I'd let you make out with my wife for that comment.
Where did the bear market go?
- Thread starter Genevian Speculator
- Start date
So far all responses are heavily bearish or neutral/agnostic.
Seems to me that any bearish view needs one key ingredient to pay off, which is another wave of unexpected bad news to crush stocks to new lows (more than a brief probe below the March lows). So what will be the bad news? A historic crash in earnings and employment is already priced in, as is a peak of roughly April 15 for new cases.
So, new lows will more than likely need either the epidemic and restrictions to last significantly longer than expected, and/or for us to get to late June with the economic news and outlook failing to improve.
Seems to me that any bearish view needs one key ingredient to pay off, which is another wave of unexpected bad news to crush stocks to new lows (more than a brief probe below the March lows). So what will be the bad news? A historic crash in earnings and employment is already priced in, as is a peak of roughly April 15 for new cases.
So, new lows will more than likely need either the epidemic and restrictions to last significantly longer than expected, and/or for us to get to late June with the economic news and outlook failing to improve.
600 dead today....how will 1000 dead strike the market?
The bears caved in and gave up... Bulls are awakening now.... Get lost, bears!
Having the market go up seems to be the ultimate given?
The thing is that model projections of the epidemic's course are now widely known and therefore priced in. Italy's daily new cases probably peaked on Friday, with deaths to peak on Wednesday give or take a day, then Spain will follow a week later. Over the next two weeks markets will see clear light at the end of the tunnel, as far as the epidemic itself is concerned.
Easy to say after the markets were up 3%+ today. However everyone knows that fear trounces greed and that markets can fall straight back to 2020 lows and put everyone back into panic mode and a fed that would just print more free trillions for everyone to enjoy...
So you think a worldwide pandemic and complete shutdown of 75% of the earths population and world economies only merits a 3 week bear market?
After the “peak” illness hits its not like everything will return back to normal.
I think the 11 year bull has really really distorted what people expect from the stock market.
It’s not supposed to be free money.
You have to take some lumps along the way, and 3 weeks every 11 years isn’t enough.