Where is the recession? Show me ?

Quote from HolyGrail:

WTF does that mean?
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I place our long/ short trades where the markets have the lowest probability to trade and or stay out of the pre-defined range.

Do you know how IRON CONDORS work?
 
Disregarding whether we are in a recession or not, stocks are moving up. The indexes are not, but the bullish % index has risen from 16% to 36%. People are buying right now.
 
Thats fine, as daytraders you know we dont care which way things go. Hedgie here has been bullish since July 07...how has that been working out for him :)

I think Hedgie's gonna stop by 7 11 tonight for a slim jim and a big gulp cause thats all he can afford these days.

Quote from HolyGrail:

Disregarding whether we are in a recession or not, stocks are moving up. The indexes are not, but the bullish % index has risen from 16% to 36%. People are buying right now.
More...
 
Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

I place our long/ short trades where the markets have the lowest probability to trade and or stay out of the pre-defined range.

Do you know how IRON CONDORS work?
More...

Don't answer my question with a question.

You said you doin't care what that market does, you care WHERE it doesn't

Why is WHERE even in the equation?
 
Quote from HolyGrail:

Disregarding whether we are in a recession or not, stocks are moving up. The indexes are not, but the bullish % index has risen from 16% to 36%. People are buying right now.
More...

I would ordinarily be inclined to agree with you, HG, but if there really is structural deterioration of the consumer in the U.S., and I feel confident that there is (we know that psychology is hunker down, for sure), any money flowing into equities may be dead money for some time.

I can't see how stocks put on any significant return without stellar earning going forward, and a lot of margin calls have done technical damage.

The housing doom really is now taking a toll, and so is food/energy inflation and fear.

Just because bearish sentiment is high, and there is a lot of cash sidelined - both accounts I agree with you on - does not mean equity money won't be dead money for some time.

Also, bonds may be beautiful (especially munis) now because there's credible risk that dividend and long term capital gain tax treatment may be on the way out.
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

I would ordinarily be inclined to agree with you, HG, but if there really is structural deterioration of the consumer in the U.S., and I feel confident that there is (we know that psychology is hunker down, for sure), any money flowing into equities may be dead money for some time.

I can't see how stocks put on any significant return without stellar earning going forward, and a lot of margin calls have done technical damage.

The housing doom really is now taking a toll, and so is food/energy inflation and fear.

Just because bearish sentiment is high, and there is a lot of cash sidelined - both accounts I agree with you on - does not mean equity money won't be dead money for some time.

Also, bonds may be beautiful (especially munis) now because there's credible risk that dividend and long term capital gain tax treatment may be on the way out.
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Agreed. I am in no way saying that we are on our way to a new bull trend. I am only saying there is money to be made looking for longs in swing trading right now.

I'm sure we will see a lot of chop either way, but I personally do not believe we will retest the January lows this year unless we have some major unforseen event.
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

I think Amanda just owned Hedgie.

Amanda, I owe you a beer. I'm sure you could drink Hedgie under the table, too. :cool:
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Ha ha, I probably could back in my drinking days, now I stop being thirsty after the first bottle of wine.
 
Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

My question to this worldwide audience on ET stands:

Show me a single quarter of negative GDP growth in the US economy since 2002.

I have repeatedly thrown that challenge into the ring. Just step up and answer me. I dare you wouldn't.
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Fine, there's no recession and the market is going strong. You're right, and we're all wrong. Happy now? And how's your mortgage business going?
You're the poster child for denial and immaturity.
Grow up.
 
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