Where is the recession? Show me ?

Quote from vergdb:

Wow. this forum is named Elite trader and the welcome I get is pretty rude. More like of a Elite Flamers has what this board became.
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get used to it. when you enter a room with almost 100.000 people
in it, it is a quite usual reaction if your attitude is to "clear things"
for them. has nothing to do with flaming. is just a normal reaction
to arrogance.
 
Quote from man:

get used to it. when you enter a room with almost 100.000 people
in it, it is a quite usual reaction if your attitude is to "clear things"
for them. has nothing to do with flaming. is just a normal reaction
to arrogance.
More...

Never been arrogant on what I just posted.
 
Quote from vergdb:

HFT2,

I joined this forum just to clear things for you.

I know you had been bullish and you are a patriot and there is nothing wrong with that, but don't meddle with the sentiments of the people because it is not doing you good. I'm posting this for your request for a rebuttal so please don't be rude on me even when I try to debunk your case.

1) You said that there is a positive GDP for the past quarters so there is no recession. My country has been showing a GDP of 6% every quarter of 07 and still the country feels no growth. you know why? Because GDP is not a good indicator of the economy. It measures the means of income of everybody and most of the time OUTLIERS exist. A country could have a positive GDP just because one person or company has doubled his income while many are still jobless. Try reading THE CONFESSIONS OF AN ECONOMIC HITMAN so you would understand more.

2) Economies are not just simply made by few people. It is the Society within the Economy dictates where the economy is going. Sentiments brings drastic downfalls or graces to economy. If the people want to spend and spend, the economy grows. If the people becomes afraid because they are already losing money, recession occurs. Refer to KEYNES' study for you to understand it better.

I hope you are now clarifies why the market is going down and next time before you look at economic data, go deeper on what it is trying to say
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Thank you for a civil discourse which is almost impossible with people here. Let me answer this best as I can.

1/ We have to have standard definition of recession in the US so people cannot declare their own recessions. Bureau of Economics defines recession as 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. GDP is the sum total output of all goods and services and has no references to individuals and that was not the purpose of it to be that way. The sum whole sum total of goods and services have to contract to negative numbers 6 months in row to even have a recession. This definition is laid out for a certain reason and has been around for last 40 years, so its not going to change anytime soon.

2/Sentiment is everything. The US consumer is a highly skeptical beast and a whimpering mouse. When the Lions roars he runs into his hole and whimpers endlessly. This US consumer is nobody but you and me. With all this negative sentiment and low confidence levels a recession is quite possible because they bring it upon themselves.

3/Look how badly they damaged our market's charts when we did not have a recession in sight! Yet they have to go back to these charts and drive an income again !
 
Quote from vergdb:

Wow. this forum is named Elite trader and the welcome I get is pretty rude. More like of a Elite Flamers has what this board became.
More...


These people are vicious animals. They have no class, they will try to intimidate you and discourage you from posting. Never given in to such tactics, but turn them around, and put the monkey of their backs and pull their chains till they die on the pavement.

These people will stop at nothing. They have taken good looking stock charts and mauled them in their utter hopelessness and delusions about an inevitable recession. They have shorted rallies and ran to the hills with nickles and dimes every Friday. They will stop at nothing but damaging American financial markets. That's is why Feds have a PRESIDENTS WORKING GROUP FOR FINANCIAL MARKETS- a sort of commando operation standing guard against such trouble makers and hooligans.
 
Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

These people are vicious animals. They have no class, they will try to intimidate you and discourage you from posting. Never given in to such tactics, but turn them around, and put the monkey of their backs and pull their chains till they die on the pavement.
More...

I noticed that. I hope this board will be more civilized as this is a good thread for those who want to invest. Thanks also for the civilized reply.
 
Quote from Sniemiec:

I'm still waiting for someone to post a MS Paint picture of the recession.
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3 straight months of NFP declines...
that's a recession...

The antiquated way of reporting a recession, the way your 1970 text books told you, is no longer valid...
 
Quote from PohPoh:

3 straight months of NFP declines...
that's a recession...

The antiquated way of reporting a recession, the way your 1970 text books told you, is no longer valid...
More...

Pohpohmyminitrading the time honored accepted definition is two negative GDP quarters. There hasn't been any. If anythign this is a slowdown, but not a recession.
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

Pohpohmyminitrading the time honored accepted definition is two negative GDP quarters. There hasn't been any. If anythign this is a slowdown, but not a recession.
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stockturdhedgefundday7793
who cares about time honored accepted definition, especially when GDP is adjusted for inflation numbers which are simply based on hedonic adjustments?
The GDP numbers are false because the CPI understates inflation...
So we need to look at something more concrete...like employment...

There was no recession in late 2000 according to the NESB's definitions, but wouldn't you have been prudent to have seen it coming?
 
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