Where is the S&P 500 going if it follows the path of 1929-1930

Atikon said:
the fed RAISED interest rates back then. One of the biggest blunders in financial history. You should know that
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Well they cant cut them much more now.

Global recession on the way.

Are the sheeple going to be spending or saving over the next year.

Almost everyone I know who still has a job is trying to save at the moment incase they get laid off.

Plans for the new kitchen, car, house extension all put on hold.

I suppose at the end of of it there will be pent up demand assuming people have any savings left.
 
southall said:
Well they cant cut them much more now.

Global recession on the way.

Are the sheeple going to spending or saving over the next year.

Almost everyone I know who has a job is trying to save at the moment incase they get laid off.

Plans for the new kitchen, car, house extension all put on hold.

I suppose at the end of of it there will be pent up demand assuming people have any savings left.
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they can print money as much as they want too. Thus they can inflate prices as much as and as long as they want.

But I agree with you that consumer sentiment has changed. I believe ppl are going to be more careful in the future. PPl borrowed or are spending their savings right now. These savings are going to be replenished or build up and credit will have to be repaid. I don't believe in a V Shaped Recovery, but as long as this Virus will only affect two quarters I'm not seeing a depression either
 
southall said:
It hasnt seemed to have helped the Japaneese stock market over the last 30 years
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What do you mean? It was at 30year highs before the corona crash and it still is relativley high to the compared to the last 30 years. Japan has zero growth hence zero inflation, but that's not a monetary issue
 
Atikon said:
the fed RAISED interest rates back then. One of the biggest blunders in financial history. You should know that
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The fed fueled the bubble back then. That was a bigger blunder.

Funny how that's works. To stop bubbles from happening The Fed was created. They do a lousy job each time so what do we do, give them even more control.
 
Junkou said:
View attachment 224645
The correlation so far is 94%! If it really follows the path, the S&P 500 Index will climb to about 3000 at the end of June, and fall to 1500 in April next year. A 50% crash!
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Forget 1929. I believe this is how we will end up in the long run: Japan, version 2.

FYI Nikkei topped on 12/01/1989 and hasn't come close to the ATH since. That's 30 years and counting.

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going by facebook groups (100k+ members) a lot of amateur retails are putting money back in screaming the bottom was in March and showing major FOMO right now...I like the theory that the market drop caught a lot of whales off guard who are now pumping it higher to reclaim $$$ before pulling the rug for the real drop.

of course i only like that theory because i am a salty bear bag holding puts like a retard. And i am only right 10% of the time, every time.
 
zghorner said:
I like the theory that the market drop caught a lot of whales off guard who are now pumping it higher to reclaim $$$ before pulling the rug for the real drop.
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That is a valid explanation. I hope it's true because it means there is a lot more trading to be done.

schizo said:
Forget 1929. I believe this is how we will end up in the long run: Japan, version 2.

FYI Nikkei topped on 12/01/1989 and hasn't come close to the ATH since. That's 30 years and counting.

View attachment 224659
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USA is not Japan. Japan is a mostly closed society, that impacts growth.
 
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