Where I'm at

[Real Money]

Sure start putting some of those averages, bollinger's, crossovers, whatever on the BoB spread, NoB spread, or outright rate futures.

3x gold and 3x bonds

You went long bonds (short equities) at the all time low in yields in SEP 2019?

Look at this chart of ZN.

Sure if the economy is going into recession it should push rates lower, but they were already at all time lows. Something is wrong with how you are applying technical analysis or how you are reading price action.

Basically, you went against TA and PA (and FA) if you 3X longed bonds and gold in SEP.

With all due respect, you bought the top.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Sure start putting some of those averages, bollinger's, crossovers, whatever on the BoB spread, NoB spread, or outright rate futures.

You went long bonds (short equities) at the all time low in yields in SEP 2019?

Look at this chart of ZN.
View attachment 215779

Sure if the economy is going into recession it should push rates lower, but they were already at all time lows. Something is wrong with how you are applying technical analysis or how you are reading price action.

Basically, you went against TA and PA (and FA) if you 3X longed bonds and gold in SEP.

With all due respect, you bought the top.

I didn't use technical analysis at all.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Sure start putting some of those averages, bollinger's, crossovers, whatever on the BoB spread, NoB spread, or outright rate futures.

You went long bonds (short equities) at the all time low in yields in SEP 2019?

Look at this chart of ZN.
View attachment 215779

Sure if the economy is going into recession it should push rates lower, but they were already at all time lows. Something is wrong with how you are applying technical analysis or how you are reading price action.

Basically, you went against TA and PA (and FA) if you 3X longed bonds and gold in SEP.

With all due respect, you bought the top.

Here's a brain teaser for you...

Back in September, bonds, gold, and stocks were all at all-time highs. (Okay stocks were slightly off, but the point remains valid). Where did all the money come from? Was there something out there that was losing value?

Also, if those safe haven investments (bonds and gold) reached all-time highs based on speculative fervor, don't you think they could surpass that if bad economic data starts to be released?

Where would gold and bonds be if the unemployment rate rises to 5% or higher? Or if large corporations start defaulting on loans?

I've already sold the bonds cause I needed the cash, but I still have the gold.

This was not meant to be a trade. I would call it holding a position. But more important things called, and I needed the cash.

 

[Real Money]

Back in September, bonds, gold, and stocks were all at all-time highs. (Okay stocks were slightly off, but the point remains valid). Where did all the money come from? Was there something out there that was losing value?

Sure, equities had sold off three times from the highs, emerging markets had gone bearish, ECB was printing like mad (negative yields on bunds) and the dollar index was rallying.

This means a rotation of funds back into the US, robust FX flows, and bullish fundamentals for bond markets. All the deal talk coming out of the news and from trump's twitter was spooking the bulls and keeping equities off new highs. FED was cutting rates.

Gold took over 6 years to get to 1580 per troy ounce and you went long when it did.

If you weren't trading off technicals then what were you using? You were bearish equities or what? Why did you think it was time to play risk off?

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Sure, equities had sold off three times from the highs, emerging markets had gone bearish, ECB was printing like mad (negative yields on bunds) and the dollar index was rallying.

This means a rotation of funds back into the US, robust FX flows, and bullish fundamentals for bond markets. All the deal talk coming out of the news and from trump's twitter was spooking the bulls and keeping equities off new highs. FED was cutting rates.

Gold took over 6 years to get to 1580 per troy ounce and you went long when it did.

If you weren't trading off technicals then what were you using? You were bearish equities or what? Why did you think it was time to play risk off?

It was the first time I ever had an amount of cash in a checking account that would be worth investing. I looked at what I thought was going on in the economy (and what many others agreed with at the time), and I bought things that would do well if the economy went down.

I looked at the inverted yield curve, the Fed had just cut rates for the first time since the recession a month prior and was expected to cut again, and business investment (especially residential fixed investment) had been slowing or even declining. For all I know, a recession could still happen before 2021 and I could be correct all along.

