Where is the recession? Show me ?

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from PohPoh:

Yup...
bear market rally...and a crazy one at that...

1407, 1429.50 and 1471 is coming for spoo..

You think you can push this powerful rally down? Dream on suckers , dream on.

There was no recession to begin with and now the market is confirming my message to you in big bold waves of bullish actions every other trading day. Do you still have a sense of direction? Or you are a perpetual loser?

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

Wasn't 2003 also a suppose to be a bear market rally, too?

That bear market rally ended 5 years later in one of the most spectacular bull markets.

Thats all they can say, they are out of gas and grasping straws.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from S2007S:

We are in a recession, but its tough to convince people we are after the dow goes from 11750 to 12864 on some rate cuts and plenty of liquidity pumps to pump the hell out of the markets...

We couldn't get into a proper bear market, how could we end up in recession that you cannot prove?

For a bear market SPX had to close below 1250 and for a recession to be declared you need 2 quarters of negative GDP. Rest of it story telling, fortune- telling and forecasting based on one's depressive outlooks and personal bias.

Get some level headed thoughts in your minds and re butt my facts with your facts!

 

[dtrader98]

"For a bear market SPX had to close below 1250 and for a recession to be declared you need 2 quarters of negative GDP"

NBER has not used that definition for a very long time. They are considered by most economists to be the defacto statistic on recessions. However, the only problem is they do not proclaim any periods until way after the fact. Yet, if you only use the 2 qrt definition, you will not get their results.


from 2 days ago.
"NBER President: We are in a Recession"
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/economy/article/nber-president-recession_565132_3.html

While it's not official (yet), I'd tend to give his words some weight.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from dtrader98:

"For a bear market SPX had to close below 1250 and for a recession to be declared you need 2 quarters of negative GDP"

NBER has not used that definition for a very long time. They are considered by most economists to be the defacto statistic on recessions. However, the only problem is they do not proclaim any periods until way after the fact. Yet, if you only use the 2 qrt definition, you will not get their results.


from 2 days ago.
"NBER President: We are in a Recession"
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/economy/article/nber-president-recession_565132_3.html

While it's not official (yet), I'd tend to give his words some weight.

We can't keep changing the goal post and declaring recession at will. That definition by NBER has been around for 40 years so do not kid us around with this fudging activities.

Recession is a like a light bulb either its on or off, rest of it forecasting, story telling, fortune telling and obsession with doom and gloom. Its easy to scare people with negative stories.

You have seen nothing drastic happened in last 3 months so what kind of recession is this? The markets are shrugging off this nonsense too and moving higher much to the dismay of short traders at ET and doom and gloom club, shorts and per ma bears.

Boy did I see enough bears this time?

 

[dtrader98]

Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

We can't keep changing the goal post and declaring recession at will. That definition by NBER has been around for 40 years so do not kid us around with this fudging activities.

Recession is a like a light bulb either its on or off, rest of it forecasting, story telling, fortune telling and obsession with doom and gloom. Its easy to scare people with negative stories.

You have seen nothing drastic happened in last 3 months so what kind of recession is this? The markets are shrugging off this nonsense too and moving higher much to the dismay of short traders at ET and doom and gloom club, shorts and per ma bears.

Boy did I see enough bears this time?

I don't think you even understand what you wrote. NBER has been around a lot longer than 40 yrs. And they are not fortune tellers. I'm not even sure if you are referring to NBER's methodology when you say, "that definition (there is no explicit definition, it is a methodology)..." Are you talking about the 2 quarter negative GDP definition? Assuming you meant the later, I will take the word of NBER any day over your unsophisticated measurement. Note one of the reasons I accept their methodology (which is not completely disclosed) is that unlike the definition you reference, they do not revise their numbers all the time. That is one reason they wait until they are close to certain before proclaiming anything.

Secondly, I did not reference their methodology because it fits a bearish view (as I could care less either way). Rather, I chose it to point out that you are referencing a source that is not used by the majority of economic professionals.

 

[stock_trad3r]

No recession was actually officially called. Otherwise, it would be in the front page papers and all over TV. The imaginary, left wing generated recession is alive and well though.

 

[dtrader98]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

No recession was actually officially called. Otherwise, it would be in the front page papers and all over TV. The imaginary, left wing generated recession is alive and well though.

No one said a recession was "officially" called. Try to go back and read the posts a little bit (with a little emphasis on comprehension) before commenting.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

No recession was actually officially called. Otherwise, it would be in the front page papers and all over TV. The imaginary, left wing generated recession is alive and well though.

The recession occurred in the "minds" of these nefarious, destructive, debauched, delusional earth bound misfits. They are clueless, when asked for proof, just the same way a lunatic in a high walled compound can't prove his delusional state of mind. These people " invented " a recession out of thin air from what they were " feeling " in that mass depressive psychosis! They felt terrible hence this must be a recession !

Level headed calm people like me would wait for numbers and digest the bad news when it comes and deal with it and act upon it, rather than going through a minefield of emotional chaos. On April 30 we should have our first quarter GDP numbers and lets see if its negative number or not and than we go from there. But we will not become forecasters and fortune tellers predicting world events like a money grabbing monkey/astrologer! No way!


PS: Fortunately such negative sentiments puts a bottom in the equities markets and helped the bulls launch a powerful rally involving burning shorts and perma bears...LOL + The Feds came to our rescue, "manipulated" and " shoved" the SPX into higher grounds with all that power and might behind those green curtains!

 

[PohPoh]

have you consumed too much Jim Beam and puked in your own lap?
Can you read your delusional ramblings..?
Do you know how your beloved GDP is calculated?
You have NO CLUE!!!!

Were you around in the year 2000?
Was there a recession in 2000?
How about 2001?
or how about November 2001, at which point the recession was 'official' in your books.

Now, lets think...

Would you prefer to have been forward thinking, and note that the recession was coming? Would you have had a better result had started shorting, say, in mid/late 2000?

OR

Would you prefer to have been using lagging indicators with which you would most certainly lost a ton of money before 'they' tell us we are in a recession, and THEN act?

Do you understand the concept of SELL THE RUMOUR BUY THE FACT...?

We are at the very early stages of a significant inflationary recession. It's not going to happen all at once...

But when the recession does come full throttle, and is confirmed by your everloving bullshit indicator, I know that you will fade quietly into the night, either as a baiting shill, or like the lying, bitter, obtuse failed trader that you probably are...

Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

The recession occurred in the "minds" of these nefarious, destructive, debauched, delusional earth bound misfits. They are clueless, when asked for proof, just the same way a lunatic in a high walled compound can't prove his delusional state of mind. These people " invented " a recession out of thin air from what they were " feeling " in that mass depressive psychosis! They felt terrible hence this must be a recession !

Level headed calm people like me would wait for numbers and digest the bad news when it comes and deal with it and act upon it, rather than going through a minefield of emotional chaos. On April 30 we should have our first quarter GDP numbers and lets see if its negative number or not and than we go from there. But we will not become forecasters and fortune tellers predicting world events like a money grabbing monkey/astrologer! No way!


PS: Fortunately such negative sentiments puts a bottom in the equities markets and helped the bulls launch a powerful rally involving burning shorts and perma bears...LOL + The Feds came to our rescue, "manipulated" and " shoved" the SPX into higher grounds with all that power and might behind those green curtains!