Where is the recession? Show me ?

[Cocaine]

HedgefundTrader2,

Dont you find it odd that, in a long term down trend like you've admitted we are in, that all this fed action hasnt really moved the markets up like they had anticipated? Do you find this odd at all? Does this price action maybe reveal an underlying fear that may be justified?

Im not trying to be doom and gloom, Im just going on strict FACTS here. Markets been down for quite some time, FED takes action, markets not reacting as expected. All these are facts.
What do you make of it?

 

[trendlover]

Hedgefund2, you have strong feelings that negative sentiment is what keeps the market down only. You also sold/sell real estate and you know how lucrative that was for you when money was cheap and homes were high priced. And now it has come to an end. So maybe you believe if everyone could be convinced that there really is not big huge losses to be unwound, then everyone will buy again at inflated prices and all will be well. People are not stupid. Banks are blowing up, and those that don't blow up are writing down/off big losses. That is reality and not made up in the minds of cowardly people as you say.
Hedgefund, if you did not live on that hill with view of the city and nice countertops that you bought a long time ago and still holds its equtiy, but instead wanted to buy a house today, would you? Would you buy at a price that had a good possibility of dropping and not appreciating for many years?

 

[pcdunham]

Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

When you cannot prove a premise with your facts and figures like numbers and charts and various types of empirical data than it becomes apparent your premise that we are in a recession is essentially flawed ?

The mouse running to the hole when the Lion roared, YES?
Fear and emotions and negativity and delusions and a general lack of confidence is the real recession of the mind set.

Thank God we did not have a single negative quarterly GDP growth since 2002! I did my homework and stock trader 3 commented on it today.

I dont know what you would have done when faced with such a calamity ? That would have been the ultimate catastrophe? The Titanic hitting the iceberg.

Personal attacks? What do they achieve? Its a blatant display of weakness and lack of capabilities to counter a well defined hypothesis and a stronger logic.

huh? that doesn't even make sense.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from Cocaine:

HedgefundTrader2,

Dont you find it odd that, in a long term down trend like you've admitted we are in, that all this fed action hasnt really moved the markets up like they had anticipated? Do you find this odd at all? Does this price action maybe reveal an underlying fear that may be justified?

Im not trying to be doom and gloom, Im just going on strict FACTS here. Markets been down for quite some time, FED takes action, markets not reacting as expected. All these are facts.
What do you make of it?

To some extent you are correct. The markets are based on fear and greed we all know that. Despite all things said and done the fear has not subsided. For example Chinese stocks like BIDU, FXI, LFC. CHL have tanked. Those companies are not even located in this country and economy! China's economy is red hot shouldn't those stocks go higher? No because the purchaser and buyers of these ADRs are domiciled in this land gripped with doom and gloom.

We just have to see when people will find enough courage and fight their own demons and find fortitude and inner resourcefulness.

These are the same people who destroyed their real estate values and nearly led to the collapse of the banking systems. I can only hope these people will act irrationally and destroy whatever is left of their stock and equities markets. None of the charts on any equities are left undamaged, these charts are completely mauled and driven into the grounds. There is not much left to short either.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from trendlover:

Hedgefund2, you have strong feelings that negative sentiment is what keeps the market down only. You also sold/sell real estate and you know how lucrative that was for you when money was cheap and homes were high priced. And now it has come to an end. So maybe you believe if everyone could be convinced that there really is not big huge losses to be unwound, then everyone will buy again at inflated prices and all will be well. People are not stupid. Banks are blowing up, and those that don't blow up are writing down/off big losses. That is reality and not made up in the minds of cowardly people as you say.
Hedgefund, if you did not live on that hill with view of the city and nice countertops that you bought a long time ago and still holds its equtiy, but instead wanted to buy a house today, would you? Would you buy at a price that had a good possibility of dropping and not appreciating for many years?

