obviously your a victim that is why your so certain. Theirs a saying that goes if you can perceive you can achieve. Your perception on your trading will ultimately determine your conclusion. When you trade thinking that the market will take your money in the end, you will inevitably lose.
Where did the "90% are losers myth come from?
- Thread starter human151
- Start date
obviously your a victim that is why your so certain. Theirs a saying that goes if you can perceive you can achieve. Your perception on your trading will ultimately determine your conclusion. When you trade thinking that the market will take your money in the end, you will inevitably lose.
The only way you can have success in anything in life. 1. You have to be willing to have faith. 2. If you mess up learn from it and walk away. 3. Adapt continuously because most traders trade by looking at the rear view mirror instead of looking through the windshield.
As it is the markets in the US will go up today. Thanks to my instincts I picked up 9 million dollars in Call Options on Wells Fargo yesterday. Today I'm looking at the foreign markets it's generally bullish sentiment. What could you expect the markets hit a doji, and when a bearish trend can't sustain its self the bears will bail out and cause a price movement up and of course bulls will roar and bears will get squeezed. All along my 3million loss will be wiped of the slate and I'll walk away with millions more in my account. After all options move up or down in value in proportion to stock at a 3:1 ratio. So basically I will rake a huge payload into my account because I got the smarts and the instincts. You'll never know everything about a trade but as long as you know enough that's all that matters. I'll see you more often sushi but don't worry I'll eat you alive investing is psychology and I'm going to crush you and that nasty attitude of yours.
alexandercho,
Don't worry about Sushi -- he's an example of a type of poster common on ET called a "Troll" -- one with nothing better to do than to try to rile up those legitimately trying to improve their trading and/or assist others. Trolls are speculated to be failed traders who still have some capital remaining (or a day job, or are on the dole), although my guess is there are also trolls who simply enjoy annoying others and have nothing better to do with their time. Sushi may seem like he's trying to make a point, or promote some strong-but-obviously-incorrect opinion, but my guess is that the reality is that he's just trying to mess with people.
ET has a feature called "Ignore" that allows you to ignore all posts by a user. Sushi is on my ignore list, as well as that of many other ET members. I suggest you use it -- click on the user name "Sushi" on one of its posts, and you will see the "Add Sushi to your ignore list" link.
Don't worry about Sushi -- he's an example of a type of poster common on ET called a "Troll" -- one with nothing better to do than to try to rile up those legitimately trying to improve their trading and/or assist others. Trolls are speculated to be failed traders who still have some capital remaining (or a day job, or are on the dole), although my guess is there are also trolls who simply enjoy annoying others and have nothing better to do with their time. Sushi may seem like he's trying to make a point, or promote some strong-but-obviously-incorrect opinion, but my guess is that the reality is that he's just trying to mess with people.
ET has a feature called "Ignore" that allows you to ignore all posts by a user. Sushi is on my ignore list, as well as that of many other ET members. I suggest you use it -- click on the user name "Sushi" on one of its posts, and you will see the "Add Sushi to your ignore list" link.
There are many people defending trading as a profitable business registered in 2002 and later - so they are veterans but none of them -except one - simply said :
" I am succesfull trader. I trade XX years and make a good living. I spend many years studying markets and it paid off."
Why?
" I am succesfull trader. I trade XX years and make a good living. I spend many years studying markets and it paid off."
Why?
I've suffered a substantial drawdown in my first trade yet, by holding confidently the stock when almost everyone else thought it was going belly up, guess the result. Up +60% in a single trade. And I have to point IT HAS BEEN A BAD TRADE because I missed a +100% gain by getting greedy and ended up with a 67% unrealized drawdown for months, which finally turned into a gain.
Then there are suckers which tell 20% a year is a great achievement? If you buy and hold the blue chips in a regular year, yeah, it's a great achievement, for those stocks move very slowly. But there are in-the-gutter beaten down, penny stocks or hype/manipulation stocks which go +400% or more in a single year or two.
There is indeed a simple mid-long term strategy for small caps and microcrap stocks based on hitting home runs, which is the following:
- Diversified, calculated $500-$1000 bets.
