The Confessions of an Optimist
I thought things would be bad enough but they turned out
to be a lot worse. I thought a year ago we were looking at
the ââ¬Åfi rst truly global bubbleââ¬Â in asset prices. The credit
crisis looked to be so predictably powerful and unstoppable
then that I likened the experience to ââ¬Åwatching a slow
motion train wreck,ââ¬Â and I predicted that ââ¬Åone major bank
(broadly defi ned) will fail within 5 years,ââ¬Â for which I got
considerable grief as a doomsayer, as the less optimistic
strategists usually do. Well a year later one bank failure
looks positively quaint as a prediction. Ironically for a
ââ¬Åperma bear,ââ¬Â I underestimated in almost every way how
badly economic and fi nancial fundamentals would turn
out. Events must now be disturbing to everyone, and I for
one am offi cially scared!