Where Does Everybody Think The Market Is Headed This Year?

I have a study about how much the S&P usually goes ( percentage-wise) before a big correction. I don't have the figures right here with me but I don't think we are there yet.
 
I'm bullish in the short term seeing as many of the 2019 concerns are subsiding and election talks haven't heated up yet. Trade war progressing positively, brexit not really a thing anymore, bond yields increasing and fed pumping liquidity into the repo market. Kinda hard for me to justify getting bearish in the next couple months. Only twitter will tell...
 

at 1:30 it shows the fund flows... if the market went up this much in 2019, while the fund flow was negative, that tells you one thing - the smart money was buying and couldn't get enough of it.

now you tell me where 2020 is going.
 
tommcginnis said:
To be clear, absence of a unified-majority government is bullish for the stock market -- party does not matter.
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that maybe true evidenced by 2019... but what do the dems have to offer as tail wind to the economy... mueller shit show followed by the impeachment shit show... nothing but dead weight.

a lot more got done in the 2017 and 2018 when the GOP had both chambers... and the monumental tax cut probably would have been in question if Pelosi had the house.
 
Laissez Faire said:
As posted in another part of the forum (slightly modified by year end):

S&P closed 2019 at 3230,78 - yielding a 28,88 % gain on the year.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 have been up more than 25 % on the year 13 times not counting 2019. The last time in recent years was 2013 with a gain of 29,60 %.

Due to the current nominal pricing of the index, 2019 was also the largest yearly range in the S&P 500 ever at 803,97 points from high to low!

Remarkably, the average yearly gain following such a year is 11,25 % with only 2/13 years closing negative.

Let’s narrow it down further and look at years where…

1) The year gain was greater than 25 %

2) S&P opened at the bottom of the range and closed at the top

3) S&P made and closed at all time highs

This have happened 10 times since 1950 with 2019 being the 11th time.

For the following years we had an average yearly gain of 12,79 % with 9/10 years closing positively and a remarkable 10/10 years making all time highs.

While I and everyone else may feel this market is nuts and feel it's 'time' we sell off, these numbers seems very bullish to me. While this analysis simplistic and purely technical while neglecting several other factors and uncertainties moving in to 2020, I think they're very interesting still.

I could add some more detail regarding all of the years in the sample making new all time highs:

The minimum upside gain (looking at the single year with a negative close) was 4,63 %. The mean was 16,49 %. The largest was 28,99 %.

Extrapolating from those numbers then we could see a high reading by 2020 of

a) Minimum 3380

b) A mean expectation of 3763

c) A maximum of 4167.

Finally, assuming a modest 10% yearly gain in 2020 - we should see a close at 3554 on the S&P 500.

Predicting a year ahead seems foolish to me, but it's interesting to me to see how the technicals seems to be very bullish following a year like 2019.
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The day you post a trade we’ll be flying in hover cars.

Market closes at ATHs and 10/10 NHs the following year. Now THAT is some prescience!
 
tommcginnis said:
To be clear, absence of a unified-majority government is bullish for the stock market -- party does not matter.
More...


Sorry, I find it hard to believe that election of a socialist carrying a Democrat membership card will be bullish for the Dow.
 
destriero said:
The day you post a trade we’ll be flying in hover cars.

Market closes at ATHs and 10/10 NHs the following year. Now THAT is some prescience!
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I certainly hope he posts a real trade soon, because I want flying cars, DAMN IT!


I do not want to die before we have flying cars!
 
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