Where is the SPX going once the rate decision is released?

mario0887 · Jul 30, 2019

What do you think the projected levels are for the SPX after tomorrow to end the week.

tomorton · Jul 30, 2019

Its not something I've ever thought about this time or ever. I'm long the Dow index but that's its in an uptrend, nothing consciously to do with the Fed.

I tend to the general wisdom that good news comes in uptrends and bad news comes in downtrends. But I guess we'll soon see.

tommcginnis · Jul 30, 2019

When the markets realize that no rate hike is coming tomorrow,
AND that no rate hike is *guaranteed* (except by data, not by Tweet),
they will puke up July before it becomes August: -2% from time of announcement to bottom.

36 hours later (when the reality of FED labels like "sweet spot" and "light hand on the tiller" and "best of all possible economies" hits home, and they realize that the wonders of the domestic U.S. economy really *can* spell continued success in cap.ex., wages, and corporate earnings... *then* they will pile back in, and ride that sweet, sweet gravy train back up to where it had been 36 hours earlier, plus a scooch.

SO! "Puke, wipe mouth, resurgence." 36 hours.

tommcginnis · Jul 30, 2019

tommcginnis said:
When the markets realize that no rate hike is coming tomorrow,
AND that no rate hike is *guaranteed* (except by data, not by Tweet),
they will puke up July before it becomes August: -2% from time of announcement to bottom.

Ooops. Should been "drop" instead of "hike."

Overnight · Jul 30, 2019

mario0887 said:
What do you think the projected levels are for the SPX after tomorrow to end the week.

I have no clue, as I was not involved with market when they last cut rates in 2008. But I'm still long that crummy YM entry.

KevMo · Jul 30, 2019

Yep. Though, even 25 is so well telegraphed I can't see it any other way. Three possibilities likely the same outcome.

Not bad, just a skinned knee, perhaps a quick face-plant. Then up and off to the northeast.

Powell is a pretty calm cat too. Plain language, cool demeanor. Nice counterbalance to orange

tommcginnis said:
When the markets realize that no rate hike is coming tomorrow,
AND that no rate hike is *guaranteed* (except by data, not by Tweet),
they will puke up July before it becomes August: -2% from time of announcement to bottom.

36 hours later (when the reality of FED labels like "sweet spot" and "light hand on the tiller" and "best of all possible economies" hits home, and they realize that the wonders of the domestic U.S. economy really *can* spell continued success in cap.ex., wages, and corporate earnings... *then* they will pile back in, and ride that sweet, sweet gravy train back up to where it had been 36 hours earlier, plus a scooch.

SO! "Puke, wipe mouth, resurgence." 36 hours.

tommcginnis · Jul 31, 2019

SWING & a miss...... :wtf:

Haven't even read the statement yet.
Press briefing may provide "pop" yet. Sheeeesh.

"Release the doves!" flutterflutterflutterflutter.... :banghead:

CNBC's Rick Santelli just mentioned, "Well, *there's* a quarter-point gain wasted...."

He nailed that one.....

tomorton · Jul 31, 2019

My set of open trades has just gone in the money and two more have triggered since 7. Having a cool glass of Medoc.

Cuddles · Jul 31, 2019

someone explain this one to me? Why was the rate cut/cheap money not welcomed by the market?

Overnight · Jul 31, 2019

Here4money said:
someone explain this one to me? Why was the rate cut/cheap money not welcomed by the market?

Because the markets were expecting a continuation of more easing with more rate cuts to follow after this one. Powell not only said that that is most likely not going to happen, but that tightening may be a possibility based on data. So all of those expectations that were priced in, just got priced out, in a big way.