Where is the bear market?

[increasenow]

Wall Street Journal had an article saying "beware on the double bottom"...as noted, Deustche Bank said commodities going down in April as did article on www.INO.com ...heres the deal...will be more massive hedge fund selling off in commodities this week and for the upcoming weeks which also send the retail commodity investor into panic sell off mode...prices of Gold will much lower, Oil will be much lower, Euro will sell off...10YR will sold off and the DOW/SP will be in total rebound mode coming through earnings and next FEd mtg with NO rate cut...thus signally US economy 'stabilizing' as they say...I honestly believe...we have seen the TOPS for Gold, Oil, Euro...market will head higher..ALSO...THE DOW JUST CLOSED OVER ITS 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE...THIS IS A HUGE BULLISH INDICATOR FOR THE DOW...!!!....
**COMEX Gold $1,033.00 on March 16th...NEVER to be seen again!
**NYMEX Crude Oil $111.80 on March 17th...NEVER to be seen again!
**CME Globex Euro 1.5820 on March 17th...NEVER to be seen again!
**Dollar Index 70.69 on March 17th...NEVER to be seen again!
**CME Globex 10 Year Note 120.01 on March 17th...NEVER to be seen again!
**DOW 11,000 to NEVER be seen again!
**SP 500 1,200 to NEVER be seen again!
...I welcome any expert to prove this wrong...the BUBBLE has burst...for Gold, Oil, Euro, 10 Year Note...

 

[Brandonf]

Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

I agree, I traded with the UPTICK rule and had no problem.

I believe the UPTICK rule was abolished for Hedge Funds.

From all that has happen in the last 4 months, I do not believe we will enter a Bear Market this year. I believe the markets are down something like 11% from the highs.

The BEAR has been caged for now.

I would not doubt a huge BULL RUN and a crash to follow.

But that would only be the "BULL" taking out the all time highs.

You never know what the "powers" that be, will have this market do.

We are not in a BEAR at this moment and the FED stop't the BEAR dead in its tracks.

All this bitching and whining about the uptick rule is just bullshit and bitching on the part of people who are pissed off about losing money. The commodities markets, which are possibly even more important than equities, have never ever had an uptick rule and they have functioned just fine in spite of this.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from trendlover:

Hedfund2, I think its the opposite of what you say. You say becasue the consumer stopped buying real estate is the reason why the real estate and bankind industry is collapsing. But its really becasue the consumer bought tons of real estate they couldn't afford (and defaulted on) All the interest on those loans was suppose to be profit. Those banks sold off their debt, took their profit on the sale of those bad loans they made and had not a worry in the world about if those debts would pay out waht they were suppose to be worth. Now some banks that bought those loans whos value is based on the INTEREST are not seeing any of it. These banks think they have more money than they really do. Now the forclosures are record high and banks have to sell them to get SOME of their money back..but they sell cheaper..and that brings home prices down all around.
No one really knows how big the loss is yet. That is real, not imaginary.

I am the guy who wrote those sub prime loans and CDOs that have now gone bad. I am the person who did those deals and let me tell you there was nothing wrong with those mortgage backed securities and tranches packaged at the time. Mortgages are a highly regulated industry with laws coming out your zzo0o zzos!

When the US consumer / gambler/ speculator started speculating that he can get a better deal and buy real estate on the cheap and stopped in its track the whole cycle fell apart. After 2 years on non activity the bench mark of those MBS and CDOs went sour because valuations dropped for one simple reason lack of real estate activity. When that happened, everyone stopped trading that paper at a discount, people selling at 90% -95% of value taking a 10- 5% haircut! Than it got so bad that no one would trade that paper and the liquidity crisis hit hard. Bear and Stearns swallowed a lot of mortgage companies and they too were swallowed by a bigger fish... its that sort of game ..

The main culprit is the cowardly US consumer that is still gambling and speculating on real estate and now he is out of the game since the rules have changed on this cowardly fool.

 

[riaamaan]

Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

These ' IMAGINARY' recession has never been proven with fact and figures. I have repeatedly challenged people to prove it to me. All they prove is their FEARS and self defeating behaviors. The market losses are a result of this negative sentiment, perpetual doom and gloom when none of it as bad as it seems. None.

