Whats this recession about? Black Plague from Biblical Times?
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Where is the bear market?
- Thread starter stock_trad3r
- Start date
Whats this recession about? Black Plague from Biblical Times?
Quote from showyouwang:
the start of a bear market is always a precursor to an economic slowdsown. the market will start to correct before there is major evidence of a recession, simply because the market is reflection of the future - not today. it is the combined beliefs of everyone in the market.
WRONGO>
Markets have started moving up... precursor to balanced economic conditions. You can always see a glass half empty or half full. You ignore the facts those massive rate cuts are flooding the country with cash and a stable dollar getting stronger..
Quote from HedgefundTrader2:
WRONGO>
Markets have started moving up... precursor to balanced economic conditions. You can always see a glass half empty or half full. You ignore the facts those massive rate cuts are flooding the country with cash and a stable dollar getting stronger..
What fantasy world are you living in? The dollar hasn't gained much at all and the markets are still trending down.
Consumer confidence should scare the market on Monday.
Quote from MrDODGE:
What fantasy world are you living in? The dollar hasn't gained much at all and the markets are still trending down.
Consumer confidence should scare the market on Monday.
DJIA crossed 50 day moving average 3 times and closed above it. Negative sentiment is bullish for stocks. Yeah the per ma bears are waiting caution is required.
Quote from HedgefundTrader2:
Whats this recession about? Black Plague from Biblical Times?
You don't seem to be able to have a reasoned discussion. If you read my post prior to the one you quoted, you'll see my observations. You have not responded with anything other than hyperbole. I'm done.
Quote from paysense:
What stands in defense for Stck_Trd3r is what may now portend as a "shift" in the general market's trend.
Although much of today's vastly higher volume was caused by options and futures expiration, we may have a "follow-through" as defined by William O'Neil and IBD.
Perhaps managers have now begun "shifting" gains from commodities and commodity-related stocks back into what will become the "new market leaders".
In coming weeks, fundamentally sound companies and industries likely may forge themselves to the front for substantial gains as institutions put large amounts of cash back to work.
Yes, the market may be now seeing an end to the downcycle - some 6 months or more ahead (not that more bad news won't continue to unfold).
Truth be told, the majority of retail investors are currently scared senseless and will not be able to capitalize on a powerful new uptrend.
Best to all,
paYsen$E
Yeah, sure, the market sentiment changes on an hourly basis, check out the videos on Bloomberg, one day all bullish and next day all bearish. The markets will not go down in a straight line, there will be rallies, just how many of these rallies did we have from 2000 to 2003 when the markets did finally turn around, about 50 I will say, so keep expecting these. JMHO...
Quote from riaamaan:
It's not fear, it's observation and deduction. I don't fear a recession, I welcome it because it's quite necessary and normal in a free market. When I evaluate the general conditions, I see a $10 trillion deficit, foolish monetary policy and the most massive of entitlements to ever have knocked on the door coming due as the boomers retire.
I see once high paying jobs exported. I see for sale signs on homes in my neighborhood that have been there for over a year while the owners have moved and left the keys with the bank. The onetime tech powerhouses all about me are shells of their former selves and employing a fraction of the people they once did.
Additionally, the cost of oil when compared to economic cycles suggests a recession. We boom when it's relatively cheap, not when it's $100 bbl.
We've had a nice 5 year bull run and it would be normal for an extended recession to reset the foundations.
well said, and I think that we would not have had these 5 good years if it were not for the ultra low rates, rates at 1% was just rediculous, its not too hard to spur the economy in the short run by these low rates, people buy homes, the prices keep going up, they dip in their home equity, and buy that SUV and everyone goes for a vacation to Bahamas, but guess what now is the time to clean up the act. Those Greenspan tactics have hurt us long term and now is that long term pay back time. Sure, if the oil could go back to $30 and every Central bank again starts buying dollar, sure, we can replace that SUV, but that aint happening this time around...
Quote from HedgefundTrader2:
I am the guy who wrote those sub prime loans and CDOs that have now gone bad. I am the person who did those deals and let me tell you there was nothing wrong with those mortgage backed securities and tranches packaged at the time. Mortgages are a highly regulated industry with laws coming out your zzo0o zzos!
When the US consumer / gambler/ speculator started speculating that he can get a better deal and buy real estate on the cheap and stopped in its track the whole cycle fell apart. After 2 years on non activity the bench mark of those MBS and CDOs went sour because valuations dropped for one simple reason lack of real estate activity. When that happened, everyone stopped trading that paper at a discount, people selling at 90% -95% of value taking a 10- 5% haircut! Than it got so bad that no one would trade that paper and the liquidity crisis hit hard. Bear and Stearns swallowed a lot of mortgage companies and they too were swallowed by a bigger fish... its that sort of game ..
The main culprit is the cowardly US consumer that is still gambling and speculating on real estate and now he is out of the game since the rules have changed on this cowardly fool.
Are you saying people where not approved for morgages that were beyond their means? Are you saying lenders checked and balanced the ratio of the loan to the income of people getting those loans? Hedgefund2, it seems a free for all was happening on the part of lenders and buyers. Some lenders put their head in the sand and made liars loans...their objective was to close the deal...period. And some consumers exploited cheap money. Maybe you did not write these kinds of loans, but you cannot say it didn't happen. And it has snowballed as the ball was passed around.
Now the balance sheets are not showing money that was suppose to be. Fed gives money to help out. And maybe its in the best interest of some banks to take over others because they are the bondholders. No doom and gloom, just looking at the picture.
Quote from trendlover:
Are you saying people where not approved for morgages that were beyond their means? Are you saying lenders checked and balanced the ratio of the loan to the income of people getting those loans? Hedgefund2, it seems a free for all was happening on the part of lenders and buyers. Some lenders put their head in the sand and made liars loans...their objective was to close the deal...period. And some consumers exploited cheap money. Maybe you did not write these kinds of loans, but you cannot say it didn't happen. And it has snowballed as the ball was passed around.
Now the balance sheets are not showing money that was suppose to be. Fed gives money to help out. And maybe its in the best interest of some banks to take over others because they are the bondholders. No doom and gloom, just looking at the picture.
Getting a home loan was never easy. Valuations were great hence lots of liquidity and available credit at the time.
The loans were made according to program guidelines and underwritten accordingly. The property valuations were great hence lenders had no problem.
The problem started when US consumers stopped buying real estate and the same valuations decreased. Now all of a sudden lenders are blamed and the finger pointing starts.
Still the main culprit is sitting on the fence and unless he starts buying nothing is going to work.