Negative sentiment is the main culprit and lack of confidence. There are several reports that come out and Michigan report indicated that our confidence level has fallen to the lowest in 6 years. Fear. Fear to live your life fully and install a mode of fearful survival. It shows in the market place everyday, market rallies and immediate and vicious sell offs. End results lots of money sidelined and the markets just have no buyers and this down trend continues and there is not much left to pick. Traders are scalping and undoing each other for pennies.

I am not a retail buyer of real estate, so I am keeping an eye on deals that I can snag, and in the long run it will be fine. Keep in mind if you are going to live under your own roof with comforts and for next 5-10 years it doesn't matter when you buy. You are a long haul investor.

Real estate is the best wealth building tool. Those who think otherwise are fools. Most millionaires in this country found their way through real estate...

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from Cocaine:

HedgefundTrader2,

Dont you find it odd that, in a long term down trend like you've admitted we are in, that all this fed action hasnt really moved the markets up like they had anticipated? Do you find this odd at all? Does this price action maybe reveal an underlying fear that may be justified?

Im not trying to be doom and gloom, Im just going on strict FACTS here. Markets been down for quite some time, FED takes action, markets not reacting as expected. All these are facts.
What do you make of it?

Continuous fear drives buyers to the sidelines. There is lots of money parked on the sidelines. Todays action, very low volumes on SPY, NDX ..Now you can feed off each other shorting the hell out it. There is not much to go around.

 

[HolyGrail]

After seeing your logic and reasoning I am convinced that my charitable contributions to the Mental Health Foundation are being wasted.

 

[trendlover]

Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

Negative sentiment is the main culprit and lack of confidence. There are several reports that come out and Michigan report indicated that our confidence level has fallen to the lowest in 6 years. Fear. Fear to live your life fully and install a mode of fearful survival. It shows in the market place everyday, market rallies and immediate and vicious sell offs. End results lots of money sidelined and the markets just have no buyers and this down trend continues and there is not much left to pick. Traders are scalping and undoing each other for pennies.

I am not a retail buyer of real estate, so I am keeping an eye on deals that I can snag, and in the long run it will be fine. Keep in mind if you are going to live under your own roof with comforts and for next 5-10 years it doesn't matter when you buy. You are a long haul investor.

Real estate is the best wealth building tool. Those who think otherwise are fools. Most millionaires in this country found their way through real estate...

But it does matter when you buy even if you live there 5 to 10 years. Why would anyone buy something they could get maybe 50 or 60 thousand dollars cheaper if they wait a year or two? For the middle and lower income people that is a big difference in price...maybe not big deal for high income people, but big deal for others.

 

[Optional]

Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

Yes I agree with you on a Technical basis.

The market have long term down trend. Thanks to our negative sentiment and insecurities and lack of confidence. Markets are a confidence game and a lack of therefore pushes prices downwards.

Fear of recession has done more damage to the Technical picture of our financial markets than the recession would have. In other words the Lion hasn't roared yet.

Wow you are high.
So you think we should just be able to wish the mArket higher? That the market rises on positive thought? Isn't there like a book about that where you just hope and wish for something and it will come true? They give it to people in loonie nuns like where you should be. You are delusional.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from trendlover:

But it does matter when you buy even if you live there 5 to 10 years. Why would anyone buy something they could get maybe 50 or 60 thousand dollars cheaper if they wait a year or two? For the middle and lower income people that is a big difference in price...maybe not big deal for high income people, but big deal for others.

That is called negative speculation.

You are trying to predict future like a fortune teller while you missed the boat. You have become a speculator and we have seen how well you have done last two years living under your grandma's roof?

Just look at the last 2.5 years real estate prices are down 5-10% and the bubble never burst. With low rates and so many improvement in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and conventional loan limits increased there will be pent up demand that will come out soon.

People can only hold back so long and in every real estate cycle the dam bursts and buyers get to beat down sellers doors to set foot in the house and pay exorbitant prices and the markets go on fire..

Rewind the tape circa 2000-2003 what did you see?