But I did learn to never bet against the economy because even if I guess correctly, I'm missing out on a lot on the way up. No one likes recessions. Everyone likes expansions. We have almost 8 billion people wanting the economy to succeed. It won't stay down for long.

When you say that equities sold off, what are you looking at? I look at the Wilshire 5000 that I see has a top on July 26th. But I still think it's just voodoo trying to draw trend lines on things that are obviously driven by fundamentals. At least on any longer-term scale.

 

[Real Money]

When you say that equities sold off, what are you looking at?

I meant that the market pulled back from its previous highs three times.

The market is designed to take money from low yield low risk assets and bring it to high yield higher risk assets in order to fund economic activity (as long as economic activity has good prospects).

So, you should get flat/short when you think there will be a reversal of this trend.

Shorting stocks is risky since the risk free rate is lower than the short borrowing rate.

Trading risk off is for intraday traders. It's a volatile trade because it's a crowded trade. It's crazy to just buy a risk off basket even if you are bearish on economic growth.

As for gold, banks lease it to counter-parties to generate income. Commercials acquire the physical for their businesses and use futures to hedge. It is very difficult for it to rally significantly because there is so much open interest across market participants (they are waiting for vol to re position their book). Also, there are lots of groups that are trading the metals ratios (also waiting for vol).

This is my opinion, but there is more short interest in gold than long. Think about it, futures are a hedge for physical producers and holders of the metal. The guys who are lending gold are the same guys that have vaults of it. It's not really my cup of tea.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

I meant that the market pulled back from its previous highs three times.

The market is designed to take money from low yield low risk assets and bring it to high yield higher risk assets in order to fund economic activity (as long as economic activity has good prospects).

So, you should get flat/short when you think there will be a reversal of this trend.

Shorting stocks is risky since the risk free rate is lower than the short borrowing rate.

Trading risk off is for intraday traders. It's a volatile trade because it's a crowded trade. It's crazy to just buy a risk off basket even if you are bearish on economic growth.

As for gold, banks lease it to counter-parties to generate income. Commercials acquire the physical for their businesses and use futures to hedge. It is very difficult for it to rally significantly because there is so much open interest across market participants (they are waiting for vol to re position their book). Also, there are lots of groups that are trading the metals ratios (also waiting for vol).

This is my opinion, but there is more short interest in gold than long. Think about it, futures are a hedge for physical producers and holders of the metal. The guys who are lending gold are the same guys that have vaults of it. It's not really my cup of tea.

Well I wouldn't make such a trade again.

I just thought at the time... What's the worst that could happen? I guess I found out.

Although I did make back about $9,000 in gold the past 2 days. Still down 23% since the purchase, though.

 

[ironchef]

I work way harder than you do.

And I don't mean staring at charts or sitting at a computer.

I have repeatedly said I would back test anything that seems reasonable. Can't promise I'll do that right away because I have other obligations that are more important.

Part of me has already come to the conclusion that I should just not do this. And stick to/expand/improve what I'm already doing.

Don't be surprised we full time traders work as hard if not harder.

Besides, don't jus work hard, you need to also work smart to be a successful trader. Work smart doesn't mean keep asking us what you should backtest. Ask why the parameters you thought should work, yet when you backtested them, didn't work.

Wish you a happy and profitable new year.

 

[murray t turtle]

So what's a good combination of indicators?

What's your personal favorites?

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WELL, they dont pay a lot of attention to 200 day moving average in ES+ they dont pay dividends- maybe that's why i never did profit off that,, like i did stock ETFs. LIKE Alan Farleys Swing Trader book noted= ''BEARS live below 200dma; Bulls live above 200dma''

QQQ> SPY,VOO..........===== all those are above 200 dma...........................................................................................................................So much noise on daily charts; some use weekly , monthly +quarterly barcharts, prefer red + blue or red + green candles myself [some u$e all].Good question ; wisdom is profitable to direct