the speculation around the moves in monetary policy seems to be something the fed wants out there to keep that the center of focus but behind closed doors, is there really any chance of tapering of qe3? I can refer to an article I read a while back with opinions from Carl Riccadonna, UBS' Drew Matus, Morgan Stanley's Vincent Reinhart, Uri Aboutboul and Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs .
The article seems to give the perspective of these fund managers / investment banking managers regarding the big then unfounded concern over the QE tapering. So many economics and traders say the fundamentals wouldn't allow for it without serious deflation. Do you guys really think the FED is going to taper on this stuff? Here's some opinions put out back in June before Bernanke addressed the public. This was the time the talk of them reducing the amount of QE was showing in the market. It seems to me that these guys Carl Riccadonna & Uri Aboutboul, have fair statements:
Deutsche Bank's Carl Riccadonna: "We do not expect Mr. Bernanke to yet show confidence that the time to taper QE is near, but the most important aspect of his media Q&A will be whether he signals that an H2 taper remains plausible. Of course, he could go one step further by signaling if it was likely given the Fed's updated economic projections, but we expect he will refrain from being so explicit given lingering uncertainty over the near-term economic outlook."
NYU High Frequency Trading Expert Uri Aboutboul: "Despite consensus opinion, there has yet to be any material evidence supporting the concerns of possible reduction of monthly QE expenditures. The program seems to be a permanent aspect of the bank's monetary policy. To be blunt, if the Fed were to stop its quantitive easing program short of a rise in real mutually-consented interest rates, major deflationary pressures, which have been around since the housing crises, will manifest their way into markets. That does not seem to be a risk the current administration is willing to take. Chairman Bernanke has no other options but to maintain the current policies."
The housing market, stock market, etc play so much into this that it seems like QE is the new norm. Is there really a good chance the fed is gonna slow down the amount? cause it seems to me the banks would be hurting without the QE.
I guess my main question is if Bernanke's plan is to keep pumping QE into the economy and then when he steps down say "I did all I could. While I was chairman, what I did created growth in every quantifiable way and anything going on now is the new management"? I mean this shit looks like it could get ugly.
The article seems to give the perspective of these fund managers / investment banking managers regarding the big then unfounded concern over the QE tapering. So many economics and traders say the fundamentals wouldn't allow for it without serious deflation. Do you guys really think the FED is going to taper on this stuff? Here's some opinions put out back in June before Bernanke addressed the public. This was the time the talk of them reducing the amount of QE was showing in the market. It seems to me that these guys Carl Riccadonna & Uri Aboutboul, have fair statements:
Deutsche Bank's Carl Riccadonna: "We do not expect Mr. Bernanke to yet show confidence that the time to taper QE is near, but the most important aspect of his media Q&A will be whether he signals that an H2 taper remains plausible. Of course, he could go one step further by signaling if it was likely given the Fed's updated economic projections, but we expect he will refrain from being so explicit given lingering uncertainty over the near-term economic outlook."
NYU High Frequency Trading Expert Uri Aboutboul: "Despite consensus opinion, there has yet to be any material evidence supporting the concerns of possible reduction of monthly QE expenditures. The program seems to be a permanent aspect of the bank's monetary policy. To be blunt, if the Fed were to stop its quantitive easing program short of a rise in real mutually-consented interest rates, major deflationary pressures, which have been around since the housing crises, will manifest their way into markets. That does not seem to be a risk the current administration is willing to take. Chairman Bernanke has no other options but to maintain the current policies."
The housing market, stock market, etc play so much into this that it seems like QE is the new norm. Is there really a good chance the fed is gonna slow down the amount? cause it seems to me the banks would be hurting without the QE.
I guess my main question is if Bernanke's plan is to keep pumping QE into the economy and then when he steps down say "I did all I could. While I was chairman, what I did created growth in every quantifiable way and anything going on now is the new management"? I mean this shit looks like it could get ugly.
