still strong. I don't predict markets. I'm a daytrader and my opinion moves with small fluctuations. I don't carry positions overnight.
 
Quote from jamis359:

tubytrader: You do have a factor working in your favor -- VIX at 10.95 today, there's not a lot of room for the market to go up much before VIX hits long-term support at 10.1.

Also, gold and oil look poised to go higher.
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There is not always an inverse relationship between volatility and prices. Low volatility can signal a change, yet the change doesn't necessarily mean lower prices.
 
You're right, QQQShort. VIX is not a perfect indicator (what indicator is?), but it's been fairly reliable. Low VIX, market top; high VIX, market bottom. There have been exceptions -- I think in the 90's VIX slowly climbed along with the bull market.
 
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