Recessions typically begin before the evidence is visible. I picked this tidbit up from Jesse Livermore. Are you a better trader than Livermore? Do you have the capacity to learn from the wisdom of others who've succeeded beyond your wildest dreams? The dominoes are set up and they are beginning to fall.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from frank grimes:

day (you do not trade for a hedge fund) 7793...you are on tilt. I pretty much have you on ignore, but then you quote me and your response was lacking in substance, and well pretty much everything. You own the crown for the best turd i've ever had to endure (non tapered variety).. the "little credit problem" is due to the media or shortsellers? I say bring back the uptick rule, a good trader never has a problem shorting a stock, I welcome it. When they bring it back, I will still be short what I want to be and make money...The only property you own is the treehouse behind your parent's house...happy trading ( for those of us that actually do). Being Easter weekend, i'll be nice and say....For the love of Pete, please stop posting here, it's just to damn easy....Maholo!

Frank Grimes

I am sitting on my hilltop mini mansion overlooking a deep dark canyon on a Sunday morning cause I was tired of running around all day. I can see a panorama of city lights flickering away... wish you have bought real estate when it was time... and didnot have to wash your clothes with other losers at the laundromat.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from riaamaan:

Recessions typically begin before the evidence is visible. I picked this tidbit up from Jesse Livermore. Are you a better trader than Livermore? Do you have the capacity to learn from the wisdom of others who've succeeded beyond your wildest dreams? The dominoes are set up and they are beginning to fall.

Do you want to be a paranoid schizophrenic?

You have done more damage to your psychology than a real recession would have done. When you fear, you create fear and trading with fear is a losers game. Look where the markets are with this " imaginary recession " running in the background for nothing but as ever present paranoid delusion.

When I go to the markets I have no fear.

 

[HedgefundTrader2]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

Where is the recession?

Where is the credit crunch?

Where is the liquidity crisis?

Please help me find it.



Visa stock up so much....

IMAGINARY RECESSION - is full blown and finding lot of support among the cowards and depressed of this nation.

When you ask them to prove that we are in a recession - they stop right in their tracks, as a deer that sees headlights.

 

[riaamaan]

Quote from HedgefundTrader2:

Do you want to be a paranoid schizophrenic?

You have done more damage to your psychology than a real recession would have done. When you fear, you create fear and trading with fear is a losers game. Look where the markets are with this " imaginary recession " running in the background for nothing but as ever present paranoid delusion.

When I go to the markets I have no fear.

It's not fear, it's observation and deduction. I don't fear a recession, I welcome it because it's quite necessary and normal in a free market. When I evaluate the general conditions, I see a $10 trillion deficit, foolish monetary policy and the most massive of entitlements to ever have knocked on the door coming due as the boomers retire.

I see once high paying jobs exported. I see for sale signs on homes in my neighborhood that have been there for over a year while the owners have moved and left the keys with the bank. The onetime tech powerhouses all about me are shells of their former selves and employing a fraction of the people they once did.

Additionally, the cost of oil when compared to economic cycles suggests a recession. We boom when it's relatively cheap, not when it's $100 bbl.

We've had a nice 5 year bull run and it would be normal for an extended recession to reset the foundations.

 

[showyouwang]

Quote from riaamaan:

Recessions typically begin before the evidence is visible. I picked this tidbit up from Jesse Livermore. Are you a better trader than Livermore? Do you have the capacity to learn from the wisdom of others who've succeeded beyond your wildest dreams? The dominoes are set up and they are beginning to fall.

the start of a bear market is always a precursor to an economic slowdsown. the market will start to correct before there is major evidence of a recession, simply because the market is reflection of the future - not today. it is the combined beliefs of everyone in the market.

 

[riaamaan]

Quote from showyouwang:

the start of a bear market is always a precursor to an economic slowdsown. the market will start to correct before there is major evidence of a recession, simply because the market is reflection of the future - not today. it is the combined beliefs of everyone in the market.

I concur. That is the reason I don't think you can say we are in a recession based strictly on the market performance recently. A recession isn't declared until after the fact. And if we go into a recession, the beginning will look like what the charts show today.

It's the correct evaluation of general conditions that gives great traders an edge through accurate anticipation of what is most likely to happen. This is how Livermore was positioned to reap a king's fortune on the 1929 crash.