- Never sell at a loss directly (LEAP put options to hedge and cut losses if stock craps out are allowed)
- Do not take profit below 200% (unless the stock starts going south of course)
The premise is that if you win 50% of the time, you'll make money because there is a floor (zero) but the sky's the limit.
Good point. I'll give you my info, since I wrote a few posts here stating that a winning method CAN be learned (in my opinion the way to go is automated system trading), and I registered in 2002.
Been learning to trade since 1997. Lost money every year between 1998 and 2006 (I didn't trade with real money in 1997, 2000 and 2007). Made a few thousands (based on my small capital I made about a 100% return) in 2008, and so far breaking even in 2009. I have been fully automated since exactly 35 days ago. I am down 50,000 dollars since the day I started (all money lost between 1997 and 2007).
I think it is worth it, and it can be learned. I just learn things very slowly. I believe there are people who make money consistently and have been making it for years, and that it took them less time than me to learn how to do it. I also believe that they are about the same percentage we are all talking about - around 5% of all traders beginning to trade on a given day. Just an estimate.
But beware, even if today the traders making money were 50% of all traders, what we could still correctly say is that for x number of traders getting started on x day, after a few years, only 5% are still trading and making money consistently. We're not saying that any time only 5% of people are making money, because the percentage should always be around 50%. If prices were random, it would get to zero because of commissions and spread, but prices are not random and some people learn to predict them, and that's why we are talking about 5% (more or less).
A simple example (very simplified), even if prices were random, after one trade only, about 50% of traders will have made money. After two trades only 25% will have made money. Another 50% will be breaking even (one loss and one win, and viceversa). Another 25% will have lost both trades. And so on. In the long run, if prices were random, everyone would break even. BUT you have commissions and spread costs, so everyone will have lost money. But, since prices are not random, things work out differently.
Over the long run (years), "lucky" traders totally cease to exist, and the only traders who are making money, are the ones who learned a winning method. These same traders that are making money after a few years, were losing it at the beginning when they still didn't have a method.
So, as time goes by, and traders keep trading, given a set of traders that started on the same day, the amount of "lucky" winners will decrease (as they will run out of luck), whereas the amount of "methodical" winners will increase (as they will learn how to trade).
I suppose that today out of 100 traders starting to trade in 1990 most will have quit, and among those who are still trading, a majority will be making money - but they will still be only 5% of those who started trading in 1990, even if they represent maybe 75% among those, starting in 1990, who are still trading today.
Rule number one. Never fight with the mystics. You can't win. 3rd in marketwizards? There is ranking in marketwizards. Jack is now ranking traders? What's invetipedia? Wikipedia for traders?
Wait a minute. You trade on a simulator and have grandoise views of your ability? Everyone makes money on simulator. You will be in for a rude awakening.
Wait a minute. You trade on a simulator and have grandoise views of your ability? Everyone makes money on simulator. You will be in for a rude awakening.
Quote from alexandercho:
Ehehehehe, it's funny that my 7th sense managed me massive gains and secured me a bunch of call contracts on wells fargo at 17.50 strike for a cost .05 per contract. As soon as I exercise my option contracts ...
Not to be negative, but don't confuse luck for skill. One big trade is called "statistically insignificant." But ignore Sushi - he seems mentally disturbed
But I will direct you to a public domain where my trading is simulated. I'm on Investopedia and I'm ranked 3rd in Market Wizards 1 Mil no rules
I didn't see any competition called "Market Wizards" when I signed up through the link you provided. What is your user name there?
Ehehehehe, it's funny that my 7th sense managed me massive gains and secured me a bunch of call contracts on wells fargo at 17.50 strike for a cost .05 per contract. As soon as I exercise my option contracts ...
Not to be negative, but don't confuse luck for skill. One big trade is called "statistically insignificant." But ignore Sushi - he seems mentally disturbed
But I will direct you to a public domain where my trading is simulated. I'm on Investopedia and I'm ranked 3rd in Market Wizards 1 Mil no rules
I didn't see any competition called "Market Wizards" when I signed up through the link you provided. What is your user name there?