Interesting that video was recorded on 9/29/2018. Right at the previous top. Wonder how the system did in the following months. Probably did well from the start of this year. Works best in trending markets. I suspect it loses a lot of money on choppy markets.
Where I'm at
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
- Start date
Interesting that video was recorded on 9/29/2018. Right at the previous top. Wonder how the system did in the following months. Probably did well from the start of this year. Works best in trending markets. I suspect it loses a lot of money on choppy markets.
Does he say in their exactly what the system is? I know it says it linear regression but if I wanted to duplicate the system would I be able to do it based on the information provided?
Since I am not looking to watch charts everyday I think it only makes sense for me to bet that the market will go up seeing as that's what happens 95% of the time anyway. I recently mentioned a losing trade I made when betting against the market. I believe it is foolish for me to bet against the market because it rarely ever happens that the markets go down.
It's basically a trend following system. The advantage of linear regression is perhaps less lag than a MA. I only listened to the video while looking at charts, didn't watch it carefully.
If you are young, buy and hold might be the best approach especially if you live in a high tax state. That said, more people will agree with your previous statement during times like now, exactly 20 years ago today, and at the end of 2007. The least amount of people would agree on March 9, 2009. Markets condition people.
I just had a look at your video. I didn't spend enough time to try and figure out what rules he was applying to determine his turning points. Nevertheless, I wouldn't complicate your mimicking this approach with "mathematics", you could basically just draw those channels on the chart. What you need to decide is what rules form your channel and what rules indicate a change in direction.
Using a daily chart which is volatile and trying to pick swings like he is based on some fixed rules is unlikely to work over time as markets change. I doubt what he is showing is profitable beyond short periods like he has shown, but not a bad place to start playing with systems to understand how stocks behave and how difficult your work to make this consistently profitable will be.
Again the approach shown would likely be better on a bigger timescale of weekly charts (less volatile) and better by discretionary analysis of market turns against a range of criteria rather than a fixed regression rule that won't change as the market phase changes.
If it was as easy as he is suggesting with some very basic rules to determine swings then everyone beyond a basic understanding of share markets would be creaming off easy profits. It doesn't work that way. But give it a go!
But there's nothing saying that his system is simple.
For all I know, it could be based on multiple indicators, which themselves each involve complex mathematics.
Imagine how time consuming it would be to calculate even a simple moving average without the help of computers.
He wants you to do the work and report your results back to him.
He wants you to do the work and report your results back to him.
I work way harder than you do.
And I don't mean staring at charts or sitting at a computer.
I have repeatedly said I would back test anything that seems reasonable. Can't promise I'll do that right away because I have other obligations that are more important.
Part of me has already come to the conclusion that I should just not do this. And stick to/expand/improve what I'm already doing.
Hi John, I think you should familiarize yourself with the bond market. Rate futures track the value of bonds and are used to hedge price risk. This market trades inversely (against) the stock market. It is large, and many, many traders and trading groups are trading these products.
If you can get a read on the index (price action, technicals), then you can trade rate futures using it.
The reasons to trade these are obvious, more liquid, more volatile, less exchange fees, among others. Good reads on bonds can inform your trading of indexes as well.
P.S. As a hedge against price (rate) risk, these instruments are used to trade the difference of rates as well. Selling bonds and buying notes (for example) suppresses the volatility of your P/L and therefore attracts traders looking to lever up.
I'm already familiar with how bonds work.
Is trying to technically analyze this any different from anything else?