Quote from travis:
Good point. I'll give you my info, since I wrote a few posts here stating that a winning method CAN be learned (in my opinion the way to go is automated system trading), and I registered in 2002.
Been learning to trade since 1997. Lost money every year between 1998 and 2006 (I didn't trade with real money in 1997, 2000 and 2007). Made a few thousands (based on my small capital I made about a 100% return) in 2008, and so far breaking even in 2009. I have been fully automated since exactly 35 days ago. I am down 50,000 dollars since the day I started (all money lost between 1997 and 2007).
I think it is worth it, and it can be learned. I just learn things very slowly. I believe there are people who make money consistently and have been making it for years, and that it took them less time than me to learn how to do it. I also believe that they are about the same percentage we are all talking about - around 5% of all traders beginning to trade on a given day. Just an estimate.
But beware, even if today the traders making money were 50% of all traders, what we could still correctly say is that for x number of traders getting started on x day, after a few years, only 5% are still trading and making money consistently. We're not saying that any time only 5% of people are making money, because the percentage should always be around 50%. If prices were random, it would get to zero because of commissions and spread, but prices are not random and some people learn to predict them, and that's why we are talking about 5% (more or less).
A simple example (very simplified), even if prices were random, after one trade only, about 50% of traders will have made money. After two trades only 25% will have made money. Another 50% will be breaking even (one loss and one win, and viceversa). Another 25% will have lost both trades. And so on. In the long run, if prices were random, everyone would break even. BUT you have commissions and spread costs, so everyone will have lost money. But, since prices are not random, things work out differently.
Over the long run (years), "lucky" traders totally cease to exist, and the only traders who are making money, are the ones who learned a winning method. These same traders that are making money after a few years, were losing it at the beginning when they still didn't have a method.
So, as time goes by, and traders keep trading, given a set of traders that started on the same day, the amount of "lucky" winners will decrease (as they will run out of luck), whereas the amount of "methodical" winners will increase (as they will learn how to trade).
I suppose that today out of 100 traders starting to trade in 1990 most will have quit, and among those who are still trading, a majority will be making money - but they will still be only 5% of those who started trading in 1990, even if they represent maybe 75% among those, starting in 1990, who are still trading today.
