I have lost a lot of money since September with 3x leveraged funds.
Where I'm at
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
- Start date
I have lost a lot of money since September with 3x leveraged funds.
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Make sure to print out those charts..................................................
Make sure to print out those charts..................................................
You've missed bunches.
• Trading the e-mini futures is essentially an index of the commodity or the formally-declared index on which the future contract is based. I.E., trading the ES is trading the S&P500.
• The only indicators that ever get 'miss-matched' are those with a volume content (e.g., the MFI) -- If you trade based on the SPX, you have no (valid) volume; if you trade the ES, you have ES volume at your disposal.
• "the right combination of indicators" is an entirely meaningless term -- backtesting can be done on any individual indicator, and on any combination. But what is right to *use* in 1999 may not be right to use in 2019: you need to pick that subset of indicators that works *going*forward*, NOT the set that (might have) worked twenty years ago.
• One of the great grotesqueries of Technical Analysis is the concept of "confirmation" -- THERE IS NO SUCH THING. Having four or five flawed indicators make the same flawed indication does not get you any closer to making money -- it adds ZERO empirical truth to have multi-collinear gadgets crowding your screen.
So whatta ya do?
Sit down with the calculations, find one T/A tool for each of the following:
• market volatility
• trend
• price oscillation (-1.0 -- 0 -- +1.0)
As you're evaluating everything, remember that there are two things that make up a transaction: price, and volume. That's IT. All else is re-work of those. When you can explain the output of any indicator you find interesting to any 12-year-old, you're ALMOST there. (What does a MACD reading of 24 mean? If your RSI reads "86.2" -- 86.2 of what?!?)
When you find one whose logic you can explain, then TUNE the damn thing to match the data on the price graph, such that you minimize noise. If you can't get it to beat a 50|50 coin flip, toss the T/A tool and use the coin instead.
Test, test, and RE-test -- every day, every week, every month and quarter, to see if the tunings you happen to be using are still in jibe with the market. ALWAYS.
Thus, remove it, 100% out of your trades, just cut it off.
I'm gonna wait and see if gold goes back up. I sold the rest.
Two flawed assumptions in your post:
- that Technical Indicators have any value at all
- that looking at daily charts is the best basis for your analysis.
You won't understand that at this point and will do what you are going to do. But after enough work has been done in the months and years to come and you're still failing, eventually you should revist those basic assumptions.
Classic charting techniques and monthly and weekly chart analysis are the better direction, especially for your low time demands after hours analysis only.
If you're looking to swing-trade, then equities trend better than most markets.
Moving averages work pretty good for trending markets.
Zoom out so your emotions aren't up/down based on every candle change.
Create a few rules based upon the MAs.
Example: Ribbon above MA = LONG only. Ribbon below MA = SHORT only. Price must be above/below ribbon.
Moving averages work pretty good for trending markets.
Zoom out so your emotions aren't up/down based on every candle change.
Create a few rules based upon the MAs.
Example: Ribbon above MA = LONG only. Ribbon below MA = SHORT only. Price must be above/below ribbon.
What are your results?
If technical indicators have no value, then there is no point in me being here.
However, I've already seen some successful people say that they do.